The trade deadline is either fast approaching, or has already passed. It’s now or never for your playoff hopes. This is the fail/safe point. Are you a buyer or seller? There are no guarantees in fantasy. The greatest team in your league is still vulnerable on any given Sunday. Factor in his uncertainty on Monday, Thursday, and Saturday nights, and you’re back in business. Until you’re mathematically eliminated, it’s worth considering every last possibility.
There’s no guarantee the top seed will win it all, but it’s no sure bet you make the postseason either. If you need one or two things to happen to get in, the odds are respectable. Imagine you were to sell your assets and earn a playoff berth nonetheless. Like my good ol’ Uncle Rico said, “Ever wish you could go back?” Maybe you don’t need to throw a football over them mountains after all.
Be realistic, though. If there are four or five or six dominos that all need to fall for you to earn a spot in the dance, that’s not terribly likely. You play to win championships, but you also shouldn’t play with your heart. Weigh your options wisely, and make those calculated decisions that bring home multiple titles.
Buy Jordan Reed
The Redskins took their bye in week five, and began rolling out some new personnel decisions in week six. Tight end Fred Davis was held without a single target in the game at Dallas. In fact, Davis has only three receptions this season, and has not been thrown to since week two in Green Bay. The former second-round pick from 2008 was offered as trade bait before the deadline, albeit unsuccessfully. Davis will be a free agent in the offseason.
Since week six, no tight end in the NFL has been targeted more often than Jordan Reed. During that stretch, the rookie has also amassed the most receptions and first downs at the position. He has 45 receptions for 499 yards and three scores. The 85th overall pick from Florida is currently on track to catch 75 passes from 98.3 targets, for 831.7 yards and five touchdowns.
Reed is the second favorite target for Robert Griffin, III. Only Pierre Garcon has earned more targets (109), receptions (67), and yards (871) on the team this year. Receivers generally take a couple years in the NFL before reaching their potential. Because of a concussion in Sunday’s loss to the Eagles, the 6-foot-3 tight end just held to one catch for 12 yards. Make space on your keeper team for the hottest tight end in football.
Sell Marshawn Lynch
Marshawn Lynch is one of 76 running backs to earn 1,500 carries in their NFL career. Only 35 rushers have surpassed 2,000 carries, including three active players (Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Willis McGahee). 22 have eclipsed 2,500, and just eight have reached 3,000 attempts. Although Lynch is only 26, he has enough wear on the tires to raise an eyebrow. Seattle is filling their backfield with young studs like Robert Turbin and Christine Michael. The odds are stacked against a prolonged future for the skittles-chomping back.
In the history of the league, the prized mark of 1,500 rushing yards has been reached 86 times. The average age of the backs to achieve this is 25 years and 295 days. Lynch will be turning 28 in April, and only 20 times in NFL history has the 1,500 milestone been achieved by someone 28 or older. And that number was accomplished only 11 times by backs of 29 or more years.
The top 250 rushing seasons of all time round out with Ahmad Bradshaw’s 1,235 yard effort from 2010. Of this sample size, just 54 of those 250 occurred at age 28 or older. The average age of the top 250 seasons was 25 years, 291 days.
Lynch has rushed for 1,200 yards twice and 1,500 once. These were his last two seasons with Seattle. He is currently on pace for 1,345.5 yards, which would be the second most in his seven-year career. The best is likely in the rear view for “Beast Mode.” He may have another 1,000 yard season or two up his sleeve, but forward-thinking keeper owners may decide to move on too soon before too late. Emulate the great general managers in sports history, like those who shipped Johnny Damon or Joe Montana before the end.
Hold Nick Foles
Last year’s rookie performance by Nick Foles left a lot to be desired. Starting six games for Andy Reid, the former Arizona Wildcat completed only 60.8 percent of his passes, while throwing six touchdowns and five interceptions. He also accounted for a ghastly eight fumbles in limited action.
But Chip Kelly is the director for the latest episode in Philadelphia, and the new star is Foles. How long ago were we talking about the NFL record set by Peyton Manning for most consecutive touchdown passes to start a season without throwing a pick? Manning tossed for 20 scores before being intercepted by Morris Claiborne in the third quarter of week five. Well, now Foles has thrown 16 touchdowns without throwing one to the opposition, and needs just four more to tie Manning.
Foles also boasts the highest passers’ rating of 2013, at 128.0; Manning is second at 118.3. The single-season record is held by Aaron Rodgers, who earned a 122.5 rating during his NFL MVP campaign of 2011. Foles holds the year’s second-highest QBR at 78.25, for those who understand whatever that means. Manning leads the league in this ESPN-created metric, with 82.79. All this taken into account, it is Nick Foles’ second season. He has started only 11 games, and played in 15. For those who thought the Chip-tempo Offense couldn’t thrive with a pocket passer, think again. Build a franchise around this guy, and for even better results, add a dash of LeSean McCoy to the recipe.
Stats and data courtesy of pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, and spotrac.com.
