Diamond Mining: World Series Statistical View on Cardinals and Red Sox

If anybody has been paying attention to our statistical view on the 2013 Major League Baseball postseason, seeing both the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox reach the 2013 World Series should be of no surprise to anyone. The Cardinals are the best organization in baseball while the Red Sox might have the best offense in the majors. Obviously, only one team will be crowned a championship in a rematch of the 2004 World Series.

OFFENSE

Other than the fact that the Cardinals are striking out less than the BoSox, all other offensive categories go to Boston. It’s really not fair to compare an American League lineup with a National League offense. To be fair, the Cardinals were arguably the best offense in the senior circuit. Nevertheless, Boston’s offensive production was able to dwarf a pretty good offense in the Detroit Tigers when we previewed the American League Championship Series.

In the batted ball categories, both clubs ranked in the top three in MLB in Line Drive Percentage (LD%). The Red Sox hitters have the advantage in their attacks through the air:

• Fly Ball Rate (FB%)
• Home Runs Per Fly Ball Percentage (HR/FB%)

However, since they hit more balls in the air, they are also susceptible to higher pop up rates. As we’ve mentioned throughout the year, the Red Sox have the speed to match the power so it’s no surprise that they are always a threat to get on base via the bunt and infield hit. Meanwhile, a slow team like the Cardinals having the advantage in Ground Ball Rate (GB%) is never a good thing, though the Cardinals are a decent base running club.

In terms of plate discipline, you have two of the most patient teams in all of baseball. Both teams ranked near the bottom in Swinging Strike Percentage (SwStr%), while the Red Sox proved to be the most selective team in baseball by posting the lowest Swing Rate in MLB. On the other hand, the Cardinals have a higher Swing Rate, but possess the highest Contact Rate in the NL.

And despite all the heroics by David Ortiz and Shane Victorino, the Cardinals posted the highest Clutch Rating in the NL at 3.03. Boston posted a mark of -2.18. Perception can be a tricky thing to control.

ADVANTAGE: BOSTON RED SOX

FIELDING

As it has been noted throughout the Cardinals’ postseason run, they have the weakest arms in the outfield not just in the National League, but in all of MLB. Against a speedy team like the Red Sox, the Cardinals are going to have to do a better job with the gloves than they did against the Los Angeles Dodgers to keep the Red Sox running game at bay. Boston’s outfield has the better arms, but they are still suspect. The Cardinals do not take many chances on the base paths so this aspect of the game might prove to be a stalemate.

With Yadier Molina behind the plate, the Cards do a better job at controlling the opposing run game and is a better, overall catcher than anyone Boston inserts behind the plate. However, Molina may not be good enough to stop a fast and effective base running team like the Red Sox. This will be a key matchup. If the Cards are able to keep base runners in check, it might cripple Boston’s well-balanced attack.

The Cardinals once again prove to be better at turning the double plays. They turned nine in six games against the Dodgers. But once again, their limited range puts their fielding at a disadvantage, but make up for it by preventing the number of errors they commit. The Red Sox, in terms of Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), have a 71 run advantage over the Cardinals.

ADVANTAGE: BOSTON RED SOX

STARTING PITCHING

This is a lot closer than anticipated. As mentioned before, just like it’s not really fair to compare an AL hitting lineup with an NL lineup, it’s not really fair to compare an NL starting rotation with its AL counterpart. Regardless, the Cardinals only have a slight edge in the rotation based on the table above.

Batted balls show both teams posting some of the lowest LD% in MLB. It should be very interesting to see how both rotations attack two of the best, line drive hitting ball clubs in the majors. The Red Sox possess one of the higher FB% in all of baseball, but force a lot of pop ups because of it. On the other hand, the Cards have the second highest GB% in MLB and are among the lowest in FB% and HR/FB%.

Although the Cardinals induce a lot of swings, the Sox have a lower Contact Rate and have the higher Swinging Strike Rate. The Cardinals have the better names in their rotation:

• Adam Wainwright
• Michael Wacha
• Lance Lynn

But based on both teams’ strengths, the slight edge goes to a team with the perceived, weaker rotation.

ADVANTAGE: BOSTON RED SOX

Once again, the results are surprising, but the Cardinals have the better Strikeout to Walk Ratio (K:BB) and have the clear advantage in the WHIP and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) stats.

Just like their brethren in the rotation, the BoSox bullpen have the higher FB%, but also force a lot more pop ups. However, the Cardinals’ bullpen have the lowest Line Drive Rate and the highest Ground Ball Rate in MLB. Because of the high GB%, they also had the lowest pop up rate in the majors as well, but they also have the edge in HR/FB%.

Both bullpens were among the highest in the majors in terms of Swinging Strike Percentage. While the Sox have a lower Contact Rate, the Cardinals had the highest Swinging Percentage and First-Pitch Strike Percentage in the majors.

Plus it’s really hard not to be amazed by young fireballers Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal.

ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

INTANGIBLES

• Despite having the edge in the rotation, having Wainwright pitch in two, maybe three games in this series will immensely help the Cardinals here. He might be the best, “big game” pitcher in the majors right now.
• Remember Allen Craig? He’ll finally be available for the Cardinals for this series. There will be a rust factor, but Craig can only help the Cardinals’ offense at this point of the season.
• Dustin Pedroia has yet to hit a home run this postseason. It’s his turn to hit a clutch home run.
• Cardinals will be looking to get revenge for 2004.
• If the Cards thought it was tough to play outfield at Dodgers Stadium, what will they make of “The Green Monster?”
• Will the magic of the Boston Beards play a factor in helping the Sox win the series?

A prediction has already been made, but these are probably, with much certainty, the two best teams in Major League Baseball. It should prove to be a World Series of epic proportions.

Stats courtesy of fangraphs.com and mlb.com

Felipe Melecio

Felipe Melecio was the managing editor for the blog Pathological Hate. He believes that math is your friend and numbers can be fun, especially when it comes to baseball. Keep tabs on all his knee-jerk reactions on Twitter: Follow @pathological_h8 !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');

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