It’s Week 18 of the NFL season, or as it’s been dubbed by TV producers looking for a catchy way to promote it, ‘Wildcard Weekend’.
There are only four games on tap this weekend, meaning we’re going to have difficulty constructing lineups we like with fewer players to choose from.
If you read DFS articles from some of the top DFS experts in the industry, like Jonathan Bales, it’s shaping up to be a tough weekend to play DFS, and he explains why in this article.
I’ve never experienced NFL playoff DFS, so I can’t attest to what he says, but I can see where he’s coming from. I’ve tried my hardest to construct a daily fantasy football lineup I love, and just can’t do it.
With less games, there’s less of a chance to find a minimum priced wildcard player who allows you to afford one of the more high-priced players—a strategy I have come to employ on a DFS site like StarStreet, where you start two flex players. Still, that hasn’t stopped me from trying.
As you know, I usually try to find a pair of quarterbacks first as I build my StarStreet squad, and roster build around those two signal callers.
Since there are only four games this weekend we only have eight quarterbacks to chose from.
Instead of going over each quarterback’s worth on StarStreet, and which pairings I would consider, I’ll let you in on my StarStreet strategy for the week: paying for the two most expensive StarStreet quarterbacks in Drew Brees ($14,500) and Nick Foles ($13,900).
Yes, I’m going with ‘The Mega Powers’ quarterback StarStreet roster building option this week, and I’m doing so because of the potential shoot out the Saints-Eagles game could turn out to be.
If you take a look at the over-unders for the week, the Saints-Eagles game sticks out with the highest over-under of the weekend, at 54 points. The other three games are each at 46.5 points, or a 7.5 points difference.
Another enticing factor in favor of the Brees/Foles stack: both the Saints and the Eagles were in the top ten of scoring teams this past regular season, with the Eagles scoring the fourth most points per game. If you combine the points per game season average of both teams, you get 53.5 points.
Both defenses have had their struggles this year, and in recent weeks we’ve seen the likes of Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton put up 350+ passing yards each, while scoring multiple touchdowns versus the Eagles.
As for the Saints, they ended their regular season allowing Mike Glennon to throw for 219 yards, and two touchdowns, and even Kellen Clemens got in on the action, throwing two touchdowns versus the Saints in Week 15.
Combined, the two defenses have given up 17 passing touchdowns in their last five games.
As for Foles and Brees, Foles is riding a three game streak of multiple passing touchdowns, and Brees sandwiched two single passing touchdown games in weeks 15 and 16 with two four-passing touchdown days in weeks 14 and 17.
There’s a lot to like in this potentially/hopefully high scoring game, but there’s also some aspects that make you wonder if a Brees/Foles stack is worth it at their combined price tag of $28,400.
According to XN Sports’ own Rich Hribar, Brees has a 12:9 passing touchdown to interception ratio on the road, which pales in comparison to his home split of 27:3. However, as Rich also points out, Brees averaged 290 passing yards on the road this season.
The Eagles also have a really good running back named LeSean McCoy, and last week he actually had more carries (27) than Foles had attempts (26).
With McCoy always a prominent part of the Eagles offense you always have to wonder if the run game will negatively impact the passing game flow for the Eagles.
One other note, this one from Pro Football Focus Fantasy’s Patrick Thorman: the Saints have allowed a league low 55 snaps per game during the past month, and the Eagles have allowed the 13th fewest during that time span at a rate of 64.8 snaps.
If the trend continues there might not be enough snaps to go around for a shoot out.
There are also some weather concerns to be wary of, but that’s not really something you can control.
I will fully admit not paying for Brees and Foles, and going with a cheaper Andy Dalton or Alex Smith combo, for example, will make constructing a complete lineup you like easier.
However, with so few football weeks left, swinging for the fences with a Foles/Brees combo could be a contrarian gamble that pays off, if other StarStreet players feel Brees/Foles is too expensive of a combination, and fade it.
Stats used in this article from FantasyData.com, PFF Fantasy, ESPN, and Yahoo! Fantasy Sports
