We have reached the apex of the 2013 NHL Playoffs; the Stanley Cup Finals. It seems like it was just yesterday I was going on near-daily rants on Twitter about how childish and selfish the NHL lockout was. How else was I supposed to live vicariously through other adults? Well the time is now here and we are just a handful of hours away from puck drop from a clash of two Original Six teams.
There are several ways to look at this match-up: Will Chicago goalie Corey Crawford be able to hold up his stellar play like he has for most of the season? Will Boston’s dormant sniper Tyler Seguin be able to find the back of the net with any consistency? Will Jonathan Toews be able to lead the Blackhawks through his on-ice play and not get frustrated as has happened a few times these playoffs? Can Patrice Bergeron cement himself as probably the second-best two-way forward in the NHL (I give the mantle to Detroit’s Pavel Datsyuk)?
Just about any way you look at it, this is a fairly even match-up from top-to-bottom. When a match-up is this close on paper, you look for any small difference that could make a difference in a single game and by extension, the series. Let’s take a look at these small differences.
Boston’s Goaltending
What Tuukka Rask has been able to do is historical. Last year, Jonathan Quick set an NHL record for overall save percentage by a goaltender at .946 (minimum 15 starts). As of today, Rask is fourth on that all-time list with a .943 SV%. How has he been able to be so good?
Plain and simple, Rask is one of the best goalies on the planet; Rask’s career save percentage in the regular season (138 games) is .927. For comparative purposes, the fourth-best SV% in the NHL in this year’s regular season was .927 (Cory Schneider). It’s not like he’s been able to cruise through these playoffs either; Boston is allowing 32.9 shots against/game, over four shots more on a per game basis than the regular season. From my observations, he’s been able to control rebounds and never really get caught out of position too far. It certainly helps when Zdeno Chara is clearing the front of the net, but what Rask is doing is other-worldly; he’s allowed one goal or less in six of his last seven games.
Chicago’s Depth Players
One of the big reasons I thought the Los Angeles Kings would beat Chicago in the Western Conference Finals was I didn’t expect Chicago’s depth players to keep up the production that they had in the first two rounds. Was I ever wrong:
- Forward Bryan Bickell, who had nine goals in the regular season, has eight so far in the playoffs, including three goals and four assists in five games against the Kings.
- Forward Michal Handzus had one goal and two assists in the series against L.A.
- Defenseman Nik Hjalmarsson (pronounced: Chal-Marsson) had two assists in game four, including being in on the game-tying goal at the end of the second period.
When depth players start producing at a rate like this, you have to start keying on them just a little bit. There’s an old adage (cliché) in sports, “you don’t let their best players beat you.” But when their lesser players start beating you, an alteration to your game plan has to be made. The catch-22 is when you start paying more attention to the depth guys, you pay less attention to the stars on the team. This, along with his high skill level, was why Patrick Kane was able to pot a hat-trick in the series-clinching game against the Kings.
To be sure, Boston also has good depth players on their team. But their depth players aren’t making quite the impact that some of Chicago’s players have – Bickell has more goals than all but six players on the Bruins have points so far these playoffs.
Boston’s Power-Play
You look at the surface numbers and Boston’s power-play is 10th in the playoffs at 15.6% efficiency while Chicago’s is 12th at 13.7%. They both have scored seven PP goals and there’s no decided edge in penalties drawn: Chicago is drawing three power-plays a game, Boston 2.81. Not really much of an edge either way, right?
Here’s the thing; Corey Crawford is playing way above his head on the penalty kill.
Last year’s leader in power-play save percentage in the playoffs (min. 10 games played) was Phoenix’s Mike Smith at .941, the year before it was Tampa Bay’s Dwayne Roloson at .939. Small sample sizes can mean inflated numbers, but Crawford’s PPSV% to this point is .967. I wrote in my Western Finals preview that Crawford’s PPSV% would have to regress, and it did; at the start of the series against LA it was .985, now it is .967.
Regardless of how things play out, you can expect for Boston to score a minimum of two power-play goals in this series. However many more they score will be mostly a function of further regression. Whenever you can pretty much guarantee yourself two goals in a Best-Of-Seven series, especially with Tuukka Rask in net, you can bank on at least one win.
Chicago’s Defence
Sure the Bruins have Chara, super-rookie Torey Krug and the ever-reliable Dennis Seidenberg. But you have to give the edge to Chicago.
Four of the top six defensemen in these playoffs with at least 10 games played in terms of On-Ice Corsi – a possession metric of how often a team creates a shot attempt versus how often they allow one when a give player is on the ice – come from Chicago. Not only that, but all of their defensemen are currently sporting a positive On-Ice Corsi.
Boston’s defensemen have been about as good, however, they have had a hard time staying healthy. The Bruins only have three defensemen who have played all their games these playoffs, while Chicago has five and would have six had Duncan Keith not been suspended for a game in the LA series.
To be sure, Chara is one of the most dominant defensemen in the NHL. However, the depth on the blueline for Chicago makes the difference for me, my thoughts on Michal Rozsival aside (I compare his skating to an oil tanker dodging ice floes).
So Who Will Win?
You look for small edges. I give the edge to Rask over Crawford even though Crawford has been about as good in these playoffs. Chicago’s depth up front and on the point looks to be an advantage for them, until you realize that Tyler Seguin has the ability to pop six goals in seven games and Zdeno Chara is one of the best defensemen in the NHL. I give the advantage to Boston’s power-play under the premise that we know that Boston will score two power-play goals. However, that doesn’t mean that Chicago doesn’t score three.
Last year, the Kings absolutely rolled to the finals. This year, Detroit had Chicago down three games to one in the second round, while Boston was facing a 4-1 deficit against Toronto in game seven of the first round with a little over 10 minutes left in the third period. Both teams were on the brink of elimination (and probably should have been eliminated) before the Conference Finals, yet both teams are here playing for the Cup.
If Chicago can get their stars going and Crawford doesn’t implode, Chicago wins this series. If Boston can shut down the stars and get to Crawford, Boston wins. This will be a series of bounces and tight games for which no real statistical edge is given anywhere, at least in my eyes.
Prediction: Chicago in seven.
Read SJN’s 2013 Stanley Cup Finals Preview
