Week 15 Fantasy Football Defensive Matchup Exploitation: RB

Chris Ogbonnaya fantasy football
Chris Ogbonnaya fantasy football
Nov 3 2013 Cleveland OH USA Cleveland Browns running back Chris Ogbonnaya 25 runs the ball past Baltimore Ravens strong safety James Ihedigbo 32 in the fourth quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium Cleveland won 18 24 Rick Osentoski USA TODAY Sports

Defensive matchups are perhaps the most important thing to consider when setting your running backs. Just consider Bobby Rainey. Rainey couldn’t get much going against the tough defenses in Carolina (17-63-0) and Detroit (18-35-0). On the other hand, he demolished the lackluster defenses in Atlanta (30-163-2) and Buffalo (22-127-1). Most running backs aren’t Jamaal Charles, who is startable in any week against any defense, so we have to strongly consider the defensive matchup for each back on our roster.

This week, Willis McGahee could be out which would allow Chris Ogbonnaya to play feature back against a Bears defense that has allowed an average of 25.3 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Ogbonnaya is also averaging 5.3 yards per carry on the season and 5.8 targets per game over his last six weeks.

It’s tough to trust either but Rashard Mendenhall and Andre Ellington have a great matchup against the Titans. Both had 40-some odd yards against the Rams last week and scored a touchdown. The Titans have given up 12+ fantasy points to Knowshon Moreno, Montee Ball, Donald Brown, Rashad Jennings, Marcel Reece, Donald Brown again, Maurice Jones Drew, Zac Stacy, and Frank Gore over just their last seven games.

If Lamar Miller can’t go, Daniel Thomas could be a sneaky start against a Pats defense that has allowed 28+ fantasy points to opposing running backs in two of their last three weeks. Watch out for the Bills backs though. Jacksonville has held Ben Tate, both Browns backs, both Texans backs, both Cardinals backs, and both Titans backs to 74 yards or less over their last five games.

Our must-starts this week are Eddie Lacy, LeSean McCoy, Alfred Morris, Shane Vereen, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Zac Stacy, Knowshon Moreno, and Marshawn Lynch.

Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, Steven Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead, Toby Gerhart, and Montee Ball all have favorable matchups.

Watch out for Chris Johnson against a vicious Cardinals run D, as well as any back in Carolina, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and on the Giants. I’m iffy about Frank Gore and Bobby Rainey this week too.

Let’s take a look at all of this week’s fantasy football running back matchups.

Browse Matchups by Position: QBRBWRTE

Highly Unfavorable, Unfavorable, Neutral, Slightly Favorable, Favorable

Rank
vs
RB

AVG
RB
FPS
Allowed

Defense

Week 15 Opponents

1

12 Cardinals Chris Johnson, Shonn Greene

2

12.11 Jets DeAngelo Williams, Mike Tolbert, Jonathan Stewart (Q)

3

13.28 Ravens Reggie Bush (Q), Joique Bell

4

13.35 Panthers Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell

5

13.58 Bengals Le’Veon Bell

6

14.03 Lions Ray Rice

7

14.61 Seahawks Andre Brown

8

14.92 Buccaneers Frank Gore

9

15.3 Giants Marshawn Lynch

10

16.19 Colts Ben Tate

11

16.56 Bills Maurice Jones-Drew (Q), Jordan Todman

12

16.7 Browns Matt Forte

13

16.91 49ers Bobby Rainey

14

16.93 Chargers Knowshon Moreno, Montee Ball

15

17.34 Saints Zac Stacy

16

17.45 Eagles Toby Gerhart (Q), Adrian Peterson (D), Matt Asiata

17

17.49 Raiders Jamaal Charles

18

17.87 Chiefs Rashad Jennings (Q), Marcel Reece, Darren McFadden (Q)

19

18.22 Steelers BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Giovani Bernard

20

18.78 Texans Donald Brown, Trent Richardson

21

19.42 Patriots Daniel Thomas, Lamar Miller (Q)

22

19.61 Packers DeMarco Murray, Joseph Randle

23

19.7 Broncos Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead

24

19.93 Jaguars C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson

25

20.93 Dolphins Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley, LeGarrette Blount

26

21.66 Redskins Steven Jackson, Jacquizz Rodgers

27

21.88 Titans Rashard Mendenhall, Andre Ellington

28

21.88 Rams Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram

29

21.9 Falcons Alfred Morris, Roy Helu

30

21.98 Vikings LeSean McCoy

31

22.33 Bears Chris Ogbonnaya, Willis McGahee (Q)

32

23.48 Cowboys Eddie Lacy

*Values based on Yahoo standard scoring.

Browse Matchups by Position: QBRBWRTE

author avatar
Igor Derysh
Igor Derysh is Editor-at-Large at XN Sports and has been featured in The Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Boston Herald, Baltimore Sun, Orlando Sun-Sentinel, and FantasyPros. He has previously covered sports for COED Magazine, Fantasy Alarm, and Manwall.com.