Daily Fantasy Hockey Draft Day Values Update – December 11

I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily fantasy hockey lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.

There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.

Finally, as far as goalies go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the matchup. The same applies for backups with good matchups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the matchups they appear in.

Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftDay values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.

Games are color-coded as follows:

Green means load up. Yellow means grab a couple of players. Red means value plays only.

Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs

The Kings are playing the second game of a back to back after a 6-0 whitewash of the Canadiens last night. The game wasn’t a true 6-0 game in every sense, and rookie goalie Martin Jones played an excellent game.

The Kings’ power play connected for a goal for the first time in nine games (their fifth goal at that point) and got to six goals for the second time this year. They also shut down Montréal’s potent power play, and the Kings have now killed off 24 of their last 25 short handed opportunities.

Toronto had been hit by injuries, but they lost Dion Phaneuf to a suspensions and that is one player they can ill-afford to lose. Phaneuf plays against nothing but top competition – his top opponents this year so far include names like Crosby, Hodgson, Krejci, Fisher, Spezza – and plays top penalty kill minutes. There’s really no one else on their defensive roster that can fill the hole left by Phaneuf.

This is a battle between the number-2 possession team in the NHL and the number-29 team. The number-29 team will be missing their second and third line centre and their top defenseman. I don’t like taking teams on a back-to-back, but I do like the Kings tonight, even though Toronto’s goalies might not be a bad idea. I expect a lot of shots for the Kings, which means a lot of saves for whoever starts for the Leafs.

Philadelphia Flyers at Chicago Blackhawks

Philadelphia is 3-4-1 in their last eight games and 1-2-1 in their last four. After a slow start and a pretty good November, the Flyers now find themselves just three points back of a playoff spot in the meagre Metro Division.

It appears Steve Mason’s save percentage has finally hit the regression button. After a very good first two months, Mason has put up a .884 save percentage in his last three games. The jury is still out on whether he’s “turned it around”, but for now, there’s no doubt that his stats will keep tumbling. Even if he doesn’t start, it doesn’t get much better with Razor Ray Emery.

Chicago is another team playing the second game of a back-to-back, which typically isn’t ideal. However, the Blackhawks are already 4-0-2 this year on the second game of a back-to-back, outscoring their opponents 22-14 over those games. Besides that, they are also 8-0-2 against Eastern Conference teams this year.

This could be a high-scoring game, so I will have guys from both sides on my team at the right price i.e. not the Flyers’ top line.

Minnesota Wild at Anaheim Ducks

The Wild have been better overall lately, but they still have their struggles on the road as they have all season. For the year, the Wild are 5-6-2 away from home, and 0-2-1 in their last three. Over those three games, they’ve been shut out twice, once to the Columbus Blue Jackets. They are a good team, but until they prove to the NHL they can win on the road, I can’t put money on them.

Minnesota’s scoring problems go well beyond the road, too. In their last five home games, they’ve scored 11 goals. In their last eight games overall, they’ve scored 13 goals. This is a problem when you go into Anaheim, as they are tied for fewest goals against in the NHL at home at 1.77 goals against/game (tied for first with New Jersey).

Anaheim also went through a losing streak in November like Minnesota did. Since their losing streak, Anaheim is 6-1-2. There are four home games in there (3-0-1) and they have only allowed six goals against in those four games.

The top line of Getzlaf/Perry/Penner has just been on a complete tear for Anaheim as of late. In their last six games, Ryan Getzlaf has eight points (2G, 6A), Corey Perry has nine points (7G, 2A) and Dustin Penner has five points (2G, 3A). On top of that, Nick Bonino and Cam Fowler – the other two line mates on the Ducks’ top power play unit – have combined for 12 total points in Anaheim’s last five games.

This game is about Anaheim, and I would also have whoever is in net for them.

Good luck with today’s games!

Michael Clifford

Michael Clifford was born and raised in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada and is a graduate of the Unviersity of New Brunswick. He writes about fantasy hockey and baseball for XNSports and FantasyTrade411.com. He can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy for any fantasy hockey questions. Follow @SlimCliffy !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

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