Not since the 2010 NHL Entry Draft, when the top choice was in the air pretty much all season between F Taylor Hall and F Tyler Seguin, has there been so much uncertainty at the top of the draft.
This year, you can make a case for any of Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin and Seth Jones getting selected first overall at the 2013 NHL Entry Draft this Sunday afternoon; MacKinnon is a forward who can be seen as a once-in-a-lifetime talent, Jones has the skills necessary to become a franchise defenseman while Drouin just might be the most dynamic scorer in this year’s draft.
I want to take the time to introduce you to the top five players in this year’s draft. It will give you an idea of the kind of talent coming into the NHL possibly next year and maybe give a bit insight into why drafting in the top three picks this year is a godsend, as all three picks are likely to be NHL superstars.
I will provide a few caveats to all this, however:
- I am not a scout. I’ve only seen MacKinnon and Drouin in real-life twice and the rest I’ve watched a handful of times between the Ontario Hockey League (Major Junior) on TV, the World Junior Championships or the Memorial Cup. However, I do have observations from the times I’ve watched them and there are a ton of great resources to read from to get a better idea of who a player is (I’ll get to those later).
- I’m avoiding team-needs and going by best player available. I think, at least early on, this is the best approach for a franchise to take in a draft and I’ll do the same.
Without further ado.
#1. C – Nathan MacKinnon (Halifax Mooseheads – QMJHL)
There are very few teenagers that make people drive three, four, five hours or more just to watch him play in any of the North American sport. Nathan MacKinnon is one of them.
There are obvious comparisons to Sidney Crosby for MacKinnon; both are from Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia, a small suburb outside of Halifax that’s home to about 25 000 people, both led their respective Quebec Major Junior hockey teams to the Memorial Cup (MacKinnon won his, Crosby did not), both attended Shattuck St. Mary’s, a boarding school famed for its hockey development program and both were/are considered franchise players in the respective drafts.
But don’t let the easy comparisons fool you, they aren’t the same player.
Crosby was undoubtedly the best player to come along in a generation, it’s not even certain MacKinnon will be the best player in this draft. While Crosby excelled in junior hockey not only because of his skill but because he can think the game better than probably anyone alive, in my view, MacKinnon has relied more on raw skill.
But boy, is there a lot of raw skill. MacKinnon is very strong on the puck in the offensive zone and is very elusive when using this strength in conjunction with his great hands. However, he should not be viewed as a play-maker, MacKinnon is a goal scorer. His goals/assist ratio in the QMJHL is 0.70, compared to Crosby’s 0.65 and also had more goals than assists over two years at St. Mary’s, something Crosby hasn’t done since at least 12 years old.
Look for MacKinnon to go first overall to the Colorado Avalanche.
2. LW – Jonathan Drouin (Halifax Moosehead – QMJHL)
Jonathan Drouin is a guy who went from another young prospect to potentially pushing for a #1 overall pick in the matter of one junior season.
Drouin’s first season with the Mooseheads wasn’t anything special, he racked up just 29 points in 33 games played, a good mark for a then-rookie 16-year old, but not outlandish by any stretch. What a difference a year can make.
Drouin went from the tenth scorer on his own team last year to the second scorer in the entire league this year with 105 points in 49 games. He missed the scoring race title by five points, despite playing 19 less games than the leader.
Whenever he gets a hold of the puck in the neutral zone, it’s hold-on-to-your-hat time. He has exceptional skating and puck-handling abilities but more than that, and this is why I think he can challenge MacKinnon for the top spot, he doesn’t necessarily rely on his physical talents to exploit the defense. Sure, he has great puck-protection skills and can battle in the corners with the best of them but he knows he doesn’t always have to play like that. In fact, he shouldn’t be playing like that; at only 5’10”, although he’s very strong, he’s still very small. He could be four months away from playing against mammoths like Zdeno Chara and Dustin Byfuglien on a full-time basis, so his ability to use smarts over skill could serve him well in the future.
3. D – Seth Jones (Portland Winterhawks – WHL)
The reason why it’s so difficult to pick “the right player” in the top three is because of Seth Jones.
Projecting how a defenseman will turn out in the NHL when he’s still a teenager is as difficult a task as projecting a goaltender.
You just need to look at recent history:
- The 2012 NHL Entry Draft had eight defensemen chosen in the top 10 picks, none were NHL regulars this year.
- Three defensemen were chosen in the top 10 of the 2011 NHL draft, they have combined for 51 points in 189 games over the last two seasons, or a 22 point pace in an 82 game season.
- The two defensemen chosen in the top 10 in the 2010 NHL draft have combined for 32 games in the NHL in the last three years.
In fact, only three drafts – 2007, 2008 and 2011– since 2006 have had defensemen make substantial impacts among those chosen early. These drafts featured Alex Pietrangelo, Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Dougie Hamilton, Jonas Brodin and Victor Hedman.
Even immediate success won’t guarantee sustained success: Tyler Myers was the #12 overall pick in 2008 and won the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s top rookie that year. In every year since, his point/game pace has declined.
All that said, the talent that Seth Jones possesses is undeniable. Whenever I watch him play, the immediate comparison I make is Erik Karlsson. Although Jones is bigger (6’4” over 200 lbs) and plays a more physical game, the way he can skate and can control an offensive attack is glaringly similar. The best way I can describe it is Doughty’s physicality with Karlsson’s skating ability.
It will be interesting to see how Jones can transition to the NHL early on. He has lots of size for a junior player, but is slightly above-average as an NHLer. It would behoove him to rely on his talents instead of his size when he gets to the next level because there’s no guarantee it will give him a distinct advantage.
All that aside, Jones has everything you want in a cornerstone defenseman: size, speed, skill and smarts. If he understands that he doesn’t need to use his size to succeed early on in his career, this is a play-maker who can easily challenge for Rookie of the Year next year.
Those are your top three picks. I will have another piece out tomorrow that covers the rest of the important names to know in the draft.
