Daily Fantasy Hockey Update – December 5

I will mention that I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.

There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.

Finally, as far as goalies go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.

Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftDay values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.

Games are color-coded as follows:

Green means load up. Yellow means grab a couple of players. Red means value plays only.

New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres

Fresh off a new seven year extension, Henrik Lundqvist should have a little extra motivation for tonight’s game. Not that he should really need any, he’s already shut them out this year and won two out of three starts against them last year. Sometimes I’ll buy an expensive goalie, and this is one of those times.

To be fair to the Sabres, they have played much better hockey since Ted Nolan took over the coaching reigns (yes, 2-5-1 is an improvement). They are still arguably the worst team in the NHL (Florida is pretty close, with Edmonton making a strong case). Buffalo has allowed seven power play goals against in their last seven games, killing just five of their last eight penalty kills at home.

The Rangers have killed off 13 of their last 14 penalties and shutout the Sabres about a month ago. It might be low-scoring, but the Rangers should have this one.

Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs

Dallas is coming off a very emotional and hard-fought win against the Chicago Blackhawks while the Maple Leafs are coming off a game where they were dominated at home by a very good San Jose team. The Leafs are now 2-5-1 against Western Conference teams not named the Oilers or Flames

Both teams are missing key pieces to their games. Dallas will be without Tyler Seguin again tonight and Stephane Robidas for a while, and the Leafs will again be without Joffrey Lupul, a few facepunchers and Dave Bolland (as per usual). It appears the Leafs are ready to finally stack the top line.

That’s good news for daily fantasy. Those guys have been pretty good together in limited time over the last couple of seasons.

In short, this feels like a trap game for Dallas. That win in Chicago must have been draining for that team (and they got outplayed besides that). I wouldn’t feel too bad about starting Jonathan Bernier in net, but mostly I’ll be looking for value on Toronto’s top line.

San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins

One of the marquee matchups of the night is also going to be missing one of the marquee names.

Oh boy. It’s not to say the Penguins can’t win games without Malkin, but it certainly didn’t get any easier.

The expectation for me (and I’m guessing here) is that Brandon Sutter would join the second line and Jussi Jokinen would jump to the top power play unit. That makes for some pretty good value plays from Pittsburgh.

In a battle of two very good teams, I hesitate to pick either team’s goaltender, there’s just too much uncertainty. I do like picking players off the power play, but not high-priced guys like Sidney Crosby or James Neal.

Boston Bruins at Montréal Canadiens

Today makes three games in four days and four games in six for the Canadiens, while Boston has been off since Saturday. A bad matchup for a team that is probably a bit tired is a team that is great possession-wise. That trend started last night in Montréal’s shootout win, where they barely scraped by (and should have lost to) the Devils.

Boston comes into this game on a big slide with their power play, having gone just 1-for-11 in their last three games. They aren’t having trouble scoring, though, as the team has put away at least two goals in 13 out of their last 14 games.

Montréal is now 7-0-1 in their last eight games, but have given up 30 or more shots in five of those eight, including three straight. This is undoubtedly a team getting close to the end of its rope physically, so I really like Boston’s chances of walking out with the win tonight. Who scores to get them to that win, is a toss-up at best.

Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning

Normally, I wouldn’t have a problem betting against a Steven Stamkos-less Tampa Bay team. The Senators, however, have given up at least two goals in 12 straight games, going 5-7 over that stretch.

Tampa Bay is going through a tough stretch, having been shutout in back-to-back games, managing just 47 shots in those two games. What’s kept them in games is excellent defense, having given up just 23.6 shots against per game over their last three contests.

I wouldn’t expect a ton of goals tonight. As I said, Tampa isn’t scoring lately and these two clubs have converted just two of their last 31 power plays combined, which is about 6.5-percent.

At the outset, I thought this might be a 2-1 game (either way) and nothing that I’ve seen tells me it will be any different. I would be pretty hesitant to use anyone out of this game.

Winnipeg Jets at Florida Panthers

The Jets are coming off a very impressive win in New York without Evander Kane. It doesn’t look like Kane will be ready to go again tonight, but that’s probably irrelevant when playing in Florida.

A couple games ago, I was worried about a “trap game” for Ottawa in Florida. Ottawa went on to win 4-2. I thought for sure that Pittsburgh was in a trap game the game before that in Florida. The Penguins won 5-1.

In short, even if some teams overlook Florida and they are “trap games”, the Panthers are still gonna Panther and they suck something awful.

The Jets have been awful on the power play as of late, having not scored a goal with the man advantage in five straight games, but the Panthers have been just over 63-percent on the penalty kill over their last six games. In other words, if there’s a team that can help get a power play on track, it’s Florida.

I’m staying away from all the goalies in this game because it could be a 2-1 snoozefest or a 6-5 shootout, but I wouldn’t hesitate to use some higher end Jets players.

New York Islanders at St. Louis Blues

All aboard the Spirit of St. Louis!

The Blues have lost their last two games but they were to San Jose and Los Angeles. There’s not a whole lot of shame in that. The flipside of that is they haven’t stopped scoring goals, as they still managed five goals in those two losses.

St. Louis is still one of the best teams in the NHL and has been absolutely dominant over the Eastern Conference so far this year, going 8-2 with a +14 goal differential in 10 games. I don’t see any reason for anything different tonight.

That said, the Islanders are still scoring goals despite having lost seven games in a row, putting up 13 in those contests and less than two goals in just one of them. The good players are still going to get theirs, but they might be (-2) doing it. I’m not taking any high-priced Islanders for that reason, and will look for depth St. Louis players in anticipation of the Backes/Tavares lines matching together.

Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators

There was a time that Carolina was having trouble to score. This is not that time anymore.

The Hurricanes have scored 16 goals in their last five contests and have even managed over 30 shots in back-to-back games, something they didn’t do the entire month of November. I don’t like to draw a lot of straight lines because hockey just doesn’t work that way, but the Hurricanes have scored at least two goals in each of the seven games since Jeff Skinner returned from injury. It’s significant because they scored fewer than two goals in eight of the 13 games they played without him. The top line of he and Eric Staal are pretty, pretty good together.

Nashville has lost three straight games, scoring just three goals over that stretch, without a power play goal in sight. This is a team that relies on their power play to find team success, and it has gone ice cold. This game seems to be all about Carolina.

Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild

These two teams split a home-and-home with each other earlier in the season, with each team scoring five goals in their respective win.

This isn’t the same Minnesota team that it was a month ago, or even a few weeks ago. The Wild have gone 3-4-1 over their last eight games, scoring just 12 goals over that stretch. Jason Pominville and Mikko Koivu have combined for four points in their last 11 games total, while Nino Niederreiter has four points in his last eight games alone. The supporting cast has been floating Minnesota for a little while, and it’s just not good enough.

The Blackhawks have scored a power play goal in back-to-back games but it’s probably irrelevant because Minnesota just doesn’t take many penalties (six in their last four games). Expect Chicago’s rookie backup goalie Antti Raanta to get the start (though it’s not confirmed), which throws a wrench into the plans. In a very small stint, he’s been better than Corey Crawford, but again, it’s just a few games.

I don’t feel very good either way about this game, so be careful how many guys you take from Chicago.

Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers

After a little bit of a slide, the Avalanche have won five of their last six games, and those wins have been against Chicago, Minnesota twice, Phoenix and Los Angeles. That’s very impressive.

One problem with Colorado is they are giving up a pile of shots at times, having allowed at least 37 shots on goal in four of those last six games. They are playing pretty disciplined hockey, though, giving up just 11 short-handed opportunities in those last six games. As a team, Colorado only has two losses on the road this year, and they were in Carolina and St. Louis during their only sustained losing streak of the season. Semyon Varlamov is already confirmed to start tonight.

Edmonton could feast if the Avalanche give up a lot of shots tonight. The Oilers have scored at least two goals in seven of their last eight games. Their problem is they’ve allowed 20 goals over their last six games in which they haven’t pitched a shutout. Edmonton has a problem at times (a lot of the time) with defensive zone coverage, and a quick puck-moving team like Colorado is bad news for that. This could be a 5-3 game for Colorado, but I’m expecting a lot of goals.

Michael Clifford

Michael Clifford was born and raised in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada and is a graduate of the Unviersity of New Brunswick. He writes about fantasy hockey and baseball for XNSports and FantasyTrade411.com. He can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy for any fantasy hockey questions. Follow @SlimCliffy !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

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