We’ve reached the point of the fantasy hockey season where the panic button is being waved over by many an owner, ready to be pressed with one more week at the bottom of the rankings. There is hope, fantasy hockey people out there.
Sometimes the best move in a fantasy season is the one you don’t make. There are several guys off to a very slow or very hot start, this is what should be done about a few of them.
PDO
PDO is an analytical tool used to determine whether or not a player should regress or rebound from their current situation. PDO is simply:
On-Ice Shooting Percentage (shooting percentage of the team when a given player is on the ice at 5v5) + On-Ice Save Percentage (save percentage of the team when a given players is on the ice at 5v5).
If Player A has a 9 percent On-Ice SH% and a .932 SV%, then 9+93.2=102.2, or 1022. That mark of 1022 would indicate a player who, all things equal, should regress.
You will see different ways for PDO to be expressed, but the two most typical forms are out of 100 (102.2) or out of 1000 (1022). Any mark above 1000 should be due for a regression, any mark below 1000 should be due for a rebound. There are other mitigating factors like quality of competition and quality of teammate, but it’s a good rule of thumb to follow.
Generally, guys who play a full schedule (at least 70 games) won’t finish with greater than a 1060 PDO. Conversely, very few guys finish a full season with less than a 960 PDO. For that reason, I will use <960 and >1060 as the parameters. Here are a couple guys with a very high and very low PDO to start the year, and what you should do with them.
High PDO (Sell)
Joe Thornton (C-SJS, 1142 PDO)
In case people have forgotten, the San Jose Sharks started the 2013 shortened season 7-0 with a +15 goal differential. While that goal differential is bigger to start this year (6-0 and +21), this is largely the same team that was two points away from missing playoffs after starting 7-0 in a 48-game season.
Thornton has started the season with one goal, eight assists and a +9 rating through eight games. That plus/minus rating extrapolates out to a +92 rating for the year, which would be the 5th best mark in NHL history.
I would be selling high on Thornton. Someone in your league struggling for assists? You could probably flip Thornton for an elite goal scorer like Patrick Kane or top defenseman like Dustin Byfuglien.
Nathan Mackinnon (C-COL, 1141 PDO)
This is different for keeper/dynasty leagues. In those formats, this is a firm hold unless you get a ridiculous offer.
Undoubtedly, the Avalanche are one of the best stories to start the season; along with San Jose, Colorado remains the only unbeaten team in the NHL. This is not even close to a sustainable start however.
The Avalanche goalies have a 97.52 save percentage at even strength so far this season, tops in the NHL. For reference, the leaders in each of the last three years:
- 2012-2013: New York Rangers (93.51 percent)
- 2011-2012: St. Louis Blues (93.90 percent)
- 2010-2011: Boston Bruins (94.10 percent)
In other words, the save percentage of the Avalanche is going to fall at least three and a half percent over the rest of the year. That means the great plus/minus ratings of guys like Matt Duchene, P.A. Parenteau and Mackinnon are going to suffer.
The Avalanche On-Ice shooting percentage with Mackinnon on the ice is 20.0 percent, good for fifth among all players in the NHL who have played five games so far this year. Over the last two full 82 game seasons, six players have been above 12 percent for the year and no one finished above 15 percent.
All this means is that Mackinnon will not keep up his point-per-game pace, and his plus/minus will slow down considerably if not go in the other direction altogether. Maybe you can sell Mackinnon to an owner as the “Next One”, knowing there’s a good chance he doesn’t crack 60 points.
Low PDO (Buy)
Zach Parise (LW-MIN, 947 PDO)
There are two things that you really need to know about how Zach Parise has started this season:
- Parise is shooting a ton this year; his 5.71 shots on goal per game game is by far the highest mark of his career (4.44 in 2008-2009 a previous career high). It’s not other-worldly either as his 18.08 shot attempts/60 minutes isn’t far off from the 19.75 he posted in 2008-2009. That season, he scored 45 goals.
- Minnesota’s possession game is unmatched so far in the NHL this year. Their 60.2 CorsiFor% is tops in the NHL at open 5v5 play, meaning they are taking over 60 percent of the total shot attempts that occur in one of their games. This is an elite number, as the season leaders for the last three years were: LA (2013) – 56.3 CF%, Detroit (2012) – 54.9 CF%, San Jose (2011) – 53.5%. From those three teams, there were 13 forwards who finished with a plus/minus rating of (+10) or better, and they tended to be the skilled forwards (Williams, Kopitar, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Couture).
This all means that there is a very good chance that even if Minnesota’s CF% regresses to 53 or 54% for the rest of the season – and it probably will – then Parise will still end up with a good plus/minus rating.
The On-Ice shooting percentage of Parise is 2.74 percent, after putting up 7.4 percent in the lockout-shortened season and 8.82 percent the year before. Once this starts to normalize, his plus/minus will go up. And at the current rate of shooting, he could cruise past 35 goals this year. Because of how he’s performed on the power play (four of his five points are with the man advantage), you may have to pay a bit of a higher price. At the end of the season, though, it will be worth it.
Slava Voynov (D-LAK, 931 PDO)
There was quite a bit of fanfare heading into this season surrounding the prospects of Voynov. Last year, he finished with more points (25) than superstar teammate Drew Doughty (22), and tied for the team lead in playoff points with Jeff Carter at 13. After the Kings’ season finished in the Conference Finals last year, Voynov was signed to a 6-year, $25 million contract.
What made Voynov so good last year, and how does that compare to this year? (unless specifically designated, these are all at 5v5)
|
2012-2013 |
2013-2014 |
|
| CorsiRelQoC |
0.429 |
1.257 |
| CorsiRelQoT |
-1.825 |
1.950 |
| TOI/Game |
22:18 |
21:15 |
| PP TOI/Game |
2:05 |
2:36 |
| CorsiFor% |
54.1% |
58% |
| Shot Att/60 minutes |
10.00 |
15.31 |
| Shots/Game |
1.65 |
2.0 |
Voynov is getting better teammates to play with – he’s playing about 37 percent of his even-strength time with the Brown/Kopitar/Williams line compared to just 30 percent last year – and he’s getting more power play time. Not only that, but he’s taking about 50 percent more shot attempts, with about 20 percent more of them landing on target.
In short, there are several indicators that Voynov’s (-2) rating and only two points in seven games are just a function of early bad luck. On a 20 minute of ice time basis, Voynov is actually on the ice for fewer goals (0.68) than he was last year (0.72) and he finished with a (+5) rating last year. This, combined with the ridiculous PDO, makes him a great buy-low target. Considering he’s down to 94 percent owned on ESPN, it might not take a lot to get him. This is still a Top-25 defenseman, regardless of what the first two weeks of the season say.
