In the second of three parts that I will do to keep people up-to-date on fantasy hockey ADP fluctuations, I’m going to take a look at how the ADP’s of certain players have risen/fallen over the past week or so and what that means for your fantasy team. The ADP report had its first incarnation here and it was used to cover some players I thought might be over-and-under drafted.
Since then, ESPN has opened up its live draft rooms so I’ve been able to dig a little bit deeper. Unfortunately, mock draft lobbies still aren’t available so I’ve gone the route of drafting free teams to see how things are shaking out. Where you draft (Yahoo! or ESPN) could have a huge impact on where players are drafted in your league, assuming everyone hasn’t done all their research:
Yahoo |
ESPN |
| – Goalies are being drafted much earlier. Guys like Sergei Bobrovsky, Carey Price and Jimmy Howard rarely make it past pick 40. | – Goalies are being drafted much later. I got Jimmy Howard in round 5 (44) and Braden Holtby in round 10 (97). Both going much earlier in Yahoo. |
| – Defensemen are falling off the face of the Earth: Erik Karlsson is dropping to the 3rd round regularly, Shea Weber and Zdeno Chara are never taken before the 5th round, Dustin Byfuglien can be grabbed in the 6th round. | – Defensemen are going much earlier. You will never see Karlsson taken later than the 2nd round; Weber and Chara almost never make it out of the Top-40. In fact, I saw Chara go in the 2nd round yesterday. |
| – Multi-category players are going very late. Across-the-board performers like David Backes and Brad Marchand are going, very consistently, after pick 100. | – The multi-category discount does not exist on ESPN. Whereas I see Backes/Marchand go after the 100th pick on Yahoo often, neither makes it past pick 75 almost ever. |
Those last two points are pretty important for you to keep in mind when you’re doing your draft. Keep in mind:
– Always check your league settings; Points leagues are not Points-Only leagues and something like Average Time On Ice massively alters the value of players.
– If you draft on Yahoo!, it appears the ADP is more in line with Points-Only leagues, which count only goals and assists for skaters. If you draft on ESPN, their ADP (and rankings) are better set up for multi-category leagues, like points leagues or rotisserie leagues.
There’s no quicker way to tank your fantasy season than by drafting with the wrong settings in mind and having your draft influenced by an irrelevant ADP.
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Player Movement
I want to review the players I went over last ADP report just to see if there’s been much change:
– Taylor Hall (LW-EDM): He was going around the 15th player and not much has changed. In four mocks I did over the weekend, he went 14th, 15th, 17th, 20th. Expect to spend a second round pick if you want this guy on your team (you should) although he might slide later in ESPN drafts – the mock he went 17th, I took him and it may have been a reach.
– Anze Kopitar (C-LAK): In the last report, Kopitar was going late in the third round on Yahoo! and since then, he has risen on boards. In two Y! mocks, I saw him go 34th and 28th but he never made it past the 24th pick on ESPN. If you know your league, you should know about where you’ll need to take him.
– James Neal (LW/RW-PIT): I’m quite confounded. One of the top goal scorers in the NHL, who plays alongside Evgeni Malkin, is sometimes falling into the third round (pick 25) or later. This is a second round pick in any league.
– Nazem Kadri (C-TOR): When I wrote my last ADP Report, Kadri still hadn’t signed with the Leafs but I said he ADP would rise about 50 spots when he did. His ADP has risen five spots officially but he’s still consistently going in the 95-100 range as he was a week ago. I’m very surprised his ADP hasn’t jumped more yet, we’ll see how this plays out.
– Erik Karlsson (D-OTT): This is a player where the site you draft on could influence where he goes; on ESPN, I’ve seen him go in the first round while on Yahoo! he’s last until the third round sometimes. This is a top-20 pick in any format.
– Nail Yakupov (RW-EDM): To my surprise, Yakupov’s ADP has actually dropped (only by half a pick, but still). I stand by my “not one of your first four picks” stance.
– David Backes (C/RW-STL): This is one of the biggest mover’s in ADP so far, as Backes has risen by about a half round in a week. On ESPN, I saw him drafted between the 75th and 80th overall pick, which is more in line with his value. I’d still be comfortable using a sixth round pick on him (12-teamer).
– Marian Gaborik (RW-CBJ): Gaborik’s ADP on Yahoo! has been pretty steady, but it’s interesting to note he’s dropping 20 or more picks in ESPN drafts. This guy should be off the board by pick 60 at the absolute latest.
That’s how those specific guys have moved (or not) in the last week or so.
Oddities among some other players’ ADP
Being able to do drafts on ESPN has given me a better idea on how some players are valued by the public and these are a few quirks I’m seeing:
· Keith Yandle (D-PHX) is being massively under-drafted. I’ve seen him fall past WSH D Mike Green, who is injury prone at the best of times, and Andrei Markov who has the same issues plus time-sharing with P.K. Subban to deal with. Keep this in mind: Yandle has the third-most points among defensemen over the last four years, hasn’t missed a single game over that stretch and plays easy minutes compared to teammate Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
· Marc-André Fleury (G-PIT) went as early as 47th in my four mock drafts and didn’t fall past the 60th pick in any of them. I get you want to draft a goalie, but these are better options that you can draft later: Roberto Luongo, Cam Ward, Nik Backstrom, Kari Lehtonen. Put it this way: Since 2008-2009, Fleury has the identical save percetange that bought-out and expunged goalie Ilya Bryzgalov does at .913.
· Kari Lehtonen (G-DAL) is presenting a great value opportunity for those that don’t lock down their goalies early. The only thing keeping Lehtonen from being a top-10 goalie is his health; he cracked 60 starts just twice in seven years and was hurt for a couple of weeks last year. All the same, Lehtonen has the same save percentage as Carey Price over the last three seasons yet is going at least two rounds later than Price in every draft I’ve done.
· Dion Phaneuf (D-TOR) is again being under-valued as a defenseman. In the last three years, only three defensemen have achieved 25 goals, 100 points, 200 PIMs and 400 shots on goal: P.K. Subban, Zdeno Chara and Dion Phaneuf. Yet, I’m seeing defensemen like Mark Streit and Justin Schultz get drafted ahead of him? He’s a Top-10 defenseman in almost any format.
· Logan Couture (C/LW-SJS) is being drafted much differently between Yahoo! and ESPN. On the Y!, he’s lasting into the seventh round (pick 72 or later) at times while he’s going in the top 50 on ESPN. The latter is correct so if he’s still on the board in the fifth round, grab him.
So those are some of the bigger names that I’m seeing quirks with. Are there other guys you want to know about? Feel free to tweet me @SlimCliffy any time.
