Fantasy Football: 2013 Running Back Review – Touchdown Effect

Continuing our tour of the best and worst performances from 2013, we’re wrapping up running backs by looking at touchdown performances. Before we dive into actual touchdowns, however, let’s take a look at which backs were the best when their touchdowns are stripped away.  By removing all points generated from touchdowns, we can get a feel for which backs were uber consistent and efficient with the touches they were given from a fake football stance. We’re going to use standard scoring here for our base as well, since we want a level playing field. If we aren’t going to give weight to touchdowns then we aren’t going to weight receptions, either.

Read more about the 2013 Fantasy Season in Review

Wide Receiver Review – The Target Multiplier

Wide Receiver Review – The Red Zone

Wide Receiver Review – Hallow Routes

Running Back Review – FPPRR

Running Back Review – Rushing Production

Non- Touchdown Points Per Touch 

 *Min 100 touches

Charles, McCoy, Forte and Moreno combined to score 55 touchdowns, so seeing all of them here stripped away from those scores shows how being efficient and then tacking on a ton of trips into the end zone really makes a powerhouse performer.

For the third consecutive post in efficiency, Brown accompanies some of the best names. I’ll probably be taking a lot of fliers on him if his price tag comes after the seventh or eighth round and he signs in a location where he’s in line for a decent time share. Brown will be 27 next season, but only has 686 career touches through five seasons. If he can find his way to 150 touches per season, color me intrigued in him as a backup option.

Throughout the reviews, it appears Murray is going to be the best buy headed into 2014, but I’m willing to wager that we push him into the late first round or early second before August comes around. He was as good as Charles per handoff last season, is already a good receiver that gains the FPPRR power of Scott Linehan this season and will be younger than the backs ahead of him. Those who fear the risk of his injuries could keep his cost down, but he’s a back I can already commit to wanting to buy next year if myself and his believers don’t inflate too high.

 *Min 100 touches

More of the usual suspects from an inefficiency standpoint show up here that have been showing up through each area we’ve already covered. The interesting name that appears near the bottom here is Zac Stacy. There’s already early whispers that the Rams could add a receiving back into the fold, and if you followed our FPPRR post, backs relegated to a rushing down only role become really suspect to bunk weeks when negative game flow is involved. It’s likely you’ll have to draft him as your RB1 at the expense of leaving higher ceiling players at other positions on the board, so none of this news is encouraging.

I was one of the biggest Martin supporters over last summer, but that’s not bringing me back to buying in 2014. The more I explore his situation from an efficiency perspective (even from ’12) in rushing and receiving, the more and more red flags keep creeping into the equation. New offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford has already dropped hints that he plans to use a combination of players in the backfield this season as well, throwing more water on the fire that Martin may never be the fantasy beast we once envisioned.

Short Yardage Touchdowns

Now let’s look at some touchdowns, the lifeblood of the fantasy running back. Backs aren’t constantly breaking off long runs that make the entire red zone worth looking at, so we’re scaling down carries to inside the five-yard line and seeing who made the most and least of those attempts.

*Min 8 Att.

If you go back to the two charts in non-touchdown efficiency, you can see why playing fantasy football can be frustrating. While Gio Bernard and Andre Ellington were among the best in non-touchdown points per touch and their teammates were among the worst, you can totally see why their roles on the real football field exist.

Mendenhall and Green-Ellis were amongst the most effective in turning their short carries into scores for their real teams. Bernard converted three of eight carries for scores, while Ellington only had three such carries and he failed to score on any (in fact he lost yards on two of them). Both younger and more enticing options will likely cost you a fair amount of draft equity to acquire, but be warned that their ceiling could be capped by their bulldozing buddies for good reason. To a lesser extent, the same goes for Reggie Bush, who had only six such attempts (converting two) compared to Bell’s 12.

The Vikings only ran the ball 13 times as a team inside the five this season, second fewest behind Tampa Bay (10 attempts) this season. Peterson will likely be the cheapest he’s ever been in his career next season outside of coming off of the torn ACL and could get rejuvenation under Norv Turner. He won’t be a slam dunk easy buy, though. He’ll be 29 next season with over 2,200 career touches and has played 16 games only once over the past four seasons.

*Min 8 Att.

I’ve already expressed my feelings on free agent Donald Brown, and they are the exact opposite for fellow free agent Ben Tate. Tate posted one top 12 scoring week in seven starts for the injured Arian Foster, scoring three of his four touchdowns in one game. He also was the worst running back in terms of fumbling percentage (2.8 percent), putting five of his 181 carries on the ground. It feels like owners have been waiting for years for the combine freak to finally be freed, but he’s probably going to be a massive reach come 2014 unless he runs into immense volume.

Ball will get the Manning inflation if he’s indeed the starter, but out of all of the efficiency metrics, expecting a 2013 Moreno-esque campaign is likely far too lofty. I see no reason why he won’t finish as a legit low end RB1 however if he’s indeed the lead dog in the Denver Iditarod. If he gets the same amount of red zone volume as Moreno had, though, you can live with any slight shortcoming for what will be a late second or third round pick.

That volume is what carried Bell and Lynch to big touchdown totals, which is what we care about those rarer backs that aren’t involved in a true timeshare. Both players were first and second in attempts near the end zone and Bell missed three games to start the season. The Steelers ran the fourth most red zone plays this past season in a year that was considered a failure on many levels. If they improve this season as a team, Bell will be in line for a lot more work in a full season. On the surface, his peripheral statistics look very similar to 2012 Trent Richardson, so I can see many owners shying away next year.

Touchdowns Per Touch

Not all backs are bruisers and are afforded the opportunity to carry the ball near the goal line but do catch the ball exceptionally well, turning those receptions into scores or scoring on longer gains from the ground. The last section here is covering touchdown percentage per touch on the field.

*Min 100 touches

Charles scored 19 times in 15 games this season after scoring 24 times in his first 65 games played. I’m inclined to believe that number falls somewhere in the 10-12 area next season based on his lofty receiving totals and some past history concerning runners of his size, but there’s no denying the amazing force he was during 2013. He will ultimately be a top five back in any format barring any injury, so don’t let me scare you away.

If only Ridley and Blount were one entity, we could all breathe easier going forward. There’s still a chance that Blount could get an offer from someone else to be their thunder in a timeshare, creating a great chance to come back in and buy low on Ridley, who is still only going to be 26 years old next year. Ridley has shown to be an elite scorer, totaling 19 scores over the past two seasons.

*Min 100 touches

Every player on the bottom of this list played for a team that ranked in the bottom ten in red zone opportunities per game except for Richardson and the two Ravens backs. Baltimore was actually 13^th in the league in trips to red zone. Their running game was so anemic this season that it’s extremely hard to gauge exactly who was completely at fault between the line, injuries and poor play by both runners. Rice definitely hasn’t helped himself this week with his off the field activities, but he still has backers looking for a rebound next year.

That wraps up the reviews for runner and receivers this past season. Moving forward, we’ll dig into tight ends by using the target multiplier, per route data and touchdown performances.

*Stats Provided By ProFootballReference.com

Rich Hribar Fantasy Football Analyst

Rich Hribar is a husband, father, sports meteorologist and a slave to statistics. A lifelong sports fan and fantasy gamer. Follow @LordReebs

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