When it comes to anticipating what a young player like Yasiel Puig, Tony Cingrani, or Matt Harvey can do, the sky is the limit. Go nuts. When it comes to players with multi-year track records that have little deviation from the norm, you pretty much know what you’re going to get by the end of the year regardless of their early pace. Let’s take a look at three players whose production is not where their career norm is and what we can expect from them the rest of the way.
Ervin Santana: 3-5, 3.03 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 62 K/13 BB
Even after he posted a 5.16 ERA and led the league with 39 home runs allowed last season, I liked Ervin’s prospects for this season. He has more than surpassed them, but don’t expect that to last. Ervin has been around since 2005, we know what he can do. He’s a solid pitcher, sometimes even good, but not this good. The most impressive aspect of his 3.03 ERA is that he has given up 13 home runs and is on pace to match last season’s total. He may not be winning but his 1.06 WHIP and 7.2 K/9 make him a solid fantasy contributor in three of four categories.
The problem is, he’s been skating because the home runs aren’t hurting him as much as last season. His BB/9 is down from 3.1 in 2012 to 1.5 this season while his strikeout numbers have stayed mostly the same. A 1.5 BB/9 is impressive for anyone, much less a guy with a career 2.8. That number is unsustainable and is most certainly going to level out. Once that happens, his WHIP will level out to a more normal 1.25-1.35 (career 1.29). Once that happens, the home runs he’s giving up at a 1.5/9 pace are going to bring home a lot more runs, sending that ERA up to a more reasonable 3.60-4.20. He should have a solid season but don’t expect him to walk just 13 in any future 11 game stretch.
Fearless Prediction: 10-13, 3.68 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 167 K
Michael Cuddyer: .339/.397/.603, 10 HR, 37 RBI, 25 R, 5 SB
Like Ervin, Cuddyer has been around for a long time. He played his first full season in 2004 and has since put up a consistent .260-.280 BA, .750-.800 OPS, and 6.3-7.6 AB/RBI. He has done this for years and we know that his current .339 BA, 1.000 OPS, 4.7 AB/RBI is going to level out to the norm.
The one thing that has been wildly inconsistent is his home run output. His HR% has ranged from 1.1 to 4.9 and is currently at 5.2% this season. After hitting just 16 home runs in 394 at-bats last season, Cuddyer already has 10 through 174 at-bats. He wasn’t helped by playing in Colorado his first season but his bat seems to have come alive. That said, the home run output is directly tied to the other numbers being way higher than they usually are. Once his average goes down 60+ points and his OPS goes down 200 points, the home run production will follow.
Over his last 19 games, Cuddyer is batting .365 with five home runs, 17 RBI, 10 R, and three steals. Enjoy his hot bat while you can but mark him down as a highly likely second-half drop off.
Fearless Prediction: .282 BA, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 78 R, 11 SB
Gio Gonzalez: 3-3, 3.64 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 67 K/31 BB
After a Cy Young bid in 2012, Gio’s production this year has been fairly average. On the bright side, his season line doesn’t really tell the whole story. In April, Gio gave up five or more runs in three starts. If we take those three starts out of his 12 total starts, he has a sparkling season ERA of 1.85 and since April he has put up a 2.27 ERA, .193 BAA, and 31 K over six starts. While Ervin will level up to his norm, Gio’s norm is down around 2.90-3.20 ERA and I would expect that once again this season.
Fearless Prediction: 14-8, 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 187 K
