NHL Fantasy Hockey: Week Four Preview (Feb. 11-17)

Tampa Bay Lightning goalie Anders Lindback

It was a great week for those of you that have multiple players from the New Jersey Devils roster. David Clarkson, Patrik Elias, Ilya Kovalchuk and Andy Greene all finished in the top-10 in a standard roto format while both Martin Brodeur and Johan Hedberg were top-12 goalies. The Devils are one of the best stories of the season so far, sitting atop the Eastern Conference despite losing one of the cornerstones in Zach Parise in the offseason.

Let’s take a look ahead to the upcoming week.

Two-Game Teams

The only two-game team this week is the Edmonton Oilers. This could hurt lots of people in a H2H format as they are loaded with offensive talent that many of you probably rely on. Because they are so proficient at scoring and the teams they are playing (Dallas, Colorado), I can see starting them this week. It is a huge risk though, because there is a lot of downside in doing so. Understanding the rest of your roster and the roster of your opponent is critical in making this decision.

Three-Game Teams

Anaheim, Boston, Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, Colorado, Columbus, Detroit, Florida, Los Angeles, Montréal, Nashville, New Jersey, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Ottawa Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Vancouver, Washington, Winnipeg

The vast majority of teams this week play three games. There are also lots of teams that play in a back-to-back situation:

  • Anaheim – @ Detroit, Nashville
  • Carolina – @ New York Islanders, Devils
  • Columbus – @ Los Angeles, Phoenix
  • New Jersey – vs. Philadelphia, @ New York Islanders
  • Ottawa – vs. Buffalo, @ Pittsburgh
  • San Jose – @ Columbus, Nashville
  • Los Angeles – St. Louis

The emergence of Viktor Fasth has given Anaheim lots to think about. Jonas Hiller is still just day-t0-day and Detroit and Nashville are not easy tests, be wary of expecting big things from Fasth. Ottawa has been on a big slide lately, going 1-3-1 in their last five games, scoring just seven goals over that stretch. Be wary of starting anyone from that team this week. San Jose has cooled down considerably as well lately, going 0-2-2 in their last four games and scoring just five over that stretch. A back-to-back starts off with Columbus, but then they travel to Nashville before facing the still-perfect-in-regulation Chicago Blackhawks. I would expect the Sharks’ cool-down to continue. Los Angeles is sneaky this week. They don’t have an official back-to-back this week, but they played yesterday and play again tonight in St. Louis, followed by hosting Columbus and visiting Chicago. I would think they perform similarly to San Jose this week. Boston is in for three tough games this week, hosting the Rangers before going on the road to face Buffalo and Winnipeg. Tuukka Rask looks like a solid play, however. In addition to Anaheim and San Jose, Washington plays all three games on the road this week (Florida, Tampa Bay, Rangers). For a winless road team, this isn’t a good thing. With games against Montréal, Washington and Florida, look for Tampa Bay to just keep rolling along this week so start ’em if you got ’em. After playing just two home games in their first twelve, Chicago plays all three at home this week against the three reeling California teams. Nashville stumbled a bit yesterday but I expect them to keep rolling with three home games this week of their own. Two other teams also play their three games at home this week in Winnipeg and Vancouver. While the Canucks have it “easy” with Minnesota, Dallas and St. Louis, the Jets get Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Boston. Good luck, Jets fans.

Four-Game Teams

Calgary, Dallas, Minnesota, Philadelphia, St. Louis

It’s a weird week for one of these teams. Philadelphia has four games, but they’re both in back-to-back sets and they are all on the road. Their first two games are at Toronto and Winnipeg, followed by games at New Jersey and Montreal. I’ve never seen a schedule quite like this and despite the four games, it will be a tough week for anyone with Philadelphia players. Calgary is becoming a fantasy tirefire, so start any Flames players at your own peril. Dallas has a big Canadian road swing, playing back-to-backs against Edmonton and Calgary before finishing in Vancouver. They then go home to host Calgary. In all, their offensive players should have a good week this week. Minnesota has a grab-bag week, with a back-t0-back on the road this week in Calgary and Vancouver before coming home to host Colorado and Detroit. There’s a couple easy games and a couple tough ones. St. Louis has four games this week but no back-to-backs. I worry about their goaltending situation, so if you have better options looks elsewhere.

Players I Like This Week

Forwards

Brandon Saad (LW – Chicago) – The rookie has found his way to the top line with Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa and has even snuck some power-play  and short-handed time as well over the last few games. He’s been a goal scorer at every level he’s played at and has now been put in a great position to succeed. With three home games against three reeling teams, this could be a big week for him.

Patrick Dwyer (RW – Carolina) – A career minor leaguer or fourth liner, Dwyer is another player (although not a rookie) who is being put in a tremendous position to succeed. Now playing on the second line with Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner, Dwyer has two goals and an assist in his last four games and looks to have good chemistry on that line (from what I’ve seen). He is also now seeing some power-play time so this could be a sneaky play if you’re battling injuries.

Defence

Shea Weber (D – Nashville) – Typically, recommending to start Shea Weber is so ridiculously obvious I wouldn’t do it. But with one assist in his first 11 games, it’s not a given depending on your roster. I like the fact that he has three home games this week and they have scored 10 goals in their last four games (that’s an incredible improvement). Look for Weber to pot his first goal of the year.

Sheldon Souray (D – Anaheim) – Until Cam Fowler returns, I’m going to keep rolling with the Souray train. He had a great week last week with two goals, one assist and a (+5) rating. There are three tough road games ahead, but hopefully his power-play production can outweigh a possible minus rating.

Goalies

Anders Lindback (Tampa Bay) – After winning five of his first six starts, he’s lost two straight and allowed eight goals in his last two and a half games. With a softball schedule like Montréal, Washington and Florida ahead, look for him to bounce back and earn at least two wins this week.

Mike Smith (Phoenix) – Speaking of softball schedules, the Coyotes are on the road to face Colorado and Nashville before hosting Columbus; all three are bottom six teams in terms of goals-for this year. Smith has been very hit-or-miss this year – he’s allowed six goals twice in eight games, did so twice in 67 games last year – but look for him to tear it up this week.

Players I Don’t Like This Week

Forwards

Milan Lucic (LW – Boston) – Lucic is off to a good start this year with six points in 10 games with an awesome 28 PIMs to boot. However with a home game against the Rangers and road games in Buffalo and Winnipeg, look for this ill-tempered bull to lose his cool more than once this week when playing in hostile territory. The PIMs will probably be there, but be wary about any point production.

Matt Moulson (LW – Islanders) – Despite a very strong start to this shortened campaign – 4 G, 6 A in 11 GP – the Islanders are in for a tough stretch this week. They are facing Cam Ward and Henrik Lundqvist, who are both turning their seasons around after disappointing starts, finishing the week by facing the Devils, the top team in the East right now. Moulson hasn’t scored in nearly two weeks and I look for this trend to continue.

Defence

Andrei Markov (Montréal) – After scoring four goals in his first four games of the year he hasn’t scored in seven games now and had just two assists with a (-3) rating last week. Montréal as a whole are trending downward and I don’t see Markov breaking out again now that P.K. Subban is back.

Drew Doughty (Los Angeles) – In one of the most disappointing starts to the fantasy season, Drew Doughty has the worst +/- in the NHL at (-10) and has yet to score a goal. The Kings have a home game against Columbus but it is sandwiched with road games against St. Louis and Chicago. I wouldn’t expect him to get his first goal of the year this week.

Goalies

Ilya Bryzgalov (Philadelphia) – In one of the worst scheduling gaffes I have ever seen, like I said earlier, the Flyers have four road games this week, split into two back-to-back scenarios. The schedule could be tougher – B2B #1 is Toronto/Winnipeg, #2 is New Jersey/Montréal – but nonetheless you can’t expect him to succeed this week. A .500 record in this type of set-up would be exceptional.

Ondrej Pavelec (Winnipeg) – After spending two weeks on Death Row, Henrik Lundqvist can now pass that crown over to Ondrej Pavelec as the Jets’ three opponents this week are Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Boston. While all three games are at home, the Jets are a bottom-10 team in terms of goal against/game at home this year so look for the pain train to keep rolling for Pavelec owners.

That’s all for this week. Good luck to you in your H2H match-ups this week and as always you can reach me on Twitter @SlimCliffy for your fantasy hockey questions.

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Michael Clifford
Michael Clifford was born and raised in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada and is a graduate of the Unviersity of New Brunswick. He writes about fantasy hockey and baseball for XNSports and FantasyTrade411.com. He can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy for any fantasy hockey questions. !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');