We are almost through three weeks of baseball and the seasoned daytrader can already see trends developing for some fantasy baseball sleepers. Sure, you can’t base a season off of 20 games but you can definitely tell that someone like Travis Hafner has definitely rediscovered his stroke while someone like Emilio Bonifacio has misplaced his speed. You can also tell this is going to be a season filled with closer changes and no ninth-inning stopper is safe. Let’s take a look at who’s up and who’s down in the only stock market that truly matters, the fantasy baseball trading floor.
Buy:
Andrew Bailey: Strong Buy. With Joel Hanrahan headed to the DL, Andrew Bailey is back where he belongs – the ninth inning. He’s off to an excellent start, giving up just one run, three hits, and two walks in 6.1 IP while striking out 11. John Farrell said Wednesday that there’s no guarantee that Hanrahan gets the closer job back when he returns, especially since he’s given up six runs on three homers while surrendering six hits, five walks, and a wild pitch in just 4.2 IP.
Jose Quintana: Strong Buy. Quintana is a former Mets and Yankees prospect who inexplicably never got a shot despite never putting up a minor league ERA higher than 3.26. He looked solid in his first big league action last year, going 6-6 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He only put up a 5.3 K/9 last season despite having a great 10 K/9 through his minor league career. We’re seeing the real Jose Quintana so far this year and he looks great having given up just five runs in 17.2 IP while striking out 17 and walking four. The K/BB will likely even out but this is a kid who has always kept runs and baserunners scarce while striking out batters at a very good rate.
Tony Cingrani: Strong Buy. We’ve all been burned by overhyped rookies before but there seems to be a consensus in the baseball world that this kid is the real deal. It’s hard to argue considering how quickly and effectively he’s raced through the minors. Take a look at these numbers:
2011: Rookie League: 3-2, 51.1 IP, 1.75 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 80 K/6 BB
2012: A+: 5-1, 56.2 IP, 1.73 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 71 K/13 BB
2012: AA: 5-3, 89.1 IP, 2.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 101 K/39 BB
2013: AAA: 1-0, 14.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.35 WHIP, 26 K/2 BB
If that’s not something to be excited about, I don’t know what is.
Ross Detwiler: Solid Buy. Obviously his 0.90 ERA and 1.00 WHIP won’t last but Detwiler is another in a long line of pitchers that doesn’t get fantasy respect because his strikeout numbers are mediocre. Over his last two seasons, Detwiler owns a 3.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 0.9 HR/9. Are his 5.7 K/9 and 2.03 K/BB desirable? No, but his two earned runs in 20 IP this year sure is.
Travis Hafner: Solid Buy. It’s been a long time since Travis Hafner hit more than 16 home runs in one season but most of that has been largely due to injury. Undoubtedly, he will likely have to deal with injuries again this year, that’s just the way it goes when you’re averaging 86 games per season since 2008. That said, his HR% returned to 4.6% last season (right around what it was when he was consistently hitting 24+ HR for Cleveland) while his K% dropped from 21.2% to 17.9%, one of the best in his career. Injury prone or not, this is a 36-year-old who showed signs of turning it around last year and is currently on fire with four homers, eight RBI, and nine runs in 12 games in a lineup that may not look great but is playing it.
Sell:
Derek Jeter: Jeter had his workouts scaled back this week and while Joe Girardi says it isn’t a setback, you have to be nervous when a 38-year-old recovering from a broken ankle continues to move backwards (if you recall, he was supposed to actually play in spring training before getting shut down). Jeter is currently owned in 81% of Yahoo leagues, which is inexplicable for a guy who is averaging 10 HR, 60 RBI, 92 R, and 12 SB over the last two seasons. When Jeter will return is still a mystery but even if it’s soon, how much do you think he’ll produce? Will it really be more than lesser-owned shortstops like Alexei Ramirez, JJ Hardy, Danny Espinosa, Everth Cabrera, or even Jean Segura?
Emilio Bonifacio: Bonifacio is a career .265 hitter who has scored more than 72 runs just once in his career. The only reason he’s fantasy relevant is his speed, especially after starting last season with 20 steals in just 39 games. Of course, the rest of his season was plagued with injuries and he managed to steal just 10 bases the rest of the season. It looks like the injuries could have zapped that speed. Not only is Bonifacio yet to steal a base, he has yet to attempt a steal. In 14 games, he’s batting just .200 and while he’s been solid with the extra-base hits (six doubles, one triple), his fantasy stats are rough – four RBI, five runs, 16 K/1 BB. If you were expecting him to be a burner this year (I was), it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.
Tim Lincecum: Lincecum led the league with 15 losses last year as he put up a 5.18 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and a league-leading 17 wild pitches. He followed that up with a rough post-season and returned with a rougher spring training. Thus far, he has allowed 12 runs in just 16 IP while walking a league-leading 12 batters. Despite all this, he’s owned in 92% of Yahoo leagues. 92%! I obviously see the appeal of a 29-year-old who put up four phenomenal years and won back-to-back Cy Youngs but that’s just not the whole story, is it?
Joel Hanrahan: See Andrew Bailey.
