Regardless of the position, when ranking NFL rookie draft picks freshly after an NFL Draft has completed, you have two factors to consider: landing spot and opportunity. Obviously talent is also a part of the equation, but I tend to place more emphasis on the particular team a rookie got drafted to, and how much of a chance they will have to contribute right away.
Talent has something to do with it as well, and talent eventually wins out in the end, but opportunity is a big factor in the short-term prospects of rookie draft picks. That’s something to keep in mind when reading over my 2013 NFL rookie QB draft rankings for 2-QB fantasy football leagues.
Just so we’re on the same page, I want to make clear that these rankings are for the benefit of fantasy footballers playing in 2-QB fantasy leagues. There’s no Andrew Luck or RG3 in this year’s rookie quarterback grouping that you can start in your 1-QB league immediately. In 2-QB leagues though, you have to look at any and all quarterbacks you can get your hands on, and there may be a rookie quarterback or two, that will have some impact during the 2013 NFL season.
E.J. Manuel might have been the first quarterback drafted in the 2013 NFL Draft, but it very well could turn out that the quarterback who many assumed would be drafted first, Geno Smith, winds up having the better NFL career. However, that doesn’t mean that Manuel might not have the better fantasy year in their respective 2013 debut seasons.
Both Manuel and Smith find themselves in situations where the opportunity is there to start right away, which would add a couple of more names to the already deep fantasy quarterback pool. With that in mind, let’s see how I rank the rookie quarterbacks in terms of opportunity and situation…
2013 2-QB Rookie Rankings
1. E.J. Manuel
The current quarterback depth chart in Buffalo has Kevin Kolb and Tavaris Jackson at the top of it. Does that sound like a quarterback duo that will have long-term success, or even short-term success, in both real life and fake football? Not really. The Bills knew they had to do something about their quarterback position, and for them, the answer was raw-with-potential, E.J. Manuel, who the Bills drafted 16th over, the only first round rookie quarterback draft pick this year.
More and more rookie quarterbacks are being thrown into the gauntlet at the outset of their career, and Manuel could be the latest 1st round rookie quarterback to start a significant amount of games in first year. Russ Brandon, Bills president, has said that Manuel was drafted to be, “another bell-cow quarterback to compete for the job.” That sounds like Manuel will be given a fair shot at being the Bills’ starting quarterback this season, at the very least.
While Manuel isn’t the next RG3, the offensive weapons around him are pretty enticing. The electrifying C.J. Spiller is backed up by former productive starting running back, Fred Jackson. The Bills’ #1 wide receiver, Stevie Johnson, is a dependable target, and will have some rookie wide receivers in Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin to take the pressure off him, which should give Johnson some open looks. Scott Chandler has shown that he’s a serviceable tight end at times, and RotoViz tight end favorite, Chris Gragg, was also brought on board.
There are many rookie quarterbacks that are tossed into situations that scream failure. Manuel looks like he’s being thrown into a decent situation, which could provide instant dividends for 2-QB owners looking for a late round quarterback to target. Manuel is currently the 28th quarterback being drafted, on average, and in 12-team 2-QB leagues, that’s QB3 range. That’s about the right ADP for Manuel, for now, and could prove to be a decent spot starter when your starting quarterbacks are on a bye. You might not believe me when I tell you this, but Ryan Tannehill, in standard scoring leagues last season, did put up three top ten fantasy quarterback scoring performances. There’s always hope when it comes to fantasy quarterbacks.
2. Geno Smith
Geno Smith is the only other rookie quarterback I would consider drafting in 2-QB re-draft leagues right now. Just like Manuel sees himself in a situation where he has the chance to start immediately, so too does Smith. The Jets’ quarterback depth chart reads more like a stand-up comedy routine than a depth chart:
QB1 Mark Sanchez
QB2 David Garrard
QB3 Greg McElroy
QB4 Not Tim Tebow
If it wasn’t for Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan’s Sanchez tattoo, Sanchez probably would have been cut by now; but he’s still there. The arrival of Smith should worry Sanchez, as he’s an actual quarterback that can threaten Sanchez’s reign atop the Jets’ quarterbacking hierarchy. Smith has been known to deal with accuracy issues during his collegiate career at West Virginia, but Jets fans would look at Geno as the second coming of Joe Namath, if it meant finally getting rid of Sanchez.
Even though Smith was viewed as the better quarterback prospect in the 2013 NFL Draft, and he does have a chance to start right away, like Manuel, the talent surrounding Smith isn’t anywhere near as appealing as what the Bills have to offer. Chris Ivory and Mike Goodson make for a good 1-2 punch, but they’re no Spiller-Jackson. And Santonio Holmes, Stephen Hill and Jeremy Kerley are the top three wide-outs in New York, with Jeff Cumberland the current starting tight end on the roster.
When choosing between Manuel and Smith in fantasy football this year, I’m leaning towards Manuel. However, just like Manuel is currently being drafted in the QB3 range, Smith provides the same sort of value; it’s just that I would go with Manuel over Smith.
3. Matt Barkley
The Philadelphia Eagles’ quarterback situation, while just as muddled as the Jets’, is a little different. In the case of Philadelphia, they have four legitimate starting quarterback options in Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Dennis Dixon and 4th round rookie draft pick Matt Barkley. Vick seems to be front-runner for the Eagles’ starting quarterback job in 2013, with Barkley probably not getting higher than second on the depth chart.
With Vick though, we’ve seen him get injured so many times before in his career, and if Barkley were second in line, that would put him in a good position to start a few games this season, if Vick were to get injured. Right now, Barkley is nothing more than a QB3 in 2-QB leagues, but if he were to find himself the starter in Philadelphia, in Chip Kelly’s offense, surrounded by LeSean McCoy, Bryce Brown, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, James Casey and Zach Ertz, it wouldn’t be inconceivable to bump Barkley into the QB2 tier.
4. Mike Glennon
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are another team with a great group of offensive weapons that any quarterback would love to be surrounded by: Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson, and Mike Williams. Those three players would make things easier for any rookie quarterback, and for a quarterback like Mike Glennon, who’s one strength is his deep ball, it would be nice to see him connect on a few long bomb passes to Jackson and Williams.
The situation for Glennon is good. But the opportunity isn’t. Even if Bucs Head Coach Greg Schiano wants no part of incumbent Josh Freeman, as some rumors have stated, Freeman will be given the chance to continue as the Bucs’ starting quarterback. However, Freeman only has one more year remaining on his rookie contract, and Glennon could be groomed as his eventual replacement. If Freeman does struggle at some point this upcoming season, look for Schiano to entertain the thought of inserting his third round rookie quarterback into regular season game action.
In the meantime, Glennon shouldn’t be drafted higher than a QB3 in re-draft leagues, and put him at the top of your waiver wire wish list once the season starts, as long as he goes undrafted in your 2-QB league.
5. Tyler Wilson
The opportunity and situation are both there for Tyler Wilson in Oakland. Wilson has only Terrelle Pryor and Matt Flynn to worry about, but the feeling is that the Raiders would love to see what either one of them could do, before giving Wilson a chance.
We’re going to have to wait and see what the final quarterback depth chart will look like in Oakland heading into the season before ranking these three in 2-QB leagues. If it turns out that Wilson winds up third on the list, he won’t be of much fantasy value in 2-QB leagues. The deeper we get into the off-season, the better an idea we’ll have as to what his draft slot should be. QB3/QB4 range seems like a good spot for him, at the moment, and puts him in the back-up range of fantasy 2-QB leagues.
6. Matt Scott
The first undrafted rookie to make an appearance, Matt Scott, is ranked because I think he has the best chance of any rookie not named Geno Smith or E.J. Manuel, to start for an NFL team this season. Is Scott more talented than Manuel, Smith, Wilson, Glennon or Barkley? No. Is he a flawless quarterback? No. But, he does have a couple of things going for him in Jacksonville that could lead to him being this year’s Russell Wilson.
The first is opportunity. Blame Gabbert and Chad Henne are the Jaguars’ best options at quarterback. We’ve seen what Gabbert has to offer, and it ain’t much. Henne, while not a premier quarterback talent in his own rights, was able to inject some life into that Jaguars passing offense last season, and showed that Justin Blackmon does have fantasy football value.
Something else that plays in Scott’s favor is that his college quarterbacks coach, Franck Scelfo, also finds himself in Jacksonville, coaching the quarterbacks. If there’s anybody that knows what Scott has to offer, and how to highlight his strengths, it would be his college quarterbacks coach.
Scott is an athletic and mobile quarterback that was once projected as a mid-round pick. For whatever reason he went undrafted, and will have to battle Aaron Rodgers’ brother, Jordan, for QB3 duties in Jacksonville. But if new Head Coach Gus Bradley, and GM David Caldwell let the kids compete, Bradley could get another up close and personal view of an unheralded rookie quarterback stealing the job from the presumed starting quarterback. Bradley was in Seattle last year when Pete Carroll named Russell Wilson his starter, over Matt Flynn, and Scott could be this year’s Cinderella quarterback story.
I’ll be the first to admit that it’s a long shot that Scott makes any impact in Jacksonville this season. You don’t hear too much about undrafted rookie quarterbacks making an impact in the NFL. But, if Scott were to somehow see some playing time this year, could it be all that bad? Maurice Jones-Drew, Justin Blackmon, Cecil Shorts, and Marcedes Lewis would provide some nice security blankets for any quarterback.
Scott will probably go undrafted in many 2-QB re-draft leagues, so if you want him, you can probably wait until the draft is over to get him and get him for free. Nothing wrong with free fantasy football quarterbacks, right? I’d rank Scott as a QB4, at best, and wait to see how it all plays out in Jacksonville.
The best of the rest:
7. Landry Jones
8. Zac Dysert
9. Ryan Nassib
10. Sean Renfree
I ranked the above four rookie quarterbacks based on their situation. None of them should see the field this season, if their teams have anything to say about it, as each team that drafted them has quite the capable starting quarterback leading the charge (Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan). They should all see no playing time this season, unless catastrophic injuries occur to the quarterback above them on the depth chart, which pretty much mutes their fantasy value in 2-QB leagues.
Take Ryan Nassib, as an example. Eli Manning is currently on a streak of 146 consecutive starts. Landry Jones is at the top of this grouping because Roethlisberger has missed some minimal playing time during his career, so he would have the best chance to start.
Just make sure you don’t make plans to draft any of these quarterbacks in re-draft 2-QB leagues, and keep them on your waiver wire watch throughout the season.
11. Tyler Bray
I wanted to single out Tyler Bray for a moment because his situation is a little more appealing than any of the other quarterbacks ranked 7-10. Even though Andy Reid chose Alex Smith as his starter, and traded away a 2nd round pick this year, plus a conditional 2014 draft pick, to get him, that doesn’t necessarily mean Reid is beholden to Smith.
We’ve seen Reid’s history with quarterbacks, and he’s always willing to go a different direction if it suits his needs. Some in the NFL Draft community thought that Bray should have been drafted, and that he has the best arm out of the 11 quarterbacks that did get drafted. If there’s anybody that likes to work with quarterbacks, it’s Andy Reid, and it wouldn’t come as a complete shocker if Bray were to win the back-up quarterback role over Chase Daniel. Being the back-up in Kansas City should be an interesting situation to monitor for fantasy football owners in 2-QB leagues, and Bray would be a name to keep an eye on, if that were to be the case.
You don’t need to consider Bray in your 2-QB drafts yet, but just monitor Kansas City during the off-season. There’s no need to draft him now, but he could an intriguing quarterback to look out for, as the season goes along.
In case you were wondering, the only reason Bray was ranked 11th, instead of anywhere between 7-10, was because he went undrafted, and Andy Reid has reason to make things work with Alex Smith.
