For those who rolled with Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker Thanksgiving night against Pittsburgh: we salute you.
The fist-pumping purple-clad kicker hit all five of his field goals Thursday night, proving once more that predicting kicker performance makes other fantasy football prognostications look like scientific certainties.
The Steelers, headed into the Thanksgiving title, were ranked 14th in schedule-adjusted points given up to kickers. Pittsburgh ranked 10th in red zone touchdown percentage — the other stat we examine when sifting through kicker options — so I suppose there was some reason to believe Tucker could be a prime Week 13 play.
I deployed Mason Crosby in a couple leagues. Let’s just say I was far more excited about his prospects against the Lions — who give up more points to kickers than almost any defense — before Matt Flynn was forced to, you know, throw the ball.
One of my Week 12 choices, Graham Gano, finished in last week’s top-10, collecting 10 points on his way to a seventh place finish. Miami blocked a first quarter 35-yard Gano attempt that would’ve made him the week’s fourth highest scoring kicker.
Here’s I’m doing in this space: I examine two numbers to identify favorable kicker matchups: 4for4′s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to kickers and a defense’s red zone touchdown scoring percentage, or the frequency in which a defense allows an offense to cross the goal line once inside the 20-yard line.
The lower the percentage, the better for our kickers.
Blair Walsh (MIN) vs. Chicago Bears
Everyone’s favorite 2012 kicker is this year’s 17th ranked kicker through 12 weeks — an expected regression at a position with more than its fair share of it.
Chicago is giving up 9.3 adjusted fantasy points to kickers, worse than all but four teams. The Bears’ red zone touchdown percentage isn’t all that appealing at 54 percent, but it’s not enough for me to fade Walsh this week. The horrendous Chicago defense has led to mostly positive game flow that makes fantasy production a bit more predictable.
With Adrian Peterson set to take on what appears to be the league’s worst front seven, I expect Minnesota to have few problems moving the ball on Sunday.
Walsh is averaging 10.6 fantasy points per game over his past three, for whatever that’s worth.
Jay Feely (ARI) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles over the past three weeks are sporting a sparkling 20 percent red zone touchdown rate, the best in the NFL. Philly has a season-long 47 percent red zone touchdown rate, better than all but five defenses.
Another little nugget for those using Feely: the Eagles have been much more successful in shutting down opponents in the red zone at home than on the road.
Feely, who went nuclear last week against the Colts (18 points), gets another highly favorable matchup here, as the Eagles are permitting 8.3 schedule-adjusted fantasy points to kickers this season. Feely has scored nine or more fantasy points seven times this season, and ranks as fantasy’s ninth highest scoring kicker through 12 weeks.
