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Vincent Lecavalier, Daniel Alfredsson, Michael Ryder and Mike Ribeiro are among the veterans that found themselves a new home during Free Agent Frenzy. Each of these players brings a unique aspect to their new found home but it doesn’t necessarily mean that this will be a boost to their fantasy hockey value for the upcoming season.
C – Vincent Lecavalier – Philadelphia Flyers
In a move that seemed a bit curious for a team that finished tied for 8th-worst in goals against last year and 11th worst the year before, they spent a good chunk of their free cap space tying up an aging centre in Vincent Lecavalier, who was also just bought out of his previous contract.
There was a reason Lecavalier was bought out by Tampa Bay, he’s not the player he used to be. Remember, this is a guy who scored 92 goals from 2006-2008 and won the Rocket Richard trophy for being the NHL’s top goal scorer in 2006-2007 with 52 goals. He’s not that player anymore. That season, Lecavalier set a career high for shots/game at 4.13, a number that has declined every season since, falling to 2.21 this past season. His 30-goal days are a thing of the past and we should temper our expectations to the 20 goal neighbourhood.
It doesn’t mean Lecavalier can’t be a productive player; he finished third among regular TB forwards in assists/60 minutes (5 on 5) in 2011-2012 and then led the team in that category this year. You might think he’s just getting a bit lucky with good line-mates, but he also led the Lightning this year in FirstA/60 minutes (5 on 5), which is the rate of first assists, a fairly accurate way to judge if a player is setting up the play (first assists) or is perhaps incidental to it (second assists).
He’s going to an offensive team, will have line-mates to pass to, he still shoots at a reasonably high rate (his 3-year shot rate would give him over 200 shots per season) and he takes penalties. The only concern will be plus/minus, as he’s going to a middling possession team. I really like his fantasy prospects this year, however, and should command a 7th-9th round pick.
RW – Daniel Alfredsson – Detroit Red Wings
There is a long story here with Alfredsson with regards to his contract decision in leaving the only franchise he’s played for, starting with how he played perennially with lower-than-market contracts to help his team surround him with talent. All of that aside, he’s now a Detroit Red Wing and this could be a mixed bag of fantasy performance.
An important aspect of evaluating fantasy hockey players is the talent that surrounds them. This is why Rick Nash was always under-performing as a Columbus Blue Jacket and Pascal Dupuis over-performs playing alongside Sidney Crosby.
Alfredsson’s value next year will be largely dependent on who he finds himself on the ice with at 5 on 5. Detroit coach Mike Babcock already said he’s not planning on using Alfredsson on a line with either Pavel Datsyuk or Henrik Zetterberg. This is a double-edged sword; he will not be playing with Detroit’s top players at even-strength but it will also get him secondary assignments as teams will focus more on the Datsyuk/Zetterberg pairing.
It’s tough what to make of Alfredsson. He turns 41 in December and set a personal millennium-low in goals/game for himself and also had the lowest point/game total of his career this past year. He was playing on a possession team without a lot of offense last year so that certainly plays a factor. However, being such an excellent possession player will allow him to fit in perfectly with this team and I can only assume he’ll be on their first line power-play as well. His plus/minus should be good and he could be a power-play specialist of sorts, so despite his age, he could provide value at the draft table as a 12th+ round pick, if he falls that far.
RW – Michael Ryder – New Jersey
I tweeted this out last week, but it bears repeating; here’s a list of players with at least 35 even-strength goals, at least 10 power-play goals and at least 300 shots over the last two seasons. It’s a very short and very elite list. I’m generally a Ryder guy and it even took me by surprise.
The departure of David Clarkson made it easier for the Devils to take on Ryder as a free agent. The main reason for New Jersey not making the playoffs last year was the third-worst team SH% in the NHL combined with a bottom-third power-play. Adding Ryder, someone who has shot 12.8% for his career, should help this tremendously. It should take a little bit of pressure off of Ilya Kovalchuk, who until Ryder was signed, was pretty much their only serious scoring threat up front.
Ryder is facing a situation very similar to that of Alfredsson; he’s a good possession player going to a good possession team but will likely not be playing on their top line – Ryder and Kovalchuk are both right shots who play the wing. With Travis Zajac, another right shot, being their first line centre, I don’t see the top line all having right-handed shots.
Ryder has found a way to get closer to the net, usually around the 31 ft mark the last few years (discounting his time with Montreal) – which I would attribute to getting smarter as a veteran player – which has helped his shooting percentage the last couple of years. Another player who should see top-unit power-play minutes, I would expect 20+ goals and 20+ power-play points. He usually qualifies for both wings in fantasy hockey, so this is another player who can provide later-round value and someone I would draft ahead of Alfredsson (even though I don’t think it will end up that way).
C – Mike Ribeiro – Phoenix Coyotes
Oh boy. In a move that screams of money-grab, Ribeiro signed a four-year contract to be the top guy in Phoenix, which doesn’t really say a whole lot.
To be fair, Ribeiro has been a very consistent producer over the course of his career; he hasn’t finished with less than 0.62 points/game in any season in over a decade (a number that is an 82-game pace for 50 points). Not only that, but he’s typically known as an assist-man – for good reason, his career assist/point ratio is 0.695 (a 100-point season would mean 70 assists) – but he’s maintained an elite 14.8% shooting efficiency over his career. A lot of this is because he’s learned to play in the soft areas, or holes in the defense where a rebound might pop out or where he can get open for a clean cross-ice pass.
He’s not going into a situation with a whole lot to pass to; Radim Vrbata and Shane Doan are among their best scoring options. He’s also not a very good possession player going to a middle-of-the-pack possession team, meaning his plus/minus will likely suffer this year. But he will play top minutes, both even-strength and power-play, which means he should continue producing. I would say 50 points is his floor with a minimum of 20 power-play points, but he doesn’t shoot a lot (he’s cracked 2 shots/game once in his career) and with the plus/minus issues, he’s a four-category player at best. Because of how well he did this year – playing the bulk of your minutes with Alex Ovechkin will do that – he will get over-drafted this year and people will be disappointed. If he doesn’t fall to at least 8th-10th round range, I’m staying away.
There’s something get excited about with the movement of veterans in terms of value-based drafting; some will get over-drafted (Ribeiro) and some will get under-drafted (Ryder) which provides you with an opportunity to get a leg up on your competition. Keep in mind; a 48-game schedule is about half of a good sample size, so don’t read into last year with too much faith. This is why a lot of what I used here are at least two-year sample sizes. Keep it locked to SJN for more fantasy hockey analysis upcoming.
