Fantasy Hockey: Power Play Point Potential Rankings

Ryan Johansen Fantasy Hockey
Nov 20, 2013; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Columbus Blue Jackets center Ryan Johansen (19) controls the puck against the Calgary Flames during the overtime period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Columbus Blue Jackets won 2-1. Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

Another week, another update of the PPPP Rankings. In this week’s analysis, the focus has been the improvements and regressions of various teams over the past month. There are teams that have remained extremely consistent, while many have begun to turn their seasons around. Others, obviously, have turned for the worse.

To date, there have been 1912 goals scored in the NHL and 455 of them have been with the man advantage, which is almost 24 percent. Nearly a quarter of all goals are scored on the power play and there are teams scoring over thirty percent of their goals with the man advantage. Keep an eye on trends, note mismatches, and look at potential players to add based on their involvement on their team’s power play. It all helps.

You can download this week’s Power Play Point Potential Rankings below:

Offensive PPPP Rankings

Defensive PPPP Rankings

Last Week’s Defensive PPPP Rankings

Last Week’s Offensive PPPP Rankings

Explanation of the PPPP Rankings

2013 PPPP Rankings and Power Play Statistics

*Statistics through November 25th, 2013.


Getting Defensive

  • The Penguins’ are getting it down shorthanded, spending very little time a man down helps, but their penalty kill percentage has improved 5.1 percent since October 24. The Penguins were the 19th most difficult matchup then, now they’re the second toughest in the NHL.
  • Similarly, the Lightning have improved their play shorthanded as well. In the same time span, they have dropped from the eighth easiest matchup to the 26th. In the period of October 24 to November 25, their penalty kill improved from 79.5 percent to 86.2.
  • The Oilers are another team who have improved drastically in the past month. Killing at just a 73.7 percentage on October 24, they have improved to 82.6, which was enough for them to drop 13 spots. They’re currently out of favorable matchup territory and below the league’s average PPPP Defensive Ranking.
  • Lastly, another team who were sure to improve and has done just that are the St. Louis Blues. Currently sitting at a 84.6 percent kill rate, they have dropped 17 spots since October 24, when they were killing  at just 77.4 percent. They’re the seventh most difficult matchup in the league.
  • With nearly two months of data, it is safe to consider the Vancouver Canucks, Boston Bruins and New Jersey Devils the toughest matchups in the league.
  • The Maple Leafs are in a free fall over the past month. Once relying on their penalty kill and once fourth toughest matchup on October 10, the Leafs now sit as the 14th most favorable matchup and just below the league’s average Defensive PPPP Ranking. This is a matchup to target going forward until the Leafs show signs of turning it around.
  • Neither the Islanders or Blackhawks are showing any signs of improving while shorthanded. The Blackhawks are winning anyway, the Islanders are not. Similarly, the Flames and Coyotes continue to be among the most favorable matchups.


On the Offense

  • Detroit’s power play is clicking. The Red Wings have improved 5.6 percentage points since October 24 and currently sixth in the Offensive PPPP Rankings. On October 24 the Red Wings were 20th.
  • Although, the Flyers are still deep down the rankings, their improvement has been impressive. Their power play success rate has almost doubled, going from 8.1 to 15.6 percent since October 24, while they have climbed six spots. This is a trend that should continue.
  • Similarly, the Ducks are beginning to climb out of the basement of the rankings. In the same time period they have improved their power play success rate 6.7 percent, up from a dismal 7.7 percent on October 24. With Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and Cam Fowler‘s reemergence they should continue their ascend.
  • The Oilers’ recent success with the man advantage shouldn’t be over looked either. They have climbed 14 spots and improved their power play percentage 7.9 percent since October 24 and are well above the league average Offensive PPPP Ranking.
  • As projected last week, the Penguins are in fact on the rise. After dropping five spots last week, they climbed back six spots and are currently the fifth highest ranked team. The Penguins are healthy and potent with the man advantage. This team could be atop of the rankings as soon as next week.
  • The Capitals, Blues and Leafs have been ranked one through three the past two weeks. There is no reason to expect significant change, as all three teams have solid offensive weapons.
  • The New York Islanders are beginning to look as bad in the Offensive PPPP Rankings as they do in the Defensive ones. On October 24, they were the fourth highest ranked team, converting with the man advantage at 28.1 percent. Currently, they’re only converting at 16.5 percent and are ranked 20th.
  • The Sharks were a top ten team in the rankings since October 19. That isn’t the case, as a cold spell with the man advantage has the Sharks slipping down to 12th in the rankings. They boast a high-end power play though, so this is likely an anomaly. If there is a discount on one of their top weapons, pounce.
  • After two months, it is fair to declare the Winnipeg Jets, Vancouver Canucks and Florida Panthers a mess with the man advantage. The Dallas Stars aren’t far behind either. All but the Panthers have the potential, however, unless you can get a bargain on one of their skill players, it might be best to avoid until there are signs of improve.


Player Notes

C/RW Ryan Johansen, Columbus Blue Jackets: Johansen was fast tracked to the NHL and is beginning to show glimpses of the offensive potential that made him the fourth overall pick in 2010.

C/LW Patrik Elias, New Jersey Devils: Unbelievably available in almost half of Yahoo! leagues, Elias is a proven point producer. He has a chance to crack 400 goals and 1000 career points this year.

C/LW Brayden Schenn, Philadelphia Flyers: It has been a solid two week stretch for Schenn who is fitting in nicely on the Flyers second line and power play unit. He has five goals and 23 penalty minutes in November.

C/LW Valtteri Filppula, Tampa Bay Lightning: Playing alongside Marty St. Louis has helped Filppula post six points in his past six games. The dual position eligibility to a bonus.

C/RW Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avelanche: The rookie isn’t lighting up the scoreboard, but he should only get stronger as the season goes on. He is getting more and more power play time too.

LW Dustin Penner, Anaheim Ducks: Six goals, 17 points, a +18 rating and six power play points, why is Penner so widely available? It certainly has nothing to do with his linemates, I hope.

LW David Perron, Edmonton Oilers: There isn’t a fantasy hockey stat Perron doesn’t contribute in, although, it would be nice to see him playing with more skilled players. Worth a look this week especially.

RW Wayne Simmonds, Philadelphia Flyers: Simmonds has been scorching hot for the Flyers of late and boasts offensive upside along with his bang and crash style. He also skates on the Flyers top power play unit.

D Jakub Kindl, Detroit Red Wings: A rolling power play and more opportunities to skate with the man advantage has lead Kindl to notch three power play helpers in his last six games.

D Jake Gardiner, Toronto Maple Leafs: Slowly, Gardiner is becoming more involved in the Leafs’ offense and getting additional minutes. He hasn’t cracked the top power play unit, but he is the quarterback on the second.

D Eric Gelinas, New Jersey Devils: A relative unknown, Gelinas has made his mark thus far, with eight points in 15 games. Seven of those points have come with the man advantage and the rookie is worth a look.

D Paul Martin, Pittsburgh Penguins: Currently skating with the top power play unit, Martin is worth a roster spot as long as that lasts. With four points in his last four games, it might just be his spot to lose.


The Week at a Glance

Wednesday, November 27th – Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres: The Habs and especially Max Pacioretty are rolling along their past three games. The Sabres are a matchup to target.

Wednesday, November 27th – Phoenix Coyotes at Minnesota Wild: An interesting matchup here. Both teams are top ten favorable matchups with top ten rankings in the Offensive PPPP Rankings. Furthermore, they’re seventh and eighth in the standings.

Wednesday, November 27th – Chicago Blackhawks at Calgary Flames: The Hawks are converting with the man advantage better than a fifth of the time, the Flames are killing at just over a fourth of the time. Load up your Hawks in Daily Games.

Friday, November 29th – Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders: The red hot Wings’ power play gets a date in Long Island to beat up on the league’s most favorable matchup.

Friday, November 29th – Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks: With the Ducks trending in the right direction and a vulnerable Flames team visiting the Pond, there is a lot to like for the Ducks on the power play.

Friday, November 29th – Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres: The Leafs are Sabres aren’t the friendliest of foes, so expect ample power play opportunities for the Leafs to feast on the Sabers weak penalty kill.

Saturday, November 30th – Chicago Blackhawks at Phoenix Coyotes: Last time these two met I suggested there could be 11 scored, there were nine. Expect another high scoring tilt.

Saturday, November 30th – Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers: This is an obvious mismatch, but the Panthers beat up on the Pens already this season. Expect some redemption and a big game from Pittsburgh’s best players.

Saturday, November 30th – Washington Capitals at New York Islanders: The highest ranked team in the Offensive PPPP Rankings visits the most favorable team in the Defensive PPPP Rankings, don’t over think this one.

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