We continue our look at Major League Baseball’s “biggest losers.” Part I was an overview of the first half of Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, and Edwin Jackson as we tried to figure out the silver linings to their seasons despite having double-digit losses. We now take a look at three more pitchers: R.A. Dickey, Trevor Cahill, and Roberto Hernandez.
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BIGGEST LOSERS |
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The Basics |
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Player |
W |
L |
INN |
K/BB |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
ERA |
WHIP |
HR/9 |
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R.A. Dickey |
8 |
10 |
128.2 |
1.9 |
6.4 |
3.3 |
4.69 |
1.30 |
1.40 |
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Trevor Cahill |
3 |
10 |
96.2 |
1.8 |
6.4 |
3.6 |
4.66 |
1.41 |
0.93 |
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Roberto Hernandez |
5 |
10 |
108.1 |
3.4 |
7.0 |
2.1 |
4.90 |
1.31 |
1.50 |
ADD AT YOUR OWN PERIL
Of the nine pitchers who are getting a full evaluation of their 2013 season, Dickey (owned in 94% of leagues, 254.50 fantasy points) has the most wins and has completed the second most innings pitched. Last year’s National League Cy Young Award winner switched leagues and was rewarded handsomely by the Toronto Blue Jays. But I’ve never been a fan of Dickey’s and went out of my way to avoid drafting or acquiring him in this offseason. Sure enough, my pessimistic outlook on Dickey was justified as his raw numbers have been subpar. His WHIP is minimally operative, but the rest of it is just awful, especially his BB/9 and HR/9. That knuckler seems to not get enough movement up north.
Trevor Cahill (41%, 144) is going through the same struggles as Dickey as he is guilty of having a low K/9 and a high BB/9. His high ERA and WHIP make him pretty useless in most—if not all—fantasy formats. His one saving grace is his low HR/9 as he’s been a consistent ground ball pitcher for most of his career.
Roberto Hernandez (12%, 193.50) sports the best K/BB of these three pitchers which is incredible when you think about how much he struggled with accumulating strike outs and controlling his walks when he went by the name of Fausto Carmona. Unfortunately, his ERA, WHIP, and HR/9 make him pretty useless in fantasy formats.
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Advanced Stats |
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Player |
K% |
BB% |
LOB% |
ERA- |
FIP |
SIERA |
RS/GS |
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R.A. Dickey |
16.8% |
8.6% |
69.9% |
113 |
4.91 |
4.52 |
3.90 |
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Trevor Cahill |
16.4% |
9.3% |
70.3% |
118 |
4.37 |
4.15 |
3.18 |
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Roberto Hernandez |
18.2% |
5.4% |
69.7% |
125 |
4.58 |
3.63 |
4.00 |
NOT THE MOST DOMINANT OF PITCHERS
As we observed in the last section, these starters have really high ERAs. This might be explained partially by low left on base percentages. The idea of LOB% is to have that number closer to or above 72% and none of these three pitchers have met that metric this season.
ERA- further proves that all three pitchers have been below average in terms of ERA, relative to the rest of the league. Also, all three pitchers have below average K%, but again, it’s surprising to see Hernandez maintain control of his BB%.
The run support for both Dickey and Hernandez place them in the top 60 among starting pitchers. Meanwhile, Cahill has gotten very little run support which might explain some of those 10 losses, but having high FIP and SIERA really doesn’t help his own cause. As one will also notice, Dickey and Hernandez do not fare any better in FIP, but Hernandez, because he has shown some ability to get strikeouts and control his walks, is tied with Cole Hamels among the nine pitchers being evaluated when it comes to SIERA. Hernandez also has the second most run support per game start so perhaps he’s due for a turnaround in the second half and maybe more wins.
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Batted Balls |
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Player |
BABIP |
GB/FB |
LD% |
GB% |
FB% |
IF/FB |
HR/FB |
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R.A. Dickey |
0.262 |
1.08 |
19.8% |
41.6% |
38.6% |
13.6% |
13.0% |
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Trevor Cahill |
0.293 |
2.51 |
19.2% |
57.7% |
23.0% |
4.5% |
14.9% |
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Roberto Hernandez |
0.304 |
2.01 |
24.7% |
50.3% |
25.0% |
10.6% |
21.2% |
TROUBLE WITH THE HOMER
Another alarm goes off as we see Dickey’s low BABIP. I’m not very optimistic that Dickey can turn around his season to Cy Young levels when you see his skill numbers not correlate to the good luck he’s been carrying. To his credit, he’s done a good job of controlling his line-drive rate with his knuckleball and forcing pop-ups. However, as mentioned before, Dickey has struggled in keeping control of the long ball.
Dickey is not the only one that has issues with home runs as Cahill, despite the great HR/9, he has really struggled with keeping fly balls inside the park. Ironic when you see the high volume of ground balls he induces, the slightly better than league average BABIP, and the low line-drive rate he sports. In terms of batted balls, Cahill should be doing a better job of getting through innings, but goes to show you how a pitcher’s performance can be ruined by failing to keep the ball in the park.
Hernandez has the worst HR/FB of the nine pitchers being evaluated, most likely explained by a high line-drive rate. He’s inducing enough ground balls, but that number could be a lot higher. He also does a good job in forcing pop-ups. Perhaps if the line-drive rate drops, so will his BABIP, and maybe he can prevent the long ball as the season progresses as his SIERA suggests improvement.
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Plate Discipline % |
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Player |
O-Swing |
Z-Swing |
Swing |
O-Contact |
Z-Contact |
Contact |
Zone |
S-Strike |
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R.A. Dickey |
30.1% |
64.0% |
46.1% |
73.7% |
83.0% |
79.8% |
47.4% |
9.3% |
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Trevor Cahill |
26.6% |
61.7% |
42.6% |
65.8% |
89.3% |
81.3% |
45.4% |
7.6% |
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Roberto Hernandez |
32.5% |
63.5% |
46.4% |
71.8% |
88.4% |
82.0% |
44.7% |
8.0% |
WHITE KNUCKLE GRIP
Hernandez does a decent job inducing swings when pitching out of the zone. He also has the best Swing% of these three pitchers. However, despite having an O-swing% above 30%, Dickey and Hernandez see hitters make plenty of contact when they pitch outside the zone.
Hitters seem to be patient with all three pitchers as they don’t swing at many pitches in the strike zone. At least Dickey can boast that hitters struggle to make contact with his knuckleball and it might be the main reason why his WHIP is at an adequate mark (1.30). The knuckler seems to also help Dickey have a high Swinging Strike percentage (S-Strike%). And judging by his Zone%, Dickey seems to be at his most effective when he is able to pitch within the strike zone.
CONCLUSION
R.A. Dickey might get the benefit of the doubt as he seems to be getting a grip of his knuckleball as the season moves along. However, based on his FIP and SIERA, along with poor strikeout, walk, and home run rates, it’s going to take pin-point control and command of his knuckler to completely turn his season around.
Trevor Cahill might just be this bad. He does not get a lot of run support, but as a low strikeout pitcher, he already is at a disadvantage in trying to get outs. He doesn’t help himself by allowing a high number of walks and his HR/FB is extremely discouraging as he has shown the full capability to induce plenty of ground balls and has kept his line-drive rate in check. Based on his other peripherals, the only thing to look out for is if he is able to cut back on the dingers, but even then Cahill might not be anything better than just a mediocre pitcher.
Roberto Hernandez might have the most upside of the pitchers listed in this installment, especially when you look at his walk rate and SIERA, but just like Dickey and Cahill he’s been struggling with home runs for the majority of the season and that might be the only thing that prevents fantasy owners from taking a flyer on this guy. We’ll have to continue to gauge his line-drive rate and BABIP and see if they will decrease in the second half. Perhaps even an increase in ground balls will help his own cause as well.
Stats are through July 15 and courtesy of fangraphs.com
