Fantasy Football Week 13: DraftDay Value Plays

Alshon Jeffery
Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery
Nov 17 2013 Chicago IL USA Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery 17 with the ball during the second half against the Baltimore Ravens at Soldier Field Chicago won 23 20 in overtime Dennis Wierzbicki USA TODAY Sports

Eddie Lacy, much to the chagrin of those who didn’t have the bulky bruiser in their Week 12 daily lineups, finished the week as fantasy’s No. 3 running back.

Lacy had one of the steepest salary decreases last week on DraftDay.

Lacy’s Week 12 performance — 27.8 PPR fantasy points on the strength of 110 rushing yards — is a prime example of why we sift through the week’s biggest DraftDay discounts for value plays. It shouldn’t be the foundation of how we construct our lineups, of course, but digging through the discount bin has its place in daily fantasy.

Keenan Allen was another Week 12 value play who shined in daily lineups after seeing his DraftDay salary slashed in the lead-up to the Chargers clash with Kansas City.

I’ve learned this season that what seem like hideous matchups aren’t so ugly once you dig into the numbers and consider the fantasy points you’ll need to justify a guy’s (reduced) daily fantasy price.

Here are players who have seen the most drastic DraftDay salary cuts from Week 12 to Week 13.

Player Opponent Salary change
Peyton Manning Kansas City Chiefs -$3,500
Drew Brees Seattle Seahawks -$3,150
Andrew Luck Tennessee Titans -$900
  • Welcome to daily fantasy Twilight Zone, where even Manning is subject to a major price decrease after his clunker of a Week 12 performance. Peyton is still DraftDay’s priciest signal caller, but his Week 13 salary isn’t a lot higher than the other elite options for the first time since Week 1. The Chiefs’ once-lethal front seven gets no pressure on the passer — thanks in part to last week’s injuries — so Manning should have a clean pocket from which to operate. He could easily justify his Week 13 price.
  • Luck, after his third consecutive salary cut, is DraftDay’s 15th highest priced quarterback. There’s value here, as the Colts’ offense has benefited from consistent garbage time production in recent weeks. While it’s tough to bank on game flow in any fantasy format, you don’t need a juicy stat line from Luck to justify his Week 13 salary.
Player Opponent Salary change
Stevan Ridley Houston Texans -$3,150
Zac Stacy San Francisco 49ers -$3,000
Darren Sproles Seattle Seahawks -$2,150
  • Ridley, after last week’s apocalyptic fumble that put him on the bench for most of the rest of the matchp with Denver, is too risky to plug and play. New England beat writers have reported that Ridley will be in a timeshare — at best — with the Patriots’ other “big backs,” while Shane Vereen maintains his much more stable role in the Pats’ resurgent offense.
  • There are now 23 running backs priced ahead of Sproles, who missed last week’s game in Atlanta. The Saints often use Sproles to counter ferocious pass rushes like Seattle’s, so the scat back might very well have a big role in Monday night’s matchup. Sproles, like Vereen and Danny Woodhead, are much more valuable on full PPR sites like DraftDay than other half-PPR daily sites.
Player Opponent Salary change
Alshon Jeffery Minnesota Vikings -$1,500
T.Y. Hilton Tennessee Titans -$1,350
Eric Decker Kansas City Chiefs -$900
  • Jeffrey, more than anyone else, is a screaming value at his reduced Week 13 price. Perhaps his salary dropped after his lackluster Week 12 performance against an exploitable St. Louis secondary. Let’s remember that Jeffrey is Chicago’s No. 1b wide receiver, is the sixth most targeted receiver over the past four weeks. Josh McCown loves him dearly. The rotoViz GLSP projection app puts Jeffrey at 19.5 fantasy points as his Week 13 ceiling.
  • Hilton is getting about eight targets a game — a fact that doesn’t soothe those who played the speedster last week against Arizona. That target volume gives Hilton a decent fantasy floor. Keep an eye on Hilton’s injury status — he suffered a shoulder injury against the Cardinals — and consider plugging him in as DraftDay’s 15th highest priced receiver.
Player Opponent Salary change
John Carlson Chicago Bears -$1,800
Delanie Walker Indianapolis Colts -$750
  •  Carlson has seen a marked jump in pass route running — something we always look for in low-priced options. The lumbering purple-helmeted tight end has a median projection of 8.1 this week against a Chicago defense that allows 8.6 schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends. Carlson seems like a decent tournament play if you’re looking to skimp on tight end to splurge on wide receivers and quarterbacks. He’s this week’s 21st highest priced DraftDay tight end.

 

author avatar
C.D. Carter
C.D. Carter is a reporter, author of zombie stories, writer for The Fake Football and XN Sports. Fantasy Sports Writers Association member. His work  has been featured in the New York Times. !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');