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Fantasy Baseball Rest-of-Season Projections: Second-Half Streakers

Nationals OF Jayson Werth
Nationals OF Jayson Werth

Aug 16, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Nationals right fielder Jayson Werth (28) hits an RBI single in the eighth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Last week we looked at some players struggling since the All-Star break and what we can expect from them in the final six weeks of the season. Today, we turn to players seeing an upswing in production since the “second half” began and how much of that production is actually sustainable and who is just having a hot August.

Jayson Werth

BA

OPS

HR

XBH

RBI

R

SB

1st Half (64 G)

.297

.828

10

19

33

38

3

2nd Half (32 G)

.393

1.15

8

12

23

25

4

For a while, it looked like Jayson Werth might be one of the biggest busts ever signed off the free agent market. While he still may be, he’s finally showing some relevance and has been on a torrid stretch since the middle of June, shortly after coming back from a hamstring injury that kept him out a month. Over his last 60 games, he owns an impressive .382/.471/.623 line with 13 HR, 42 RBI, 43 R, and five steals. He hasn’t shown any sign of slowing down either, batting .404 with three homers, 13 RBI, and 14 R over his last 14 games.

About 60 games in, this is no longer a hot streak. This is a player who has reinvented himself. Whether he keeps this up next season is one thing but I definitely expect him to keep the average high and put up another five or so home runs and as many as 20 RBI before the season’s end.

Fearless Prediction: .309 BA, 23 HR, 72 RBI, 76 R, 9 SB

Martin Prado

BA

OPS

HR

XBH

RBI

R

SB

1st Half (91 G)

.253

.668

8

24

34

37

1

2nd Half (31 G)

.362

.970

4

15

26

19

2

I was really down on Prado in the early stages of the season but it looks like it just took him a couple of months to adjust to his new team. Since June 25, Prado owns a .345/.401/.528 line with seven home runs, 36 RBI, 25 R, and 21 XBH. He’s never been an overwhelming fantasy force but those numbers are closer to what we were used to seeing from Prado in Atlanta.

XN Sports’ AccuScore Projections have him at around .284 BA, 13 RBI, 14 R, and two to three home runs the rest of the way. I think all of those stats will be a tad higher but not by much.

Fearless Prediction: .291 BA, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 70 R

Andre Ethier

BA

OPS

HR

XBH

RBI

R

SB

1st Half (91 G)

.268

.728

5

24

28

28

3

2nd Half (31 G)

.287

.872

4

13

17

19

1

Ethier hasn’t found his power stroke and hasn’t hit more than three home runs in a month (and that was back in April) but he’s been more productive since the middle of June. Since June 15, Ethier owns a very solid .312/.394/.459 line with four home runs, 28 RBI, 31 R, and 21 XBH over 59 games. Those stats over a full season would add up to around 77 RBI, 85 R, and 58 XBH. That’s less pop but the rest of the production is close to what we are used from him (averaging 83 RBI, 80 R, and 59 XBH per season since 2008). He may not be hitting home runs but doubles drive in runs too.

XN Sports’ AccuScore Projections have him at batting .290 with three home runs, 13 RBI, and 14 R the rest of the way which all sound close though I think the run production will be a bit higher.

Fearless Prediction: .281 BA, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 64 R

Nate Schierholtz

BA

OPS

HR

XBH

RBI

R

SB

1st Half (77 G)

.269

.825

11

33

34

35

5

2nd Half (31 G)

.287

.868

7

14

24

14

1

The numbers are a bit confused. He has batted at least .282 every single month except July (.214). In August, he’s batting .299. Over his last 16 games, he’s batting .317 with four homers, 15 RBI, and nine runs. All this in spite of his rough 18 K/1 BB over that stretch.

Overall, Schierholtz has actually been a very pleasant and consistent surprise. He has hit at least three home runs and driven in nine RBI every month while posting a good batting average. He has hit as many as five home runs in a month and has four through August. He’s not a superstar level player but 18 HR, 58 RBI, 49 R, 57 XBH is pretty damn good for a guy who went almost universally undrafted in the fantasy world.

I think another 30-some odd games at his current pace is sustainable, with about four more home runs and 15 or so RBI the rest of the way.

Fearless Prediction: .279 BA, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 50 R, 7 SB

Tyson Ross

IP

ERA

WHIP

K/BB

HR

1st Half

45

3.60

1.44

34/21

4

2nd Half

40.1

2.01

0.87

42/12

2

Ross has been absolutely stellar as a starter after spending most of the first half pitching out of the bullpen. In six games since rejoining the rotation, Ross owns a 2.01 ERA, .167 BA, and 42 K/12 BB. He was a bit off his game in his outing, surrendering four earned runs, six hits, and two walks while striking out six over 6.1 IP but it was the first time he’d given up more than two runs in a start. He’s been stingy about allowing hits and has struck out at least six and as many as nine in each of his last six starts.

At the same time, when a player gets this hot there’s almost always a leveling out period. XN Sports’ AccuScore Projections have him going 2-3 with a 3.92 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 31 K the rest of the way which is a moderate leveling out but nothing drastic.

Fearless Prediction: 6-7, 3.29 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 107 K

Julio Teheran

IP

ERA

WHIP

K/BB

HR

1st Half

113

3.35

1.23

94/23

15

2nd Half

36

1.75

1.03

38/11

2

Teheran had a great first half and has been completely dominant in the second. Really, he’s been rather dominant since April. After giving up 13 runs in his first three starts, Teheran is 10-6 with a 2.44 ERA, .243 BAA, and 120 K/27 BB over 21 starts since. Since those three starts, he’s only given up more than three runs in three over 21 starts.

Leveling out for him doesn’t mean the same as it does for Ross, he’s quickly established himself as a young future ace to be reckoned with. In fact, XN Sports’ AccuScore Projections have him going 3-2 with a 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 32 K/8 BB the rest of the way which sounds about right and would continue to lower his current 2.98 ERA.

Fearless Prediction: 13-8, 2.90 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 167 K

Dan Haren

IP

ERA

WHIP

K/BB

HR

1st Half

93

5.61

1.42

81/17

19

2nd Half

39

2.31

0.80

36/6

4

Haren was arguably the worst pitcher in the league through his first 15 starts, going 4-9 with a 6.15 ERA, .306 BAA, and 19 HR allowed. After those miserable 15 starts, he was shut down for a couple of weeks with a minor shoulder injury and has come back a completely different pitcher. In eight starts and one extra-inning relief appearances since, Haren is 4-2 with a 2.16 ERA, .193 BAA, four home runs allowed, and 50 K/10 BB. He has given up more than two runs just once over that stretch and continues to look stellar every time out.

There’s no reason to expect this second-half surge to stop, though his current 2.16 ERA pace isn’t likely to hold up. I’d expect about three more wins, 50 strikeouts, and a 3.00-ish ERA moving forward.

Fearless Prediction: 11-13, 4.12 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 173 K

Zack Greinke

IP

ERA

WHIP

K/BB

HR

1st Half

85

3.49

1.26

68/27

7

2nd Half

48

1.88

1.06

35/10

4

After looking like his usual 3.50 ERA self in the first half, Greinke has turned it up in a big way and has lowered his season ERA to 2.91. We have seen him put up an ERA as low as 2.16 before but that was all the way back in 2009 and he hasn’t posted an ERA lower than 3.47 in any other season. On the other hand, he’s spent most of his career in the American League where ERA’s are naturally higher and his current NL West opponents are a pretty weak bunch. Really, most of the National League is. Nine of 15 teams are currently under .500 and even above-.500 teams like the Pirates and Diamondbacks have unimpressive lineups.

After their current series against the Red Sox, the Dodgers only have to see the Cubs, Padres, Rockies, Reds, Diamondbacks, Giants, Diamondbacks again, Padres again, and Rockies again. The Rockies and Reds have solid lineups but both teams rank in the middle in runs scored. Everyone else Greinke might see is mediocre at best. In other words, there’s a good chance he may continue lowering his ERA to levels we haven’t seen in four years from him.

Fearless Prediction: 15-4, 2.78 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 152 K

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