NFL players are breaking at an alarming rate. While running back injuries have been well-documented, tight end injuries have been equally as pervasive this season. Though six games, Jimmy Graham, Tyler Eifert, Jordan Reed, Jordan Cameron, Dennis Pitta, Vernon Davis, Kyle Rudolph, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Marcedes Lewis have left games with a variety of maladies. Others such as Charles Clay and Greg Olsen are clearly operating at less than 100-percent health. Indeed, most fantasy owners have already had to scramble to fill voids at tight end in 2014.
Dennis Pitta and Kyle Rudolph are the most devastating examples of the NFL’s tight end fragility problem, leaving fantasy gamers desperate for replacement tight ends and weekly streamers to offset the losses at the position. Here are three top tight end backfill candidates.
Jace Amaro
Through three games, Jace Amaro looked like just another John Idzik 2014 draft bust. But a funny thing happened a few weeks ago… Amaro started to put it together.
Amaro reception evolution:
Week 1: 2
Week 2: 1
Week 3: 3
Week 4: 5
Week 5: 3
Week 6: 10
In week 6, Amaro led the Jets in week 6 with 10 receptions on a team-high 12 targets while posting a 83.3-percent catch rate. Amaro’s week 6 output was fueled by a staggering 38.7-percent target rate per route, Travis Kelcean per-pass play usage. Here is a list of NFL tight ends who led their respective teams in receptions on any given week:
Jimmy Graham
Rob Gronkowski
Greg Olsen
Antonio Gates
Jordan Reed
Martellus Bennett
Jordan Cameron
Travis Kelce
Larry Donnell
Jared Cook
Delanie Walker
Heath Miller
Niles Paul
Good company. While Jace Amaro’s 10-reception week 6 breakout was a sudden leap in productivity, Amaro’s snap share has methodically increased throughout the season:
Week 1: 30.5-percent
Week 2: 30.9-percent
Week 3: 32.0-percent
Week 4: 35.3-percent
Week 5: 41.7-percent
Week 6: 57.1-percent
Amaro’s continually increasing snap share suggests that his offensive role will continue to grow as the season progresses. This is usage trend is not surprising — it’s just how many talented rookie tight ends evolve.
Jace Amaro’s on-field talent is demonstrated by his second round draft pedigree and 23.2-percent (69th percentile) College Dominator Rating at Texas Tech. His PlayerProfiler.com workout metrics, on the other hand, lack explosive fireworks:
40-time: 4.74 (52nd percentile)
Burst Score: 116.8 (41st percentile)
Agility Score: 11.72 (27th percentile)
Yet, Jaco Amaro’s athleticism is greater than the sum of its parts. His Athleticism Score is actually 102.5 (77th percentile), because PlayerProfiler weights tight end athleticism according to the player’s height and weight. At 6-foot-5, 265-pounds with 34-inch arms, Amaro is a physically impressive.
As weeks tick by, rookie tight ends often feel less overwhelmed with their wide variety of assignments. The game slows down, and they become more instinctual, leveraging their athleticism, and lowering drops and converting more contested catches. Jace Amaro’s above-average athleticism, rapidly improving efficiency and significantly increasing usage suggests he could break into the TE1 conversation during the second half of the season.
Clay Harbor
Since Blake Bortles was named the Jacksonville Jaguars’ starting quarterback, Clay Harbor has led the Jaguars in receiving yards. Perhaps surprisingly, Harbor has the athletic profile to be one of Bortles’ go-to receivers. An explosive athlete with a 4th-round draft pedigree, Harbor’s measurables on PlayerProfiler.com represent the ideal NFL move tight end:
40-time: 4.69 (66th percentile)
Burst Score: 130.0 (91st percentile)
Agility Score: 11.48 (64th percentile)
Rookie quarterbacks are typically a step slow with their progression reads. Aaron Rodgers has no problem parsing his downfield receivers on-the-fly and zipping the ball out to his third option, Davante Adams, if and when Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are covered. The game moves faster for rookie quarterbacks. Rather than asking Blake Bortles to choose between three downfield options, he is likely presented with a simpler read sequence. If downfield option A (Allen Robinson) or B (Cecil Shorts) is not available, immediately check it down to Clay Harbor, who has both the lateral agility to get open in close spaces and the burst to get upfield. His yards-after-the-catch (YAC) ability was demonstrated in week 6 when he turned a reception over the middle into a 59-yard catch-and-run highlight.
Only a handful of tight ends can tout Clay Harbor’s target share in recent weeks, and even fewer can match his athletic profile. As the season progresses and more tight ends are lost to injury, Harbor’s major role in the passing game and playmaking ability will continue to push him up the fantasy tight end rankings.
Josh Hill
Jimmy Graham is expected to miss week 7 with a shoulder injury, though Sean Payton recently expressed optimism that Graham would suit up. Regardless, Graham is a foundation element of the Saints’ offense, and whether he is limited or inactive, the Saints cannot re-write their playbook at this point in the season. Therefore, Josh Hill will run the majority of his routes from the slot. Fortunately, Hill’s measurables on PlayerProfiler.com suggest that he can excel as a system-featured move tight end:
40-time: 4.71 (60th percentile)
Burst Score: 127.4 (86th percentile)
Agility Score: (11.19 percentile)
Athleticism: 101.6 (65th percentile)
Hill’s is profile is most comparable to Tyler Eifert, who a daring XN Sports writer once compared to Jimmy Graham (with a straight face).
Beyond the strong prospect profile, Josh Hill has shown tremendous growth as a well-rounded football player. Through five games he has a positive grade on Pro Football Focus as both a pass catcher and a blocker. With Jimmy Graham in the line-up, Hill has been playing on approximately 20-percent of the Saints’ snaps, and Drew Brees has already favored Hill in the red zone, evidenced by his two touchdowns in the last three games.
This week, the Saints play the Detroit Lions, indisputably the league’s best overall defense. However, the Lions are merely average at defending the tight end position. Because Josh Hill’s match-up is not as difficult as Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks, and Kenny Stills, expect Hill to garner a high target share and multiple red zone opportunities. A confluence of factors, from Hill’s athletic ability to Graham’s shoulder injury to the impending match-up, has thrusted Hill into the top-20 fantasy tight ends for week 7, making him an ideal tight end streamer candidate.
The tight end position is fragile, but it’s also as deep as ever. Jace Amaro, Clay Harbor, and Josh Hill are three talented tight ends with an opportunity to be fantasy relevant this week and beyond.
