Players will skyrocket and plummet up and down and all around fantasy football draft boards over the next few months, but that shouldn’t preclude us from identifying opportunities to vacuum value out of every crevice of 2014 drafts.
Finding the most undervalued wide receivers this early in the football year calendar might seem premature, at best, though you’d have a tough time telling that to fantasy owners who pinpointed Josh Gordon (WR35), Justin Blackmon (WR42), Michael Floyd (WR45), and Alshon Jeffery (WR51) as preeminent values in 2013.
I’ve already highlighted wide receivers who could vastly outperform their 2014 average draft positions (ADPs), using fantasy equity scores, which quantify the gap between where a receiver is being drafted and where he could finish among receivers in 2014.
Equity scores are nothing but a simple, if not imprecise, measure of fantasy value.
Read more about fantasy equity scores in 2014…
A comprehensive list of wide receiver equity scores
Equity scores for elite wide receivers
Equity scores for Brandon Marshall and Wes Welker
Perusing the list of high and median equity scores for the top-60 wide receivers has its place, but quantifying each players’ value is probably a more informative exercise. Thanks goes to fellow fantasy scribe TJ Hernandez, who broke down equity scores to show the widest discrepancies between current ADPs and projected season-long scoring.
The below chart is based on median equity scores, since, their very definition, median prospects are more realistic than high projections. (We’d do well to remember that high projections matter most for wide receivers we can snag in the latest rounds of a draft. If they don’t hit those high scores, it’s hardly a loss for owners who took a chance on them).
A refresher: Golden Tate‘s median equity score, for example, sits at 19. That means that if he hits his median projection, he’ll finish at or around WR31 on the season. Think of Tate being available (right now) for a 61 percent discount.
| Player | Current ADP | Median equity score | Median relative equity value |
| Josh Gordon | WR3 | 2 | 200% |
| Anquan Boldin | WR46 | 23 | 100% |
| Brian Hartline | WR57 | 27 | 90% |
| Julian Edelman | WR32 | 13 | 68% |
| Golden Tate | WR50 | 19 | 61% |
| James Jones | WR63 | 21 | 50% |
| Greg Jennings | WR58 | 19 | 49% |
| Reggie Wayne | WR43 | 14 | 48% |
| Jarrett Boykin | WR47 | 14 | 42% |
| Marvin Jones | WR45 | 13 | 41% |
| Aaron Dobson | WR52 | 15 | 41% |
| Andre Johnson | WR21 | 6 | 41% |
| Wes Welker | WR30 | 8 | 36% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | WR49 | 13 | 36% |
- The most likely ADP risers on this list: Andre Johnson, Sanders, Welker, and Wayne, due mostly to familiarity of these players among casual fantasy owners. I think Sanders has a chance of seeing one of the summer’s steepest ADP jumps. He could make it into the first 25 receivers off the draft board by August.
- Boykin’s presence on this list of median equity score all-stars shouldn’t shock anyone. He’ll take over in Green Bay as Aaron Rodgers‘ No. 3 wide receiver, a role that served James Jones well during his time with the Packers. At 6’2″ and 219 pounds, Boykin seems like a legit red zone threat in a potent offense. Head coach Mike McCarthy had offered lavish praise for the 24-year-old Boykin, recently calling him a “heck of a player” who could become a key cog in one of the NFL’s best passing offenses. Boykin’s high equity score would be him firmly inside the top-20 receivers.
- Marvin Jones’ 2013 totals are a statistical aberration, artificially enhanced by an unholy Week 9 performance in which Jones scored a touchdown seemingly every time he ran a damn pass route. He projects to be the official No. 2 receiver for the Bengals this year, so perhaps a little consistency is right around the corner. I don’t think there’s any question that Jones will shape up to be a low-risk value play in 2014, even if a little summertime hype comes his way.
