With the season kicking off in less than five days, spring training is just about in the books and we can finally start talking real numbers next week. Until then, we only have the exhibition games to go on which is still better than nothing. At the very least, it’s better to enter the season hot than enter the season as Ricky Romero.
The one area where spring training really matters is position battles. We are definitely seeing guys like Aaron Hicks, Matt Adams, Brandon Maurer, Julio Teheran, and Chris Rusin make strong cases for starting jobs despite having minimal Major League experience or none at all. Let’s take a look at how the younger lesser-known guys stack up against the stars.
Hitters:
Justin Upton (ATL): 19/67, .284 BA, .930 OPS, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 12 R, 1 SB
One of two newly acquired Uptons, Justin leads the league with 19 RBI in just 67 at-bats this spring for the Braves who have four players on the leaders list. Over his last four seasons Upton is averaging a .286 BA, .846 OPS, 23 HR, 78 RBI, 92 R, 19 SB, and 30 2B.
Brandon Belt (SF): 29/64, .453 BA, 1.384 OPS, 7 HR, 18 RBI, 13 R, 3 SB, 6 2B
Belt is rarely mentioned among the elite up-and-coming hitters but has the potential to be a serious threat. His .781 OPS and 56 RBI last season were alright for a player in his first full season but Belt has the potential to be a 20-20 guy with a nice average. He is just two years removed from a 23 HR, 112 RBI, 99 R, 10 3B, 22 SB, .352 BA season in his first go-around in the minors and at just 25 he has the potential develop into the next Joey Votto.
Domonic Brown (PHI): 31/83, .373 BA, 1.103 OPS, 7 HR, 17 RBI, 24 R, 4 2B
The former fourth-top prospect in the league has been disappointing in his short stints in the bigs but I think this is the year things finally come together for the 25-year-old. He currently leads the league with 24 runs scored and with healed up lineup around him I think he can put up 70+ RBI and 70+ R this season.
Freddie Freeman (ATL): 25/73, .342 BA, 7 HR, 16 RBI, 15 R
In his first two seasons, Freeman hit 45 homers and drove in 171 – all before turning 23. Not only is he already a top 10 first baseman, he is still developing. I fully expect to see Freeman in his first All-Star game this season.
Ryan Howard (PHI): 26/77, .338 BA, 1.044 OPS, 7 HR, 16 RBI, 16 R, 5 2B
Howard has made every edition of our Spring Training stats leader coverage because he continues to destroy the opposition. His seven long balls are tied for the league lead and his 12 extra-base hits this spring are very encouraging after he had just 25 XBH in 260 at-bats last year. I think Howard leads a Phillies’ turnaround this year, along with Domonic Brown, Chase Utley, and the newly acquired Michael Young.
Juan Francisco (ATL): 23/65, .354 BA, 1.065 OPS, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 12 R, 4 2B
When Francisco was tasked with replacing Chipper Jones, I had my doubts (and I still do), but the 26-year-old is looking great through 23 spring games and with a strong lineup around him composed of the Uptons, Freeman, and Jayson Heyward, he just might be able to pull off a solid season.
Aaron Hicks (MIN): 25/66, .379 BA, 1.101 OPS, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 18 R, 6 2B, 3 SB
A top prospect for the last five years, the 23-year-old had no problems winning the Twins’ starting centerfield job out of spring training despite never playing in a Major League game. Although he may yet develop the power to hit 20+ homers, he currently projects as a .270-.285, 15 HR, 70+ RBI, 30+ 2B, 10+ 3B, 30+ SB, 85+ R player that any fantasy owner should be excited about.
Matt Adams (STL): 18/58, .310 BA, .894 OPS, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 4 2B
Adams didn’t play much last season despite putting up 32 HR, 101 RBI, and 80 R in just 115 minor league games in 2011. The Cards also don’t seem to have a spot for him despite a red hot spring training. I think that’s a mistake, Adams batted .318 over 366 minor league games and doesn’t strike out a lot which is rare for a power hitting corner infielder. Too bad the Cards have an embarrassment of riches in the corner infield with Allen Craig, David Freese, Matt Carpenter, Adams, and Ty Wigginton.
Pitchers:
Jon Lester (BOS): 20 IP, 0.90 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 16 K, 4 BB
After a 9-14 season in which he put up a career-high 4.82 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, Lester appears to be on the comeback trail with just six hits and four walks allowed in 20 innings. Like Philly, I expect Boston to bounce back this season (somewhat) and Lester will need to be a big part of that.
Clay Buchholz (BOS): 18.2 IP, 0.96 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 16 K, 5 BB
Like Lester, Buchholz is coming off a rough season (4.56 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) but looks like he has shaken all of that off with five strong outings this spring. To be fair, Buchholz’s biggest problem last year was 25 home runs allowed in 29 games after he allowed just nine homers in 28 games in 2010. If he can stay healthy I think we see the guy we saw in 2010-11 again.
Brandon Maurer (SEA): 20 IP, 0.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 22 K, 6 BB
Despite never playing a Major League game, I don’t see any way the 22-year-old isn’t starting for the Mariners all season. After going 9-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 117 K in 137 IP in Double-A last season, it looks like he is definitely ready to skip Triple-A entirely.
Julio Teheran (ATL): 26 IP, 1.04 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 35 K, 9 BB
Teheran has been one of the biggest stories of the spring, striking out a league-leading 35 batters while allowing just seven hits in 26 innings of work. Not only does Teheran have a lock on the Braves rotation, the 22-year-old is quickly becoming one of the most talked about fantasy prospects everywhere you look.
Josh Johnson (TOR): 16 IP, 1.13 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 21 K, 1 BB
Josh Johnson is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Between 2009-11, he went 29-12 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9. It’s incredible how many people jumped off the Johnson bandwagon after he put up his highest ERA ever – 3.81. I think Johnson bounces back in a big way for the Blue Jays now that he is away from the mess that was the 2012 Miami Marlins.
Chris Rusin (CHC): 23.1 IP, 1.93 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 10 K, 4 BB
The Cubs rotation is stacked with mediocre pitchers which means Rusin will be back in the minors. Despite the strong spring, I think this is one guy I’m not disappointed to see go after he put up a 6.37 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in Major League starts last year and a 4.00+ ERA in his last two seasons in the minors.
Jon Niese (NYM): 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 12 K, 9 BB
I think Niese is primed for a breakout season as the Mets’ new ace after going 13-9 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 2012. Although he has walked nine this spring, walks have never been a problem for Niese. His problem is the hits allowed, 8.2 last year and 10.2 the year before. His 10 hits allowed through 17.2 innings are promising but don’t mean much at the end of the day.
J.A. Happ (TOR): 19 IP, 1.89 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 14 K, 3 BB
Now that the Blue Jays have finally rid themselves of Ricky Romero (at least for the time being), J.A. Happ is getting the chance to start in a very deep rotation. I’m not a huge fan of Happ but if can look past his horrible numbers in Houston he is actually a decent pitcher with a 3.00-3.70 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. In any case, he’s better than Ricky Romero who put up a 6.23 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in the spring and now finds himself playing A+ ball.
While some guys did a great job making the team, plenty of up-and-comers ended up getting a ticket back to the minors. Still, I expect to see Jurickson Profar, Yasiel Puig, Travis d’Arnaud, and Christian Yelich back in the bigs sooner than later. And Wil Myers by mid-June.
