Two of our three Week 11 kicker targets posted top-10 stat lines. The other legged a goose egg, now known affectionately as a Kai-egg.
It was Washington kicker Kai Forbath whose team put up 16 points against the Eagles without a single field goal or extra point. It was amazing in a way that makes you want to quit fantasy football, move to an abandoned cabin in the woods and live there in solitude forevermore.
Robbie Gould and Shaun Suisham, our other Week 11 selections, finished fifth and seventh among kickers, respectively. I avoided both Gould and Suisham for fear of the apocalyptic weather expected in Chicago and Pittsburgh. I went with Forbath in almost every daily league.
As a review of what, exactly, I’m doing in this space: I examine two numbers to identify favorable kicker matchups: 4for4′s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to kickers and a defense’s red zone touchdown scoring percentage, or the frequency in which a defense allows an offense to cross the goal line once inside the 20-yard line.
The lower the percentage, the better for our kickers.
Kickers must be facing one of the top-10 most generous teams that also allows opponents to score touchdowns in the red zone less than 50 percent of the time.
Any kicker facing the Falcons, Lions, Bears, Ravens, or Dolphins should be high on your list, no matter what I ramble about here.
Ryan Lindell (TB) at Detroit Lions
Lindell gets the best of all worlds this week: he’s kicking indoors against a defense that only allows opponents to score red zone touchdowns 39 percent of the time. Detroit’s defense has been even better of late, posting a 33 percent red zone touchdown rate over their past three contests.
Kickers score an average of 10.3 adjusted fantasy points against the Lions. Lindell, after a sluggish start to 2013 — along with the rest of his dysfunctional team — has 19 points over Tampa’s past two games.
Nick Folk (NYJ) at Baltimore Ravens
Cast up a prayer that Geno Smith doesn’t foil our best-laid plans this week. Folk, trapped by the confines of Gang Green’s dismal Week 11 performance, posted two points in Buffalo.
Folk gets the Ravens this week, a team that has been among the 10 most generous to opposing kickers throughout the 2013 campaign. Baltimore allows 9.4 adjusted points to kickers and sports a league-best 32 percent red zone touchdown rate.
The Ravens, incredibly, only allow opponents to score a touchdown in the red zone 11 percent of the time at home. No team is in the same zip code of that ridiculous rate.
Folk, aided by a few lengthy game-winning kicks, has posted double-digit fantasy points six times this season.
Graham Gano (CAR) at Miami Dolphins
Only three teams, the Falcons, Bears, and Lions, give up more schedule-adjusted point to kickers than the Dolphins. Miami’s defense barely makes the red zone touchdown cut, as they allow opponents to post six points in half of their possessions inside the 20 yard line.
Gano has double-digit outputs to his name in two of his past four games. He’s missed one field goal all season.
