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Daily Fantasy Football Values: Week 8

C.D. Carter uses dollar per point to construct an optimal daily fantasy lineup.

Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III
Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III

Oct 20, 2013; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III (10) prepares to throw the ball against the Chicago Bears in the first quarter at FedEx Field. The Redskins won 45-41. Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Adapt or die.

Rather, adapt or lose hulking chunks of your daily fantasy football bankroll week after week until you’re left with nothing but a fine mixture of frustration and regret.

I, like many who write about this little game, swung and missed on a few recommended Week 7 plays – most notably, Nick Foles.

Foles was the 26th-highest scoring quarterback last week, failing to come even close to justifying his rock-bottom salary on Star Fantasy Leagues (or any other daily site). The Dallas secondary seemed ripe for the taking against a signal caller who had shredded Tampa Bay’s decent defense just a week earlier.

Beat C.D. Carter on Star Fantasy Leagues and double your Week 8 winnings!

My justification for locking Foles into your Week 7 lineup hinged on the average number of fantasy points Dallas had given up to signal callers this season. I should clarify: the number of raw fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

We’re going to focus much more of our daily fantasy efforts on fantasy production adjusted for strength of schedule from now on, using numbers provided by the stat magicians at numberFire, an excellent site for all your fantasy needs.

Schedule-adjusted fantasy points offers a truer sense of how a defense performs against rushing and passing attacks because it takes into account who, exactly, is doing the scoring.

Peyton Manning scorching a defense doesn’t hurt that defense’s adjusted points because, well, Manning is god-like. A monster stat line from Joe Flacco, on the other hand, would have a hugely negative impact on a defense’s adjusted points ranking.

Dallas, for what it’s worth, is the fourth best pass defense in numberFire’s adjusted points rankings. Foles’ Week 7 dud, in that light, isn’t terribly surprising.

Below is a breakdown of Week 8’s best value plays, using the dollars per point (DPP) metric. The lower the DPP, the better.

 

Player Salary Projected points DPP
Robert Griffin III $16, 901 23.6 $716
Chad Henne $9,000 15 $600
Thad Lewis $9,000 15.2 $592
Carson Palmer $11,574 18.8 $615

 

  • I’m loath to include high-end quarterbacks in my weekly value report, but I can’t resist Griffin III against a Broncos team that should carve up the Washington defense like Leatherface with a brand new chainsaw. Washington will have to throw and throw some more, and with RGIII’s new willingness to run (he has 161 yards in his past two games), I love Griffin as a rare value play with massive upside.
  • Henne is still there at Star Fantasy League’s lowest quarterback price of $9,000. He’s there for a reason, of course: he stinks, and despite consistently cracking the 300-yard mark, he doesn’t throw touchdowns. It’s tough, however, to banish any low-priced guy throwing the ball 40 times a game.
  • Palmer gets his turn to torment the Atlanta defense, which ranks dead last in numberFire’s adjusted fantasy points rankings. Arizona can’t run the ball either, leaving Bruce Arians’ father, Carson, to throw a bunch of passes against a Swiss cheese secondary that most recently made Mike Glennon look like a Pro Bowler.

 

Player Salary Projected points DPP
Eddie Lacy $10,251 17.8 $575
Frank Gore $12,573 17.9 $702
Andre Ellington $7,892 10.4 $758
Le’Veon Bell $8,436 15.8 $533
Joseph Randle $4,456 11.1 $401

 

  • The Vikings’ defense is bleeding fantasy points to almost every skill position, so it might be tough to pinpoint who among the Green Bay rushers and pass catchers will post a ridiculous line this week. numberFire has Minnesota ranked second to last in adjusted points allowed to opposing runners, making Lacy – available for an affordable $10,251 – a borderline must play.
  • Randle, as I mentioned last week, is just a guy. If he starts in place of the injured DeMarco Murray again this week at Detroit, he goes against a middle-of-the-road rush defense, according to the numberFire adjusted points rankings. Randle finished Week 7 with 93 total yards on 22 touches. He’s tough to turn down with a salary half even low-end starting backs.

 

Player Salary Projected points DPP
Michael Floyd $8,481 12.1 $700
Jarrett Boykin $4,175 11.4 $366
Harry Douglas $7,804 12.8 $609
Cecil Shorts $8,862 13.1 $676

 

  • I missed on Douglas last week. I didn’t even mention the only receiver left standing in Atlanta, and frankly, I’m sick about it. The best Star Fantasy League lineups had Douglas locked and loaded against Tampa, and cashed in on his 149-yard one-touchdown performance. Week 8 doesn’t appear to be as favorable for Douglas, as Arizona is ranked 16th in adjusted points allowed to enemy receivers. Still, he sports a mighty fine DPP.
  • Check out Boykin’s DPP. It’s rare that we’ll see any DPP – at any position – sit at less than $400, but there he is, at the low, low price of $366 per point. Boykin is a money saver, as he was last week when he racked up 103 yards and a score. The Vikings are fifth worst against the pass, according to numberFire’s adjusted ranks.

 

Player Salary Projected points DPP
Rob Gronkowski $9,409 14.8 $635
Jordan Reed $8,113 11.8 $687
Joseph Fauria $4,783 7.2 $664

 

  • Kudos to those who banked on Gronkowski’s arm staying intact last week and benefited from his eight grabs for 114 yards against Gang Green. Gronk takes on a Miami defense ranked 20th in adjusted points allowed to pass catchers. Perhaps most importantly: Tom Brady targeted Gronkowski 17 times last week, and with New England’s lack of reliable pass-catching options, I can’t think of a reason Gronk won’t continue to be a target hog.
  • Reed’s price rightfully jumped after he scored more fantasy points than any tight end in football last week. He could be one of many Washington players who benefit from the probable flurry of passes Griffin III will throw against Denver, the NFL’s second worst pass defense in numberFire’s adjusted points ranks.
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