In our last installment of our MLB Biggest Losers’ series, we’ll take a look at a trio of nine-loss pitchers. There were seven starting pitchers with nine losses on their record that were considered as “qualified” in terms of obtaining a certain amount of innings pitched. I originally wanted to evaluate nine pitchers for this project, so of the seven starting pitchers, I picked the ones with the worst WAR and didn’t look back.
Part I evaluated the following starting pitchers:
Part II dealt with these starting pitchers:
And now to close out this series …
|
BIGGEST LOSERS |
|||||||||
|
The Basics |
|||||||||
|
Player |
W |
L |
INN |
K/BB |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
WHIP |
HR/9 |
|
5 |
10 |
108.1 |
1.2 |
5.6 |
4.7 |
5.07 |
1.63 |
1.25 |
|
|
6 |
9 |
113.2 |
2.7 |
6.8 |
2.5 |
3.64 |
1.37 |
0.95 |
|
|
7 |
9 |
113.1 |
1.6 |
5.6 |
3.6 |
4.61 |
1.49 |
0.87 |
|
RECIPE FOR DISASTER
Lucas Harrell’s pitching woes (154.0 fantasy points, 6% owned in fantasy leagues) are simply a result of awful stikeout figures and a out-of-control BB/9. Surprisingly, his HR/9 is not as high as I had thought. ERA and WHIP makes Harrell a useless fantasy baseball pitcher.
Kris Medlen (228.5, 93%) came into this season with lots of promise, but questions loomed about his small sample size as a starting pitcher. He’s been able to keep the walks and, based on his HR/9, home runs in check. The K/9 is disappointing for a pitcher who came into this season with so much hype and the WHIP is really unappealing in both “real” and fantasy baseball.
Like Medlen, Wily Peralta (204.5, 21%) came into this season with lots of promise, ranking as the number one prospect in the Milwaukee Brewers’ farm system. So far, like Harrell, he’s posted terrible K/9, BB/9, ERA, and WHIP. Again, surprisingly, Peralta has done a good job in keeping the ball in the park, per HR/9. Nevertheless, we’ve seen pitchers with good HR/9 get exposed with bad HR/FB.
|
Advanced Stats |
|||||||
|
Player |
K% |
BB% |
LOB% |
ERA- |
FIP |
SIERA |
RS/GS |
|
Lucas Harrell |
13.7% |
11.6% |
70.4% |
125 |
5.37 |
4.97 |
3.84 |
|
Kris Medlen |
17.2% |
6.4% |
73.9% |
98 |
3.95 |
4.14 |
3.42 |
|
Wily Peralta |
13.9% |
9.0% |
64.3% |
120 |
4.33 |
4.54 |
3.70 |
As we saw in the previous table, all three pitchers have been struggling in racking up the strikeouts. At least Medlen can brag about his low Walk%, but Harrell and Peralta can’t seem to control their walks.
Medlen’s low ERA can be explained by his above league average LOB%. Conversely, Harrell and Peralta’s high ERA might lie in their inability in preventing base runners from scoring.
Medlen’s FIP is respectable, but his SIERA suggests that Medlen might not improve much in the second half. At the very least, Medlen can cite his poor win-loss record on poor run support.
As far as Harrell and Peralta’s advanced stats go, their ERA- , FIP, and SIERA just reinforce how bad they have been all season long, with high walk rates as the main culprit.
|
Batted Balls |
|||||||
|
Player |
BABIP |
GB/FB |
LD% |
GB% |
FB% |
IF/FB |
HR/FB |
|
Lucas Harrell |
0.304 |
1.98 |
20.7% |
52.7% |
26.6% |
10.6% |
16.0% |
|
Kris Medlen |
0.309 |
1.28 |
23.1% |
43.2% |
33.7% |
3.3% |
9.9% |
|
Wily Peralta |
0.301 |
2.06 |
22.0% |
52.5% |
25.5% |
8.4% |
11.6% |
UNLUCKY OR BAD—OR BOTH?
All three pitchers have a BABIP that is pretty close to the “normal” mark of .300 so some “bad luck” is involved in their year so far, but they’re not high enough for me to proclaim these pitchers as unlucky. All three pitchers also have a line-drive% above 20%, which explains the BABIP over .300 and other problems these pitchers might have with their advanced stats (see FIP, SIERA, etc).
Harrell and Peralta can be considered ground ball pitchers, but they don’t induce enough ground balls to use that to their full advantage, therefore adding more problems and helping that BABIP stay above .300.
We knew that Harrell has been struggling with the long ball, but like I mentioned, despite Peralta sporting an impressive HR/9, his HR/FB is above league average as many of his fly balls find a way into the stands.
|
Plate Discipline % |
||||||||
|
Player |
O-Swing |
Z-Swing |
Swing |
O-Contact |
Z-Contact |
Contact |
Zone |
S-Strike |
|
Lucas Harrell |
28.5% |
56.6% |
39.3% |
77.5% |
93.5% |
86.4% |
38.4% |
5.2% |
|
Kris Medlen |
32.0% |
67.7% |
48.0% |
66.4% |
87.1% |
79.5% |
44.8% |
9.5% |
|
Wily Peralta |
29.8% |
68.8% |
46.4% |
70.6% |
89.4% |
82.4% |
42.5% |
8.0% |
ONE OF THEM DOES NOT BELONG HERE
Medlen is the only pitcher in this group who can bait hitters into swinging outside the strike zone. Medlen is also the only pitcher in this group who does a good job in limiting contact when hitters swing at his pitches outside the zone. As a matter of fact, compared to Peralta and Harrell, hitters struggle to make contact with Medlen’s pitches. To put that into further perspective, of the nine pitchers looked at for this series, Peralta and Harrell have the worst Contact%.
Medlen is also the only pitcher that can fool hitters into swinging for strikes.
CONCLUSION
Kris Medlen may not get the high strikeouts many thought he would be able to get this season, but as long as he keeps his walks and home runs in check, he will remain a solid starter. As we saw in his plate discipline percentages, he still gives plenty of hitters a difficult time in making contact with his pitches. The concern is his SIERA being slightly above league average.
Lucas Harrell is just a terrible pitcher and there is not one thing about him that should make anyone optimistic about a second half resurgence. Well, there is the idea that if he can induce more ground balls, he can lower his BABIP and lower his line-drive rate, HR/FB, and earn more outs in this manner. However, if you can’t strike out hitters or keep your walks in checks, more ground balls are not going to help turn your season around.
Wily Peralta owners and fans still hold out that his pedigree might finally start appearing in the second half. However, a high walk rate, line-drive rate, HR/FB rate, and the inability to rack up strikeouts really point against Peralta turning his season around. Just like Harrell, perhaps if he induces even more ground balls, he can turn his luck around and control some of the balls put in play, but if he’s going to continue to have terrible control, then he will continue to go on this path of mediocrity for the rest of the campaign.
Stats are through July 15 and courtesy of fangraphs.com
