The last installment of the ‘Top 30 ADP in 2-QB Leagues’ was right after the conclusion of last month’s NFL Draft. It’s been a month since we found out which of our favorite rookies got drafted by which teams, and how the rookie quarterbacks drafted impacted the quarterback ADP landscape; good-bye Mark Sanchez?
Since that time, we have also gotten our hands on some actual 2-QB ADP data, which provides us with a much better insight into the world of 2-QB fantasy football leagues. If you play in 2-QB fantasy football leagues, and are interested to find out how quarterbacks are being mock drafted this off-season, all you have to do is click on this link.
The quarterback ADP data used for the ‘Top 30 ADP in 2-QB Leagues’ series is taken from MyFantasyLeague.com (MFL), and while the site provides us with a useful resource, we have to remember that the data is tailored to 1-QB fantasy football leagues.
I also caution that when looking over the ADP data posted in this series, that you don’t focus on the actual ADP number, but rather the QB ADP rank. Below you’ll see two sets of QB ADP rankings: one from April 28 and one from May 26.
Now that you’ve briefed yourself on the world of quarterback ADP, what has changed in the past month or so, in terms of quarterback drafting?
The first six names on the list went unchanged, with the first movement occurring at QB7, with Matt Ryan moving up two spots, from QB9 to QB7.
I’m not really sure what happened for Ryan to move up in the rankings, but I do welcome it. He was QB7 in standard scoring fantasy leagues last season, and QB5 in 6-points/passing TD leagues. I think Ryan could be a top-5 option at the quarterback position in fantasy football this year, and would have no problem with him as my QB1.
I feel that way about any of the top-14 ranked quarterbacks in the May 26th MFL ADP, actually. I already stated my case that Ben Roethlisberger is a QB1 in 2-QB leagues, and the other 13 quarterbacks don’t need any hyping from me. I imagine those 14 quarterbacks, in some shape or form, will be the top-14 ranked quarterbacks going into drafting season, with a few tweaks here and there, in terms of order. You already saw how in a month’s time Ryan, Peyton Manning, Robert Griffin III, and Matthew Stafford, re-arranged the QB7 to QB10 order.
And don’t be surprised to see RG3 ranked even higher, if it looks like he’s all healed up. If RG3’s ADP were to rise into the QB3 range, would we be all that surprised?
Ryan Tannehill (QB18) and Josh Freeman (QB20) flip-flopped positions, and I think the Tannehill train has been adding more passengers this off-season. Mike Wallace is a fan, and the weapons that the Dolphins have brought in such as Wallace, Dustin Keller, and Brandon Gibson, show that the coaching staff wants to build around their second-year quarterback. Tannehill was the 24th highest scoring fantasy quarterback last year, a QB2 in 12-team leagues, and that was with only 12 passing touchdowns. Those 12 passing touchdowns accounted for the worst passing touchdown performance of any of the top-24 fantasy scoring quarterbacks last season. Christian Ponder, who had 18 passing touchdowns, was the second worst top-24 fantasy quarterback in that category.
Tannehill’s 12 passing touchdowns accounted for 26.25% off his fantasy points in standard scoring leagues last season. Compare that to Ponder (37.27%), Brees (49.74%), and Dalton (43.1%), and it’s safe to say that if Tannehill improves in the passing touchdown category, he could become a viable QB2 option next season. He’s not Brees, but Dalton was a fantasy football QB1 last season, and look at how many of his points came from passing touchdowns. Even a slight bump in passing touchdowns would do wonders for Tannehill’s fantasy stock.
ProFantasyFocus, as of May 26, projects 260 fantasy points for Tannehill in 2013. They have him projected for 20 passing touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. PFF’s projections only deduct -1 for INTs, so if we take away an additional 9 points, to account for leagues that deduct -2 points for INTs, that would bring Tannehill’s projection to 251 points. In 2012, 251 points would have been good enough for QB12 in fantasy football, or, basically, a fantasy football QB1.
Freeman’s free-fall can probably be blamed on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafting Mike Glennon in the third round of the 2013 NFL Draft, and head coach Greg Schiano’s lukewarm seal of approval on his incumbent starter. There hasn’t been much competition for Freeman in Tampa Bay, and now with Glennon in the fold, Freeman might have a small grasp on the starting quarterback gig. It wouldn’t surprise me to see his ADP continue to drop, and it will be interesting to monitor it, the further along we get in the off-season.
One name to circle is Alex Smith. At QB27, he’s just outside the QB2 range, and he’s a quarterback I have been targeting. He makes for the perfect QB3, because he’s a quarterback you should feel confident playing as your QB2. Andy Reid is known as a pass happy coach, he has a bona fide #1 WR in Dwayne Bowe, and a running back who can catch the ball, and knows what to do with it after the catch in Jamaal Charles. I’ve touted this article many times this off-season, but Kyle Wachtel’s breakdown of Smith, and his projection of Smith in Reid’s offense should tell you why Smith needs to be a top QB2 target.
Last month saw 37 quarterbacks ranked, and this month an additional seven entered the fray: Blaine Gabbert, Tyler Wilson, Kevin Kolb, Mike Glennon, Mark Sanchez, Nick Foles, and Brock Osweiler.
The only name to truly keep an eye on, out of those seven, for now, is Kevin Kolb. Rookie E.J. Manuel hasn’t been anointed the starter in Buffalo yet, and new Bills head coach Doug Marrone, and his offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, are scheming up quite the offense in Buffalo. Check out Cian Fahey’s thorough and in-depth take on the Bills’ offense over at his site, Pre-SnapReads.com.
We might not want to draft Kolb in fantasy football, but if you dismiss him outright, as a fantasy football quarterback option, you’re missing out on a player who could provide dividends for your fantasy football team. As the 40th drafted QB, you’re looking at the perfect late round QB option in the world of 2-QB fantasy football leagues. Even if you think the Bills are tailoring the offense to Manuel, that doesn’t mean they can’t do so for Kolb, as well, if he’s named the Bills’ starting quarterback. Here’s what Fahey had to say on that topic:
“If Kevin Kolb is the Bills’ starter, they won’t have the same expansive play at the quarterback position, but they will still have an offense that can adapt to it’s surroundings and stretch defenses in a variety of ways.”
The Bills loaded up on the offensive side of the ball this off-season, drafting receivers Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin, tight end Chris Gragg, and signing undrafted free agent Da’Rick Rogers. Add them to the Bills’ current offensive weapons such as Stevie Johnson, T.J. Graham, Scott Chandler, Fred Jackson, and C.J. Spiller, and whoever the Buffalo quarterback is, they should have a productive 2013 campaign.
Again, make sure to remember that the ADP from MFL is more suited for 1-QB leagues, but it does give us some insight into the quarterback position in fantasy football, and that could be helpful when preparing for your 2-QB fantasy football draft. Especially if you’re a long-time 2-QB fantasy football owner, and are looking for an advantage over those new to the world of 2-QB fantasy football.
Stats and data used in this article courtesy of ProFooballFocus Fantasy, MyFantasyLeague.com, and NFLData.com.
