LeBron knows the ship has a leak, if it’s not yet at the bottom of the Atlantic. As he stated after going into Cleveland mode the other night, it’s “obvious [that Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are] struggling.” But the Heat’s woes are not encapsulated in the inefficiencies of its Big Three, even if those three are playing as mechanical as a bad Erik Spoelstra speech. After all, the 2012-13 Miami Heat weren’t the league’s best-shooting team―ever―without playing to their lab-made collective strengths.
Dwyane Wade has benn lambasted for implying that LeBron’s heroics might be hurting the team’s identity, and in a sense, he rightly should be. 14.5 PPG for a player of his caliber isn’t defensible even for someone suffering from a knee bone bruise. But Wade is right, even if his poor performance taints his insight. The Heat are one of the most efficient units in the NBA’s tenure. But that involves playing as a team; using the samurai-cuts of LeBron and Wade to expose collapsing holes in opposing defenses from where their outside shooters can launch high-percentages mortars.
But against Indiana, that gameplan has come up short. It hasn’t exactly been derailed―Heat shooters are just missing the sides of barns. It just hasn’t been performed up to par.
If they can come together as a team, they’ll have to perform exceptionally in the following four categories. Only then can they beat Indiana, and face off against a team who knows a thing or two about gameplans: the San Antonio Spurs.
Snipers At The Wings
During the regular season, Miami shot 43.1% for corner threes. It didn’t matter if its spot-up shooters were on the right side of the court or the left, they were dropping them at the exact same rate: 43.1 out of 100.
They’ve since acquired a Monta Ellis complex going for only 34.0% from the wings against Indiana. Of course, that’s no coincidence as Indiana was the best team when guarding from behind the arc in the regular season.
In their three wins, Miami has shot a more respectable 38.7% from the corners. In their three losses, the success rate drops by ten percentage points, or 28.7%.
If they want a Game 7 victory, those corner bombs need to fall.
Paintball
All but one game has been determined by who trounced the opposition in points scored in the paint. Game 2 has been the only game when Indiana and Miami ended up with identical numbers (40), and that contest saw Indy tie the series at one game apiece.
In Game 5, when Miami won the paint battle by only two points it also took the contest. So the good news for Indiana is that if it can at least tie the differential, the odds are stacked in their favor.
Knowing this, Miami must do their best to score off offensive rebounds or have LeBron and Wade feed the ball inside to their teammates on drives.
Forcing Hibbert to get into early foul trouble can also better their chances of scoring in the paint. Without their defensive anchor, Indiana would have a harder time stopping Miami from out-willing them inside.
Boxing Out Wins Box Scores, Unless You Play Miami
Despite their blatant lack of abilitiy in rounding up rebounds, Miami has more than enough weapons to make up for their lack of size. That’s been proven in the Eastern Conference Finals, as they’ve won games against Indiana despite losing the rebounding battle in every single one.
Keeping within 10 rebounds of Indiana’s total seems a good enough strategy, but not exactly foolproof either. In Game 2, the Heat remained within seven rebounds of the Pacers yet still lost the game. They did a worse job in Game 3 of rebounding, falling nine boards behind Indy, yet won that bout.
But staying within striking distance of Indiana’s league-best rebounding certainly helps their chances.
Inserting Joel Anthony into the fray for a small collection of minutes could help, as he’s rebounded the ball at the second-highest per-minute clip on Miami’s side in this series (.257).
No Quarter Like The Third
Winning the third quarter has been the truest indicator of success in these excellent Eastern Finals. For every game played, the team with most points in the third goes on to secure a W.
Game 5 offers the perfect template for a potential Game 7 third quarter for the Heat. In it, LeBron had 16 points, better than the Pacers’ 13 as a team, and also dished out four assists. When LeBron is playing both facilitator and attacker, throwing defenses back on their heels, he becomes an offensive lighting bolt. With added confidence, his teammates then become their own satellites of offensive prowess. And it becomes very bad, very quickly for whoever they’re playing.
A carbon-copy of Game 5’s third quarter could put the Heat in their third-straight Finals.
