The 12-team playoff system means that 37.5 percent of NFL teams make it the postseason. Of course, that leaves 62.5 percent of the league — or 20 teams — on the outside looking in.
Every year, there are talented teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Arizona Cardinals that have the potential to make some noise in the playoffs, but are just a win or poor divisional record shy of making it to the big dance. And every year, there are teams from the year prior that may have been picking in the top 10, then come back to surprise us.
This year there is no shortage of teams that were non-contenders in 2013 that are grabbing our attention in 2014. Here are four teams that didn’t make the playoffs a year ago, but are destined to be playing in January this season, as well the “close but no cigar” teams.
1. New York Giants
The Giants have been one of the more pleasant surprises in the first quarter of the NFL season, especially considering the disastrous start they got off on Monday Night Football against the Lions.
Since then, though, the Giants have been playing lights out. The much-maligned Eli Manning has been especially solid in the West Coast offense, completing 69 percent of his passes with a touchdown to interception ratio of 10:3. The newly assembled backfield tandem of Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams have found plenty of running lanes behind a rebuilt offensive line, and the receiving corps seems to be an upgrade over last season’s thanks to the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr. and tight end Larry Donnell.
On defense, Jason Pierre-Paul in anchoring a more effective Giants pass rush that has lacked in recent seasons. The Giants have totaled eight interceptions and 10.0 sacks, which ranks first and 15th in the league, respectively.
The Giants have to contend with the reigning champions in Philadelphia and an upstart Dallas club, but this team has a more superior all-around game than both of those teams. They’re destined to re-take the NFC East crown.
2. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals were arguably the most talented team not to make the postseason in 2013, but I think it’s them — not San Francisco — who will be the second team from the NFC West to make the dance this year.
Bruce Arians is making a case to be a top-five coach in the NFL, and after getting by a few games with Drew Stanton under center, Carson Palmer should return just in the nick of time to help the team go on a run. With Palmer back along with Andre Ellington, Michael Floyd and John Brown, the offense can be especially dangerous.
Defensively, the unit has already masked the losses of Darnell Dockett and Daryl Washington, but the major question mark is whether the loss of Calais Campbell will finally be the breaking point. Patrick Peterson hasn’t played up to his All-Pro resume so far this season, so there’s a chance the secondary could get even better.
3. Dallas Cowboys
The 4-1 Cowboys are on pace to make the playoffs; statistics suggest as much. Teams with a 4-1 record make the playoffs 77 percent of the time, and there’s no reason to believe Dallas will be the exception.
Tony Romo has been a glorified game-manager, and has thrived in that role. DeMarco Murray has a clear-cut lead on the rushing title, and so long as his elite offensive line continues its stellar play, there’s no reason to believe this offense will take any steps back.
Defense will be this team’s pitfall, but the bright spot is the division they play in. Neither Washington or Philadelphia own strong defenses, so they are in as good of a position to be on par or better with those clubs with their unit. And to this point, the defense has played well enough to win four games.
4. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are coming off a close loss to the Colts, the likely winners of the AFC South, but have shown they have enough talent on the roster to make it to the postseason.
The three-prong running back committee has helped recreate a running game, and the emergence of Steve Smith has sparked the passing game. If Torrey Smith and Owen Daniels can become bigger difference-makers, this offense has room to grow. Plus, Eugene Monroe will eventually return to solidify the offensive line.
Defensively, there are key cogs that need to begin to play up to the back of their playing cards. Terrell Suggs has mustered half a sack, and that’s devastating what should be a very formidable pass rush. Generating more pressure should create more turnover opportunities for the Ravens’ secondary. Both of those statistical categories are lacking, and subsequently hurting the D.
Outside looking in:
5. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons’ offense is as good as any unit in the league, but the defense is equally as horrible. The front four cannot generate any form of a pass rush, and the ravished linebacking corps is allowing opponents to run all over them. The Falcons’ best shot at making the dance is outscoring their opponents in shootouts. Because they play in the NFC South, they do still have a slight chance depending on how they fare against the likes of Carolina and New Orleans.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
The always a bridesmaid, never a bride theory comes into effect a second year in a row for these Steelers, who have consistently played up or down to their opponents. Losing to the Buccaneers and going toe-to-toe with the Jaguars for a half last week is not the sign of a playoff team. But with Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown on offense, and eventually a healthy Ryan Shazier, Jarvis Jones and Ike Taylor returning on the defensive side of the ball, the Steelers may be destined for a late-season run.
7. Buffalo Bills
We all want to believe in the Bills, right? But with Kyle Orton, you still cannot ignore the issue the team will have under center the rest of the year. This team is loaded with talent, and that’s how they got by the Lions last week. The defense is playing outstanding under new coordinator Jim Schwartz, but their destiny will be contingent on whether the Patriots will be a force or not. If the Patriots play like they did through the first four weeks, the Bills should be considered legit. If they play like they did against Cincinnati, count Buffalo out.
8. Houston Texans
The Texans face a major test against the reigning division champs Thursday night, which may determine their postseason fate later on in the year. The Texans own as strong of a defense as there is in the AFC, but like the Bills, quarterback play is a hindrance. Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well, at times, but he’s not going to win games like a Philip Rivers or a Peyton Manning will. His limited abilities will likely be the difference between an AFC South crown or an early trip home.
9. Detroit Lions
Oh, the Lions. Like Pittsburgh, the Lions are proving to be difficult to get a gauge on.They embarrass the Giants then muster seven points against Carolina. They knock off the Packers then fall to the Bills. This team needs a healthy Calvin Johnson to be their difference-maker. Injuries are also impacting the backfield, where Joique Bell and Theo Riddick have been sidelined. Despite the improvements on defense, this is an offense-driven squad. They need their stalwarts.
