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Fantasy Football Week 14: DraftDay Value Plays

C.D. Carter identifies the best daily fantasy value plays for week 14.

Cincinnati Bengals running back Gio Bernard
Cincinnati Bengals running back Gio Bernard

Oct 31, 2013; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Cincinnati Bengals running back Gio Bernard (25) runs the ball past Miami Dolphins middle linebacker Dannell Ellerbe (59) in the second half at Sun Life Stadium. Miami won 22-20. Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Alshon Jeffery should’ve been a pulsating red target for anyone piecing together a Week 13 DraftDay lineup.

His price was reasonable — it had dropped, in fact — and he had a mouthwatering matchup against the most porous secondary in the NFL.

Jeffery in Week 13 was another prime example of why it pays to examine week-to-week daily fantasy salary changes for potential deals. It’s a marketplace, after all, so we’re not doing our due diligence if we don’t take a close look at players whose salary has plummeted thanks to a recent lackluster performance or an apparently unfavorable matchup.

Peyton Manning led all quarterbacks in Week 13 scoring after seeing his DraftDay salary drop by $3,500, proving once again that salary changes aren’t always a stop sign for daily gamers.

Here’s a look at Week 14’s most dramatic DraftDay salary decreases, and the value that lies within.

 

Player Opponent Salary change
Russell Wilson San Francisco 49ers -$2,150
Matt McGloin New York Jets -$2,200
Andy Dalton Indianapolis Colts -$1,900
  • Wilson, coming off his Week 13 demolition of the Saints’ deteriorating defense, goes against the 49ers with one of the week’s biggest salary decreases. rotoViz’s GLSP projection app has Wilson scoring a high of 20.2 points (with a median of 13) against San Francisco, which would more than justify his salary. DraftDay’s 11th highest salaried Week 14 quarterback, I see Wilson as this week’s best quarterback value.
  • McGloin is certainly no one’s idea of a head-to-head or 50/50 play, but he could be a decent tournament signal caller with yet another steep salary cut. There are 37 quarterbacks priced above the Oakland quarterback. Even Josh Freeman, somehow, is more expensive than the guy who threw for 255 yards against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. McGloin’s upside is inherent in his matchup: The Jets are allowing 20 schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks, more than every defense outside of Minnesota and Denver.
Player Opponent Salary change
Adrian Peterson Baltimore Ravens -$1,900
Marshawn Lynch San Francisco 49ers -$1,750
Chris Johnson Denver Broncos -$1,450
Gio Bernard Indianapolis Colts -$1,350
  • Bernard jumps off the page here. DraftDay’s 20th highest priced running back this week, Bernard goes against a Colts’ defense giving up 19.1 fantasy points to running backs in PPR leagues. Indy, however, has allowed more than 100 yards to enemy runners in four of their past five contests. In the other one, the Titans ran for 96 yards against the Colts’ unimposing front seven. Bernard’s matchup is much better than it looks.
  • I think Peterson’s Week 14 salary cut is warranted. The Ravens’ defense is no joke against running backs: opposing runners are averaging 15.7 schedule-adjusted fantasy points against Baltimore. The Ravens haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in almost two months, having allowed just two rushing scores all season. There’s a good chance Peterson won’t justify his Week 14 salary, even after the decrease.
Player Opponent Salary change
Antonio Brown Miami Dolphins -$2,000
Rod Streater New York Jets -$1,150
A.J. Green Indianapolis Colts -$1,100
  • The Colts’ secondary is coming apart at the seams. The Indy cover guys have allowed 39 catches for 515 yards to wide receivers over the past three weeks. Green, DraftDay’s fifth highest priced receiver, could very well be the rare elite value play. Green comes into Week 14’s matchup with a median projection of 21.6 points, according to GLSP.
  • Streater is an excellent against-the-grain tournament play against a Jets’ secondary that has given up an average of 199 yards to opposing receivers over the past three weeks. Only the Eagles allow more PPR schedule-adjusted fantasy points to receivers. A McGloin-Streater stack this week on DraftDay doesn’t look like the worst idea. Streater’s high projection is 15.7 points.
Player Opponent Salary change
Delanie Walker Denver Broncos -$2,750
Julius Thomas Tennessee Titans -$500
  • I see Walker — with a median projection of 10.4 — as a borderline must-play against a Broncos’ defense being gouged by opposing tight ends. The Browns and Cardinals are the only teams giving up more PPR fantasy points to tight ends, and with Walker appearing to be Ryan Fitzpatrick’s primary target (outside of Kendall Wright), we couldn’t ask for more this week. There are 25 tight ends priced above Walker. That’s incredible, and likely unjustified. Keep an eye on Walker’s Week 14 status. He’s recovering from a concussion he suffered last week against the Colts.
Optimal 50/50 lineup
N. Foles

L. Bell

A. Brown

Alshon Jeffery

DeSean Jackson

Julius Thomas

Joique Bell

Robbie Gould

Broncos Defense

 

Tournament lineup

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Chris Johnson

Jamaal Charles

Kendall Wright

DeSean Jackson

Julius Thomas

Shane Vereen

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