It has been an uncharacteristically quiet offseason for the Bombers as the front office plans to cut the team’s payroll from $211 million last year to less than $190 million by 2014. To do that they allowed Nick Swisher, Rafael Soriano, Raul Ibanez, Andruw Jones, Russell Martin, Freddy Garcia, and Eric Chavez to walk away in free agency. To fill their holes, the Yanks added only Kevin Youkilis, Matt Diaz, Juan Rivera, and Travis Hafner.
As one can imagine, Yankee fans aren’t happy, especially since the team will also be without Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson for a while and other teams like the Dodgers, Angels, and Blue Jays are spending Yankee-like money on top acquisitions. Worse, they could lose both Rodriguez and Granderson, as well as Robinson Cano. A rumor leaked yesterday that the trio could be suspended for 50-games for performance enhancing drugs.
The Yanks have finished first or second in every season but one sine 1993 but with their level of talent trending down and other teams trending up, this could well be the year it all starts to unravel.
2012 Team Rankings:
Wins: 95
Runs: 2nd Overall
Batting Average: 8th Overall
ERA: 12th Overall
WHIP: 10th Overall
Catchers: Chris Stewart, Francisco Cervelli – Grade: D+
Russell Martin isn’t a great catcher but he will be sorely missed in the Bronx this year when Chris Stewart, owner of a .217 career batting average and .583 career OPS over 394 plate appearances for five different teams over six seasons, takes over behind the plate. I can’t imagine him getting 100 starts this year.
Cervelli returns after missing all of last season and has the chance to win the starter job as well. He is a career .271 hitter (.692 career OPS though), whose best season came in 2010 when he batted .271 with 38 RBI, 27 R, and 11 doubles in 317 at-bats which is right around where he should be this season.
First Base: Mark Teixeira, Travis Hafner – Grade: B
Tex had his least productive season in 2012 and missed over 35 games with a calf injury as the 32-year-old first baseman starts to show signs of decline. After putting up a .290 BA, .923 OPS, 35 HR per season, and 114 RBI per season from 2003-2009, he is batting just .252 with a .831 OPS since. His 24 homers and 84 RBI are both career lows, as was his .807 OPS. If he can stay healthy he could still produce around 30-35 HR and 100-110 RBI per season but the average and OPS aren’t coming back.
There was a time when Travis Hafner was a feared hitter with four consecutive 100+ RBI seasons. That time was 2006. Hafner has played just 160 games over the last two seasons and while his .259 BA, .800 OPS, 25 HR, and 91 RBI are all solid for a full season’s work from a 36-year-old DH, good luck getting a full season out of him. He has played more than 94 games just once in his last five seasons and played just 66 last season while dealing with an array of injuries.
Second Base: Robinson Cano, Eduardo Nunez, Jayson Nix – Grade: A+
Cano is entering his contract year and has already established himself as arguably the best second baseman in the league. Over his last three seasons, Cano is batting .311 (.909 OPS) and averaging 30 HR, 107 RBI, 104 R, and 45 doubles per season which is right around where he should be this year. The Yankees will sorely miss him if he has to sit out 50 games for PEDs, leaving Eduardo Nunez as the starting second baseman.
Nunez is likely to be utilized all around the field this season but he is mostly around for his glove and speed than offensive production. Over 448 career at-bats, Nunez is batting .272 (.701 OPS), with 7 HR, 48 RBI, 38 SB, and 23 doubles. Expect him to see close to 100 games this season all over the infield and possibly even outfield.
Nix will also be utilized at a number of positions after playing second, short, third, and outfield for five different teams over five seasons. Last season he batted .243 with four HR, 18 RBI, 24 R, 13 2B, and six SB. He is a career .214 hitter with a career .655 OPS and shouldn’t see more than 75 games or so barring injuries.
Shortstop: Derek Jeter, Eduardo Nunez – Grade: B
Jeter had a huge resurgence in 2012 and despite breaking his ankle in the postseason should be ready to go by Opening Day. Jeter led the league in hits last year with 216 and batted .316 with 15 HR, 58 RBI, 99 R, 32 doubles, and .791 OPS. You have to question how much longer he can play at an elite level but the guy is batting .304 with a .780 OPS since turning 35 so once can assume it’s quite a bit longer though I expect a more reasonable 175-180 hits this year.
Third Base: Kevin Youkilis, Eduardo Nunez, Jayson Nix, Alex Rodriguez – Grade: C-
The Yankees already have an overpaid past-his-prime third baseman but he’s out until at least the All-Star break so they added another named Kevin Youkilis. Back in 2008-2009, Youkilis was putting up .300+ BAs and 90+ RBI annually. Over his last two seasons, he has played just 242 games while batting .246 (.789 OPS though) with 18 HR and 70 RBI per season. He isn’t a bad third baseman, just one that seems to be on a steep decline and the Yanks hope their $12 million investment can stay healthy until their $275 million investment returns.
A-Rod has quickly become the cautionary tale of $275 million deals given to 32-year-olds that have been in the Majors since 1994. From 1996 to 2010, A-Rod batted .305 (.966 OPS) with 41 HR, 121 RBI, 116 R, and 20 SB per season. Over his last two seasons, he’s played just 221 games while putting up a .274 BA, .801 OPS, 17 HR, 60 RBI, and 8 SB per season (and don’t even mention his playoffs numbers). Not only is .270 hitting Rodriguez a massive disappointment, he has become embroiled in the Miami PED clinic scandal and is out until at least July as he recovers from hip surgery. There is a chance A-Rod could never strap on the pinstripes again, according to the New York Daily News.
Outfield: Ichiro Suzuki, Brett Gardner, Juan Rivera, Matt Diaz, Curtis Granderson – Grade: C+
Ichiro is another in a long line of older guys on the decline. After batting .331 from 2001 to 2010, he is batting just .277 since. He did have a bit of a resurgence once traded to the Yankees, batting .322 with 14 steals in 67 games but a .270-.280 hitting Ichiro seems to be what we can expect from the future Hall of Famer in a full season. Something along the lines of .275 BA, .670 OPS, 45 RBI, 80 R, and 25 SB seems about right.
Though he played just 16 games last year, Gardner is only a season removed from his league-leading 49 stolen base season and should play a big role in the Yankee lineup once again. The 29-year-old is a lifetime .266 hitter but has the ability to score over 90 runs, steal over 45 bases, and walk close to 70-80 times so he may be a sleeper in the ever unfolding puzzle that is the Yankees.
With Curtis Granderson out until at least early May, the Yanks will rely on Juan Rivera and Matt Diaz to get them through the early part of the season. Rivera had one pretty well with the Angels with his best season coming in 2009 when he batted .287 with 25 HR, 88 RBI, and 72 R. Over his last three years he is batting just .252 with a .697 OPS and 12 HR/58 RBI per season which is right around where he should be this year.
Diaz is yet another 35-year-old on a steep decline, batting just .250 over his last three seasons after putting up a .316 BA from 2006-2009. Last season he played just 51 games for the Braves and batted a mere .222 and since he’s always just been a singles hitter he frankly appears to be on his way out of the league unless he can bounce back in a big way early on.
Granderson is entering the final year of his contract and while his production has been good he’s going to need to improve his .232 BA and .811 OPS if he hopes to land a big deal. Despite the low average last season, he is averaging 42 HR, 112 RBI, 119 R, and 18 SB per season over his last two years and should have close to 90 RBI this year if he returns at full speed from his forearm fracture. At the same time, he may find a 50-game PED suspension waiting for him once he returns, meaning he could miss more games than expected.
Starting Rotation: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettite, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, David Phelps – Grade: B
Sabathia made 28 starts last season and still pitched 200 innings. He has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the league going back to 2006 and has not shown any sign of decline. Since 2006, CC is averaging 17-8 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, a 4:1 SO/BB ratio, and 227 IP. Last season he went 15-6 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and should be around there again this season but with a few more wins.
Kuroda is one of the best and most underrated Japanese pitchers to ever play the game, likely hurt by his poor win total in Los Angeles. In five seasons since coming over to the states, Kuroda hasn’t put up an ERA higher than 3.76 or WHIP higher than 1.21. In his career he has a 3.42 ERA (3.32 in 2012), 1.18 WHIP (1.17 in 2012), and better than a 3:1 SO/BB ratio which is right around where he should be this year once again.
A lot of people doubted Pettitte’s ability to come back at 40 but despite a broken ankle that kept him out over two months he put up a stellar season going 5-4 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and nearly beat his career best with 8.2 SO/9. I doubt he can stay healthy a full season but he has only gotten better with age, putting up a 3.13 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 2010 and 2012.
Hughes enters his final arbitration season and no one really knows how much he is worth. On one hand, he put up a solid 4.23 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 2012. On the other hand, he gave up 1.6 HR/9 while bouncing back from a rough 2011 season in which he went 5-5 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. If he is healthy, he should win 15+ games with a sub-4.50 ERA and a WHIP around 1.25.
Nova is another pitcher no one is sure about and he will have to earn his fifth starter spot in Spring Training. Nova took a step back in 2012, going 12-8 with a 5.02 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 1.5 HR/9 after going 16-4 with a 3.70 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 0.7 HR/9 in 2011. He has great stuff but he’ll need to keep the ball in the park after his home run allowed total more than doubled from 13 to 28.
Phelps has a shot at the fifth starter job as well after a very good rookie showing in 2012. The 25-year-old went 4-4 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 11 starts and 22 relief outings. Over just his 11 starts, the numbers aren’t as good but solid as he went 2-2 with a 3.77 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .713 OPS against. I think he will start out in the pen but get to start plenty of games due to inevitable injuries.
Bullpen: Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain, David Aardsma – Grade: B
If any 43-year-old closer can return from a torn ACL it’s Mariano. Rivera has 82 saves, a 1.87 ERA, and 0.87 WHIP since turning 40 and I can’t imagine a scenario in which he is not dominating batters in the ninth once again this year.
Robertson has established himself as an excellent set up man though his 2.67 ERA and 1.17 WHIP last year aren’t quite the ridiculous 1.08 ERA and 1.13 WHIP he put up in 2011. Nonetheless, the Yanks once again have an excellent 8-9 inning combo.
Logan is a solid lefty who owns a 3.42 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in three seasons with the Yankees and should remain a mid-3.00 ERA guy.
Chamberlain played just 22 games last season after a trampoline knocked him out of commission for most of the year. He has played just 49 games over the last two seasons but has a solid 3.47 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over that time.
Aardsma has Joba beat, having played just one game in the last two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2011. Prior to his injury, Aardsma had put up 69 saves, a 2.90 ERA, and 1.17 WHIP in two seasons with the Mariners.
Team Grade: B
Fearless Prediction: 89-73, 3rd in AL East
