As we near the midway point of the fantasy football season, the trade action in the XN Sports League of Champions heated up this week. Chris Blanchard’s The Winter Classics and my Blurred Goal Lines completed a five-player deal built around two of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. I sent Colin Kaepernick, Danny Woodhead, and Andre Ellington to Chris in exchange for Aaron Rodgers and Maurice Jones-Drew. Because we want to give you insight into why we made these deals, both Chris and I have included our thoughts on the trade. Our own Igor Derysh also offers a third-person perspective. Hopefully this can help you with your teams.
CHRIS BLANCHARD
At 2-4, the Winter Classics were in need of a shake-up. So when Tony Consiglio offered me Danny Woodhead and Colin Kaepernick for Aaron Rodgers, I was immediately intrigued.
Though Rodgers has been my most reliable player besides the Seahawks D/ST, it came time to move my first-round pick. I wasn’t entirely on board with Tony’s opening offer, but I saw an opportunity to do some negotiating.
My primary issue with the offer on the table had to do with bye weeks. Rodgers and the Packers sat out back in Week 4. Swapping him out for Kaepernick would likely mean playing Blaine Gabbert again when the 49ers take a breather in week 9, if Gabbert is even back.
Still I badly needed running back help after committing to Maurice Jones-Drew and Stevan Ridley on draft day. With Danny Amendola once again hurt, I tried to push my luck by asking for Antonio Brown in addition to Woodhead and Kaepernick. I threw in a few of my disappointing receivers to try to get it done
After Tony predictably balked at my counter offers, he switched things up by putting Andre Ellington and MJD in play. Having spent weeks trying to find a buyer for MJD, I had finally found a trade partner. In a PPR league this deal would have been irresistible considering Woodhead and Ellington’s pass-catching skills. Even in our .5 PPR league it should give me a huge upgrade at running back, and a high-upside QB option in Kaepernick. With everything to gain and nothing to lose I pulled the trigger.
I still have concerns at QB with Kaepernick and my QB2, Andy Dalton, headed for byes, but I did manage to replace Gabbert with Case Keenum via waivers so things could be worse. Unfortunately Ellington posted just two points in a Thursday loss to Seattle, so I might already be on the losing end of this one, but for now I’ll force myself believe that it was just the result of a tough matchup against my Seahawks D.
TONY CONSIGLIO
As I noted in the League of Champions Draft Recap, I was a bit concerned about my Week 9 quarterback situation. I drafted both Colin Kaepernick and Matthew Stafford knowing that I had two months to figure something out because finding two starting QBs on the waiver wire at that point in the year was going to be tough. And even if I did, they would be of the JV variety and I would quite likely be staring a loss in the face. So I chose to be proactive.
I reached out to Chris because I knew he’d probably be looking to make a move, sitting at 2-4, and I had something he needed: running backs. I initially offered Kaepernick and Danny Woodhead for Aaron Rodgers, but he was concerned he wasn’t getting enough back to warrant him starting Blaine Gabbert a couple times. I might have thought the same thing if I was him. I still think he might have taken the deal if I hadn’t been willing to budge, but I thought I had room to grow.
So, after a couple of other counteroffers that didn’t quite work for either of us, I added my Andre Ellington for his Maurice Jones-Drew to the mix. It’s hard to get excited about either of these players, but it did help the deal get done. Sure, he was shut down by a great Seattle defense on Thursday, but Ellington is trending in the right direction and has upside. MJD, meanwhile is a victim of a terrible Jaguars offense.
I probably lost out a little on this part of the deal, but here’s why I did it: Ellington was my fourth running back and wouldn’t start for me most weeks. He’d be a bye week fill-in, but I have guys like Stevie Johnson and Chris Ogbonnaya who I can use instead. I will need MJD to be my flex behind LeSean McCoy and Giovani Bernard, so it’s not like I am looking for him to be my RB1 or even my RB2. I also thought I’d gamble a bit on the chance the MJD will be traded. Sources have said it’s a possibility and if he goes anywhere else his value will only increase.
So this trade, for me, was really just built around the need for another QB. Even though Rodgers lost a couple receivers, I still like him as an upgrade over Kaep. Woodhead was a nice flex play for me, but I’m still plenty happy with MJD in that spot. In the end, I think this trade will work out well for both Chris and Me. I just hope it works out a little bit better for the Blurred Goal Lines.
IGOR DERYSH
1. Desperation is the best motivator. At this point in the season, Chris knows he needs to do something to crawl out of 11th place and Tony knows Chris needs help. It’s a perfect situation to start trade talks. Take a look at your own league. The teams struggling are usually the ones willing to talk. If you don’t see one, it’s probably your team.
2. Always consider the bye weeks. With two six-team bye weeks coming up, you need to prepare yourself long before, especially in a 2QB league like ours. Chris has two quarterbacks with bye weeks coming up and has to bank on Case Keenum keeping his job while Tony got a top quarterback who has already had his bye. Guys who have already had a bye are just a bit more valuable than those that didn’t, especially if you don’t have much depth.
3. Consider the future, not the past. It’s easy to get down on Kaepernick’s numbers, they’re far from what we expected. But consider the schedule. He’s had to face tough Seahawks, Colts, and Texans defenses, putting up single-digits in those games. On the flip side, he had 30 FPS in Week 1 against the Packers, a respectable 13 FPS against the Rams, and a solid 15 FPS against the Cardinals. Outside of another game against the Seahawks and potentially tough matchups against New Orleans and Carolina, Kaep should have no problem with the rest of this schedule: Titans, Jaguars, Redskins, Rams, Bucs, Falcons, Cardinals.
On the flip side, there are some questions about Rodgers. He put up a combined 59 FPS in his first two weeks but has put up 11, 14, and 16 since. That’s not bad but certainly nothing Kaep can’t match. Add to that the long-term loss of Randall Cobb and a banged up James Jones. Add to that five fairly tough defensive matchups against the Browns, Bears, Lions, Steelers, and Bears again. Suddenly, the downgrade from Kaep to Rodgers doesn’t look quite as drastic.
Kaepernick is a classic buy-low candidate and there are plenty like him. Take a look around your own league and find buy-low candidates who could be worth much more in the future.
