Week 14 Fantasy Football Defensive Matchup Exploitation: QB

Josh McCown fantasy football
Josh McCown fantasy football
Nov 24 2013 St Louis MO USA Chicago Bears quarterback Josh McCown 12 throws under pressure of St Louis Rams defensive end Robert Quinn 94 during the first half at the Edward Jones Dome Jeff Curry USA TODAY Sports

No matter what the matchups say, we try to roll with our “studs” since they have the highest upside. On Monday, we saw just what a truly unfavorable matchup can do to even the most prolific passer as Drew Brees was held to a mere 147 yards, a touchdown, and a fumble lost against the Seahawks. It was the first time all season Brees has been held to fewer than 236 yards and only the fourth time that he was held to fewer than 300 yards.

Unfortunately for Brees, he now has to face the only defense allowing fewer fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than the Seahawks – the Panthers. Not once but twice over the next three weeks. Unlike the Seahawks, though, the Panthers can be beaten through the air. Although they’ve held Mike Glennon, Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, and Eli Manning to single-digit fantasy points, they’ve allowed at least 296 passing yards and a touchdown in two of their last three weeks – once to Tom Brady, once to Ryan Tannehill. It’s Drew Brees, I’d roll with him regardless of what we saw on Monday and what the Panthers have done. I would, however, stay away from Colin Kaepernick against a Seahawks defense that held him to just 127 passing yards in their first meeting, picking him off three times and recovering a fumble. I’d also stay away from Russell Wilson, despite a big game against the Saints, since the Niners held him to just 142 passing yards, 33 rushing yards, one touchdown, and one interception in their first meeting and have been very tough on the likes of Cam Newton, Drew Brees, and Robert Griffin over the last four weeks.

The Saints had been stopping quarterbacks but have given up a lot of points to Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson over the last three weeks so I’d roll with the hot Cam Newton. Obviously, Peyton Manning gets to start weekly, no matter the matchup.

Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Chad Henne, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Cassell, and Kellen Clemens are are unstartable this week. The Bears defense can be had through the air so I’d stick with Tony Romo, as well as Carson Palmer who has been red hot and faces a Rams defense that has given up 275+ yards and at least one passing touchdown in three straight weeks.

Robert Griffin is a dangerous start against the Chiefs and I wouldn’t expect big things with his current struggles.

On the favorable side, we have a lot of fringe starters worth putting out there, none more than Josh McCown (or Jay Cutler, if he plays) against a Vikings defense that has yet to hold a quarterback to fewer than 12 fantasy points. They have given up 15+ fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in six of their last seven weeks.

Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Nick Foles, Matt Ryan, EJ Manuel and even Matt McGloin all have highly favorable matchups and, even though none are very attractive outside of Foles, I’d have no qualms about any one of those guys in my lineup.

On the flip side, I’d stay away from Geno Smith no matter how favorable the matchup as well as anyone who starts for Green Bay if Aaron Rodgers can’t go.

Let’s take a look at all of the fantasy quarterback matchups for Week 14.

Browse Matchups by Position: QBRBWRTE

Highly Unfavorable, Unfavorable, Neutral, Slightly Favorable, Favorable

Rank
vs
QB

AVG
QB
FPS
Allowed

Defense

Week 14 Opponents

1

12.01 Panthers Drew Brees

2

12.21 Seahawks Colin Kaepernick

3

13.02 Saints Cam Newton

4

13.43 Titans Peyton Manning

5

13.49 49ers Russell Wilson

6

14.85 Dolphins Ben Roethlisberger

7

15.23 Bengals Andrew Luck

8

15.49 Texans Chad Henne

9

15.7 Steelers Ryan Tannehill

10

15.73 Bears Tony Romo

11

15.99 Chiefs Robert Griffin III

12

16.13 Ravens Matt Cassel

13

16.58 Rams Carson Palmer

14

16.83 Cardinals Kellen Clemens

15

16.87 Patriots Jason Campbell (Q), Alex Tanney, Caleb Hanie, Brandon Weeden (Q)

16

17 Browns Tom Brady

17

17.2 Bills Mike Glennon

18

17.22 Giants Philip Rivers

19

17.36 Colts Andy Dalton

20

18.31 Jets Matt McGloin

21

18.33 Packers Matt Ryan

22

18.82 Lions Nick Foles

23

19.47 Raiders Geno Smith

24

19.71 Falcons Aaron Rodgers (Q), Scott Tolzien

25

20 Jaguars Case Keenum

26

20.01 Buccaneers EJ Manuel

27

20.06 Eagles Matthew Stafford

28

20.17 Broncos Ryan Fitzpatrick

29

20.53 Redskins Alex Smith

30

20.56 Chargers Eli Manning

31

21.85 Vikings Joe Flacco

32

22.61 Cowboys Josh McCown, Jay Cutler (Q)

*Values based on Yahoo standard scoring.

Browse Matchups by Position: QBRBWRTE

author avatar
Igor Derysh
Igor Derysh is Editor-at-Large at XN Sports and has been featured in The Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Boston Herald, Baltimore Sun, Orlando Sun-Sentinel, and FantasyPros. He has previously covered sports for COED Magazine, Fantasy Alarm, and Manwall.com. !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');