Daily Fantasy Hockey Updates and Picks – December 2, 2013

I always like to mention that I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily fantasy hockey lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.

There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.

Finally, as far as goalie’s go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.

Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftDay values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.

Games are color-coded as follows:

Green means load up. Yellow means grab a couple of players. Red means value plays only.

Winnipeg Jets at New York Rangers

Winnipeg continues their road trip tonight with a visit to MSG. While they’ve gone 2-1 so far in three games, they’ve not generated much offense (seven goals total, 25.6 shots/game) and Evander Kane is not playing tonight. Their power play has gone cold as of late, having gone goalless over their last 12 opportunities, and have drawn two or fewer penalties in three of their last four contests. Don’t expect much offense from the Jets tonight.

The Rangers, to compound the Jets’ power play issues, haven’t been shorthanded more than three times in any of their last five games (killing off each one) while their power play has gone 4-for-20 in these contests. The special teams for the Rangers have been much better as of late, and they are riding the hot hand of backup goalie Cam Talbot, who provides great value today.

New Jersey Devils at Montréal Canadiens

The Devils are coming into this game playing probably their best hockey of the season, having gone 8-4-1 in their last 13 games and 5-3 in their last eight. Over their last four games, the Devils have averaged just 19.3 shots for/game, so they aren’t generating a lot of offense. But the lack of offense has been helped out by a pretty good defense, and a penalty kill that has killed off 16 straight shorthanded opportunities.

The Habs have been one of the NHL’s hottest teams for a few weeks now, going 7-1-2 in their last 10 games, with just one regulation loss at home in nearly six weeks. That would make confirmed starter Carey Price a pretty good start tonight. Both goalies had excellent months of November and both teams are playing good defense recently, so I expect a low-scoring affair. If inclined, pick some skaters on the power play from Montréal, particularly the second unit (they play easier minutes at even strength).

Philadelphia Flyers at Minnesota Wild

The Flyers were pummeled with shots in the first game of their road trip, giving up 36 shots to Nashville, a team averaging 28.4 per game on the season. Ray Emery is going to start tonight, and is having a great start to his season with an even-strength SV% over .940 so far this year. That said, the Flyers are 2-2 against the West this year, with wins against Winnipeg and Nashville and losses to Anaheim and Vancouver. This could be another low-scoring game, but not one in the Flyers’ favor.

The Wild have lost four straight games but it’s a bit misleading; they were losses to St. Louis, Phoenix and Colorado twice and they outshot the opposition in each of those games. This will be a game about matchups and if either special team can break out. I would expect the Koivu line and Giroux line to play against each other most of the game, while both power plays have combined to go 0-for-17 in recent contests.

St. Louis Blues at Los Angeles Kings

As a hockey fan, this is one of the big matchups of the week for two of the best teams in the NHL. As a bettor and fantasy player, I have no idea which direction to take in this game.

Los Angeles is struggling offensively, which has been pretty much their M.O. for three years now: L.A. has seven goals in their last five games, going 0-for-18 on the power play over that stretch. They weren’t playing world-beaters either, there are losses to New Jersey and Calgary in there. That’s not a good mixture going against a team averaging the third-fewest shots against/game on the year. They are also giving up way too many penalties as well, with 21 short-handed opportunities given up in their last five games.

The Blues may be getting a little fatigued, having played 15 games in 29 days in the month of November. This, in part, has led to them giving up 30+ shots in three of their last five games, after giving up 30-plus shots in just three of their first 20 games. That has been offset by the play of Jaroslav Halak, who has allowed just five goals in his last five games. St. Louis is still scoring just fine, potting 22 goals in their last six contests, so they could get a couple past Ben Scrivens. I do expect this to be another tight-checking affair, though. This is another game where I would look for skilled depth players with better head-to-head match-ups.

I anticipate low scoring games tonight pretty much across the board and the game with the most blowout potential would be the Jets/Rangers. The most expensive players won’t necessarily be the most productive players, as there will be a lot of top line matchups like Koivu-Giroux, Little-Stepan, Kopitar-Backes. Best of luck!

Michael Clifford

Michael Clifford was born and raised in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada and is a graduate of the Unviersity of New Brunswick. He writes about fantasy hockey and baseball for XNSports and FantasyTrade411.com. He can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy for any fantasy hockey questions. Follow @SlimCliffy !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

See Full Bio