Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
|
Colts |
$$ |
Patriots |
$$ |
|
Andrew Luck |
$10,000 |
Tom Brady |
$9,000 |
|
Donald Brown |
$6,600 |
Shane Vereen |
$6,400 |
|
T.Y. Hilton |
$7,500 |
LaGarrette Blount |
$5,600 |
|
Coby Fleener |
$4,900 |
Julian Edelman |
$7,200 |
|
Danny Amendola |
$6,800 |
||
|
Kenbrell Thompkins |
$4,500 |
Saturday night should satiate our fantasy hunger as these offenses ranked fourth (NE) and 11th in total scoring this season. Both teams enter this weekend throwing the ball over 36 times per game each, so most of the passing games from each side will be in play.
Luck was a fantasy darling last weekend, and his 41 point effort pushed his salary right behind Peyton Manning this weekend. New England has allowed multiple touchdown passes in five of their past eight games and three or more in four of those. The main concern is that he will cost you 16 percent of your cap, meaning you have to get a 20 point from him, something he’s done just twice over his past nine games.
Brown posted nearly an identical line (102 total yards on 15 touches and two scores) last weekend as he did the first game versus Kansas City (110 total yards on 12 touches and two scores) and gets a really favorable matchup this week. New England has been decimated with injuries through the middle of their defense all season and allowed 134.1 rushing yards per game this season (third most). If Indy would give Brown the amount of touches he should be getting in the first place, 100 total yards would be in the bag.
Hilton takes a massive spike in salary (+$2,100) after roasting the Chiefs for 224 yards and two touchdowns a week ago. Sure Bill Belichek likes to take away the team’s best passing option and maybe he runs into Aqib Talib some, but what really scares me is his cost. Hilton is the type of player that posts monster cumulative totals because of a few hot stretches at a time due to his big play ability. Chasing that ceiling is fantastic when it comes at the cost of a WR3 like last weekend, but he’s the highest priced non Denver wide receiver this weekend. Let someone else chase those points this weekend.
Lost in the Hilton hoopla was that the ghost of Coby Fleener reappeared in the Colts attack last week and against a terrible draw in Eric Berry. Fleener had seven targets, his most since week 14, catching five for 46 yards and a score. New England hasn’t been as terrible on paper versus tight ends as meets the eye, allowing only three to reach 60 yards receiving in a game this year. They also only allowed six touchdowns which were tied for sixth best. In a week where you can avoid Graham and can expect Hilton to draw attention, Fleener isn’t a bad option at all.
Brady is pretty tempting for me this weekend. Not only because of what Alex Smith did last weekend, but because I think he’ll be faded by most other teams. It’s no secret that New England is a different beast without Rob Gronkowski in the game. With him, Brady averaged 17.7 points per game and had four weeks of 20 points or more in Gronk’s seven starts.
Brady and elite production are tied to Gronk but he still roasted Cleveland after Gronk left and then put up another 364 yards against one of the better secondaries in Miami the following week. In the two closing weeks of the season, New England led 17-0 and 16-3 at halftime and put the passing game on cruise control. Those two weeks were the only weeks outside of Miami in week eight when he didn’t attempt at least 31 passes. With the Colts losing Greg Toler for this week and Laron Landry having a concussion, there will be holes and opportunity to make Brady a nice option.
I’m fully aware that I’m setting myself up for failure this week because I’m all in on Blount. He doesn’t have gaudy stats, but has rushed for 40 or more yards in eight of the past nine and has ten or more carries in six of those games. More importantly, once Stevan Ridley was smacked in the nose with a newspaper, Blount has made the most of his opportunities. In the four games since Ridley has been reactivated, it’s been Blount who’s been seeing the important Patriot carries, when the score is close and near the goal line.
Blount vs Ridley the past four weeks
|
RB |
Carries |
Yards |
1st Half Att. |
RZ Att. |
TD |
|
Blount |
59 |
354 |
38 |
9 |
4 |
|
Ridley |
43 |
197 |
19 |
3 |
0 |
I know I’m putting myself in a full Charlie Brown situation here and The Hoodie is going to be Lucy, but all I’m looking for is a dozen points.
Edelman is stealing at his salary, something he’s met four of the past six weeks. Over the final six weeks, he was the third highest scoring receiver overall, behind only Josh Gordon and Eric Decker, leading the league in receptions (53) and scoring four touchdowns. With Toler out, he’ll find his way into accommodating coverage plenty and we know the targets will be there.
My favorite punt play receiver this week is Thompkins. Aaron Dobson is a long shot to play this week with a foot injury he suffered in week 17 at Buffalo. Thompkins will assume all of his snaps from the X position. I don’t feel like the ceiling is tremendously high, but with the injuries in the Indy secondary and at New England receiver, I would rather take a shot at him than any other receiver at basement cost.
