Sifting through the bin of players who saw steep Week 11 salary decreases on DraftDay paid big dividends — and perhaps big money — for daily gamers who spotted value in those market changes.
That’s the aim of this column — to identify DraftDay commodities whose salaries plummet from week to week, and to take an obsessive look at whether that change presents an opportunity. Most players’ salaries drop for good reason, and that’s just as critically important to realize.
Last week we identified Chris Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Coby Fleener and Vernon Davis as targets who had seen their Week 11 salaries plummet. CJ?K finished the week as fantasy’s eighth highest scoring running back, Jackson posted a top-3 stat line, and Fleener and Davis each put up top-12 tight end numbers.
Some Week 11 misses included Frank Gore, Jimmy Graham, and Eric Decker. Like I said, the DraftDay powers that be know what they’re doing when they drop a guy’s salary.
Digging through the week’s biggest salary changes has proven more than a little useful for me this year, and I think you’ll find the same.
The trick is finding where opportunity lies, and — more importantly — where it doesn’t. Let’s take a look at which guys have seen the most dramatic week-to-week salary decreases, and explore any opportunity in those market changes.
| Player | Opponent | Salary change |
| Jason Campbell | Pittsburgh Steelers | -$2,050 |
| Robert Griffin III | San Francisco 49ers | -$1,950 |
| Philip Rivers | Kansas City Chiefs | -$1,900 |
| Andrew Luck | Arizona Cardinals | -$1,450 |
- The 49ers’ defense is allowing an astoundingly low 10.8 schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers, making RGIII a guy to avoid in all daily formats, even with the price drop. Griffin has saved a few hideous fantasy days with garbage time production — a tough trend to bank on, especially against a stout secondary. The rotoViz GLSP projection tool puts RGIII’s median output at a measly 11.3 points.
- Arizona’s secondary isn’t the stalwart unit its said to be. The Cardinals have allowed more than 250 passing yards in seven of their 10 contests, allowing multiple touchdown throws in six games. Luck is DraftDay’s eighth most expensive Week 12 signal caller. He’s not a screaming value, but the $1,450 discount shouldn’t be ignored.
| Player | Opponent | Salary change |
| Eddie Lacy | Minnesota Vikings | -$3,100 |
| Adrian Peterson | Green Bay Packers | -$2,950 |
| Andre Ellington | Indianapolis Colts | -$2,500 |
| Reggie Bush | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -$1,250 |
- Woe is Lacy. Life without Aaron Rodgers is predictably abysmal for the rumbling chunk of a runner, though he saved his Week 11 line with a one-yard score against the Giants. Lacy’s salary dip reflects his new reality: as the focal point for defenses, who no longer show the Packers consistent six and seven man fronts. Lacy’s high GLSP projection (17.3 points) is high enough, I think, to roll with DraftDay’s sixth highest salaried running back if you’re so inclined.
- Teams have rushed for at least 116 yards against the Colts in four of their past six games. Ellington saw his DraftDay price crash after an absolute dud against the Jaguars in Week 11, but I’d still peg the rookie as a great tournament play. Indianapolis has the league’s 14th rated run defense, according to Pro Football Focus.
- Bush, even after the salary dip, is the third priciest runner on DraftDay. He’ll likely take back his rightful role as the Lions’ primary back. He’s not a “mudder,” as Jim Schwartz so eloquently said, which was why Bush watched most of last week’s game from the bench. This one will be played indoors, free of mud. And mudders.
| Player | Opponent | Salary change |
| Pierre Garcon | San Francisco 49ers | -$2,300 |
| Keenan Allen | Kansas City Chiefs | -$2,250 |
| T.Y. Hilton | Arizona Cardinals | -$2,100 |
| Rishard Matthews | Carolina Panthers | -$1,500 |
- Garcon is still DraftDay’s eighth most expensive Week 12 receiver. I’m avoiding him everywhere, as the 49ers are a top-20 defensive unit in schedule-adjusted points allowed to wide receivers.
- Matthews is now the 40th priciest receiver on DraftDay after a $1,500 Week 12 salary drop. Matthews won’t come close to posting his giant Week 10 output, but even with a meager five Week 11 targets, he scored 9.2 fantasy points. The Panthers will shred Miami’s porous offensive line and likely force Ryan Tannehill to target his slot target — Matthews — and tight end Charles Clay (the guys running short routes). Carolina allows the third fewest adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers.
| Player | Opponent | Salary change |
| Jordan Reed | San Francisco 49ers | -$2,650 |
| Martellus Bennett | St. Louis Rams | -$400 |
- Reed is but part of the wholesale Week 12 discount on Washington’s offensive weapon, though he’s still DraftDay’s fourth most expensive tight end. Monitor Reed’s availability for Monday night’s tilt against the 49ers. He’s recovering from a concussion that knocked him out of Week 11’s game in the first quarter. Reed’s GLSP projection is surprisingly hopeful: 11.9 points as a median, with 15.9 as a high. He’s as much of a value as you’re going to find among tight ends this week.
- The Rams, amazingly, are holding tight ends to 8.2 adjusted fantasy points per game. Only the Chiefs are better against tight ends. Bennett, DraftDay’s 15th highest salaried tight end, is too touchdown reliant in this one to play him in head to heads and 50/50 formats. You can do better.
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