Daily Fantasy Hockey Value Update – December 10, 2013

I will mention that I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.

There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.

Finally, as far as goalies go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.

Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftDay values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.

Games are color-coded as follows:

Green means load up. Yellow means grab a couple of players. Red means value plays only.

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo has been playing better hockey lately, but the results just have not been there for the team. The Sabres have gone 1-7-1 in their last nine games, scoring more than one goal in just three of those games.

There are a plethora of problems in Buffalo; they can’t score on the power play (one for their last 14), they can’t score at even-strength (no more than two ES goals in a game in six straight games), and they just don’t have any depth (they have two players with more than 10 points on the season).

Ottawa has done a very good job of shutting down mediocre teams for goalie Robin Lehner – he only had 44 total shots against Tampa Bay and Detroit combined – and Buffalo’s scoring problems aren’t going to help matters.

I don’t like taking teams on a back-to-back, but I can’t consciously bet on Buffalo. My top play from this game would be Lehner.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals

Tampa Bay, since losing Steven Stamkos, has been pretty inconsistent. They won two games without him, then lost four, then won two etc. The word “identity” gets thrown around WAY too much, but without their top goal scorer, it’s tough to figure out who this team really is. They scored nine goals against Philadelphia and the Rangers at the end of November, and have five goals in four games since. When I have a team I’m this uncertain about, I look for depth plays and that’s it. I can’t put my money on a volatile team in a volatile game.

The Capitals are winners of four of five and have scored nine goals in their last two games. The surprise is that they have done this without their power play for the most part, as they have just one goal with the man advantage of those nine previous goals.

Washington is being powered by their depth as of late. If you look at those recent goals, you see names like Fehr, Chimera, Brouwer, Schmidt, Oleksy, among others. This tells me teams are paying extra-close attention to Alex Ovechkin (no surprise there), and it’s freeing up a lot of room for the secondary players. And there’s a little bit of luck involved, to be sure.

New Jersey Devils at Columbus Blue Jackets

I’m not one to typically make a big deal about a matchup that the New Jersey Devils have, as they don’t score a ton, but they do have 16 goals in their last six games and will be taking on a Columbus team coming off a difficult game against Pittsburgh that is starting their backup goalie on back to back nights.

This one doesn’t really take a lot of analyzing: The Devils are a rested team who is playing really good hockey while Columbus is a tired team playing decent hockey. I wouldn’t be afraid to take a couple value plays from New Jersey.

Los Angeles Kings at Montréal Canadiens

Expect a very, very, close game between these two teams. Over their last 22 combined games, neither has lost in regulation. Los Angeles hasn’t allowed more than three goals against since November 2^nd and the Habs haven’t allowed more than three goals against since November 7.

Neither goalie is confirmed tonight but expect Ben Scrivens and Carey Price to get the nod.

Typically, when you take Canadiens players, the expectation is production on the power play. However, Los Angeles has the fifth ranked penalty kill and have killed 20 of their last 21 short handed situations. On the flip side, Los Angeles hasn’t scored a power play goal in eight straight games while the Habs haven’t allowed a short handed goal in seven straight games.

I would be tempted to take Carey Price, if only because I think he’ll face 30+ shots tonight. That said, I couldn’t bet on the Kings losing just about any game comfortably, so I would probably stay away from this game altogether.

Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers

Last week, Florida went into Detroit and I refused to take players from each team because the game was such a toss-up. This time, not so much.

For those that may have missed it, this came out yesterday:

Helm (shoulder) not practicing today as Wings take the ice at JLA. Datsyuk, slated to return Tuesday, is skating.

— Ansar Khan (@AnsarKhanMLive) December 9, 2013

After missing some time with a concussion, Pavel Datsyuk should be back tonight, on the top line and on the top power play unit. I hate to pin the hopes of an entire team on one player, but I’m not sure Detroit wins this game without him.

That said, I still don’t feel overly comfortable taking Detroit players. Having Datsyuk back is great, but you’d have to think he needs a game or two to get back into the swing of things. I would look for Panthers tonight, but not the HUB line (Huberdeau, Upshall, Bjugstad), as I would expect Datsyuk to be lined up against them.

Michael Clifford

Michael Clifford was born and raised in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada and is a graduate of the Unviersity of New Brunswick. He writes about fantasy hockey and baseball for XNSports and FantasyTrade411.com. He can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy for any fantasy hockey questions. Follow @SlimCliffy !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

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