Daily Fantasy Hockey Update: November 30, 2013

San Jose Sharks center Joe Thornton
Nov 27 2013 San Jose CA USA San Jose Sharks center Joe Thornton 19 scores the game winning goal against Los Angeles Kings goalie Ben Scrivens 54 during the shootout at SAP Center at San Jose The San Jose Sharks defeated the Los Angeles Kings 3 2 in an eight round shootout Kelley L Cox USA TODAY Sports

I will mention that I generally do not pick two players playing against each other in the same game for a daily lineup. The same applies for a goalie and a player from opposite teams. You might see two players among the “value picks” from opposite teams, but that doesn’t mean you should take them both. No matter the value, you’re also likely cannibalizing points, so any gains made below a certain price point – the point where production and cost intersect – can be lost if production declines overall as well.

There are many things that determine value: The player’s history (both short and long-term), the price, recent production, opponent, line matching at even-strength, power play time and injuries are just some of the factors to consider. The “Top Value” doesn’t necessarily mean the cheapest player, either.

Finally, as far as goalie’s go, it’s the one position I’ll pay through the nose for if I really like the match-up. The same applies for back-ups with good match-ups. In a given night, with a full slate of games, I won’t have more than three different goalies across all my lineups, usually two. I’ll name the goalies I like specifically in the match-ups they appear in.

Here is today’s slate of games (and DraftDay values). Reminder: check Left Wing Lock for up-to-the-minute information on starting goalies.

Confidence in games are color-coded as follows:

Green means load up. Yellow means grab a couple of players. Red means value plays only.

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Today is a very weird day in the NHL schedule:

  • Typically, Thursdays are a heavy NHL schedule, which gives most teams Friday night off.
  • With American Thanksgiving this week, and only two games on Thursday, we had 12 games yesterday.
  • Of the 22 teams involved in the 11 games on today’s schedule, 17 of them are playing the second night of a back-to-back. The only teams coming in fresh are Florida, Nashville, Vancouver, Phoenix and Los Angeles. Of those five teams, far-and-away the best match-up is Los Angeles at home to Calgary. Ben Scrivens is the fourth-most expensive goalie on Draft Day today, but it’s worth it considering the amount of uncertainty a day like today brings.
  • What the plethora of back-to-back games means is that there will be very few morning skates, many game-time decisions, and a lot of last-minute goalie announcements. So if you’re the type to “set it and forget it”, for today, just throw $10 in a garbage disposal, avoid the heartache, and carry on with your day.
  • The one solid piece of advice I can give you (that has been shown to be very accurate) is to not have any goalie on your team that also played last night. That means a lot of back up goalies, and potential value plays in net.

Under circumstances like today, previewing games is fairly pointless. It’s anyone’s guess what the roster composition will be and line combinations will look like, also to who will be in nets. Rather, I’ll provide the value plays that I like in each game as always (based off previous matchups and projected matchups), and as we get closer to game time, I will be on Twitter @SlimCliffy to help you sort through the mess that is the last day of November.

As I write this, I see this tweet pop up from Brett Cyrgalis, a sports writer for the New York Post:

In case you were wondering why it’s impossible to predict a day like today, and why it’s prudent to wait until closer to the games, it’s tweets like that.

Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Jaromir Jagr

(NJD)

$9650

Ville Leino

(BUF)

$5500

Travis Zajac

(NJD)

$7200

Tyler Myers

(BUF)

$7600

Dainius Zubrus

(NJD)

$5850

Washington Capitals at New York Islanders

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Troy Brouwer

(WSH)

$8000

Marcus Johansson

(WSH)

$8200

Nicklas Backstrom

(WSH)

$11,000

John Carlson

(WSH)

$11,300

Jason Chimera

(WSH)

$6450

Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Pascal Dupuis

(PIT)

$9350

Jonathan Huberdeau

(FLA)

$7900

Aleksander Barkov

(FLA)

$6650

Dmitry Kulikov

(FLA)

$6350

Nick Bjugstad

(FLA)

$6350

Columbus Blue Jackets at Boston Bruins

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Jarome Iginla

(BOS)

$9700

Carl Soderberg

(BOS)

$8750

David Krejci

(BOS)

$9150

Ryan Murray

(CBJ)

$5150

Reilly Smith

(BOS)

$6500

Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Brian Gionta

(MTL)

$7700

Alex Galchenyuk

(MTL)

$8150

 

Tyler Bozak

(TOR)

$6550

Jake Gardiner

(TOR)

$6250

Michael Bournival

(MON)

$6100

Philadelphia Flyers at Nashville Predators

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Craig Smith

(NSH)

$7750

Colin Wilson

(NSH)

$6950

David Legwand

(NSH)

$7950

Seth Jones

(NSH)

$7250

Gabriel Bourque

(NSH)

$6900

Chicago Blackhawks at Phoenix Coyotes

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Shane Doan

(PHX)

$10,500

Antoine Vermette

(PHX)

$7750

Mike Ribeiro

(PHX)

$9350

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

(PHX)

$8700

Brandon Pirri

(CHI)

$6100

Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Nino Niederreiter

(MIN)

$7550

Ryan O’Reilly

(COL)

$8900

Matt Duchene

(COL)

$11,850

Andre Benoit

(COL)

$6750

Charlie Coyle
(MIN)

$6850

Calgary Flames at Los Angeles Kings

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Dustin Brown

(LAK)

$9500

Mike Richards

(LAK)

$8900

Anze Kopitar

(LAK)

$11,400

Jake Muzzin

(LAK)

$6650

Tyler Toffoli

(LAK)

$6600

Anaheim Ducks at San Jose Sharks

Top RW Value

Top LW Value

Top C Value

Top D Value

Bargain Bin

Brent Burns

(SJS)

$9400

Patrick Marleau

(SJS)

$11,950

Nick Bonino

(ANH)

$7750

Justin Braun

(SJS)

$6400

Teemu Selanne

(ANH)

$5900

Good luck with today’s games, and feel free to tweet me any time for lineup advice!

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