When I construct my fantasy lineups, throughout the DFS sports, two common things end up being my baseline for the path my roster takes. The top value plays and the highest ceiling superstar studs. In this article, I will attempt to attack these two prevalent fantasy focus points in NBA DFS.
I will list the players match up vs position for the last week because that is the most applicable to me, with the enormous amount of turnover in players and rotations from week to week in the NBA. For shooting guards and small forwards I list the DvP as SG,SF because there is a lot of defensive switches on the wings and the teams do not always match up SG vs SG and SF vs SF. For power forwards and centers I list the DvP PF,C so I get a general sense of how difficult a test the opponents front court is as a whole. I actually will use the PF,C DvP to help me for point guard selection as well to see how driving to the hoop will go for the PG, but I will not be listing those DvP’s under each point guard’s section.
After that I like to see how the match up went last time and try to delve a little deeper and figure out what has changed since then and the effects on the game script. I will attempt to provide thoughts on the most convoluted situations, particularly those with moving pieces.
Note: Superior value may arise later in the day with injury news, as well as shifting the best high end options, as it commonly does, but as of being written, these are my favorite plays.
AWAY @ HOME – Total | Line
BKN @ CLE – 210.5 | CLE -14
The Cavalier’s rest night merry go round continues to spin. Logically, one would think Kevin Love would be the one to sit this game out, with Kyrie and LebRon recently being rested. This provides a boost for LeBron and Kyrie, making them elite plays, as if they wern’t already in this top shelf matchup.
Update: Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith are questionable due to illness.
LeBron James benefits most of the Cleveland stars if Kyrie is out and Matthew Dellavedova could be considered a reasonable play, but will not be on my short list. Iman Shumpert gets the biggest boost of the value guys if both are out .
Ceiling:
($6.8K)Kevin Love
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 35 Fpts in 32.9 Mins
I like Kevin Love regardless of Kyrie and J.R. Smith’s status.
Brook Lopez and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are out tonight. Should Thomas Robinson draw the start, play him. He is just so productive with the minutes and should be able to produce even in this tough matchup. Thaddeus Young also receives a boost.
ORL @ IND – 207.5 | DEN -6.5
Ceiling
($8.9K)Paul George
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 33.7 Fpts in 36.1 Mins
CHI @ HOU – 215.5 | HOU -6
Ceiling:
($10.9K)James Harden
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 45 Fpts in 39.8 Mins
($7.7K)Jimmy Butler
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 43.2 Fpts
($6.8K)Dwight Howard
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 23.9 Fpts in 33.7 Mins
DEN @ NO – 209.5 | DEN -6.5
Value:
($4K)Tim Frazier
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 2 games, 13 Fpts, 13.6 Mins
I expect Frazier to be popular tonight in a fast paced game ,with a good matchup, and due to his consistency of meeting value.
($5.6K)Emmanual Mudiay
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game 31.6 Fpts in 33.4 Mins
Mudiay is in a great spot vs the worst defense in the NBA. Although he tends to play better at home, if there were a spot you would want him out of town, this is it. Also, there’s not much downside at this price, because he usually gets you at least 25 Fpts.
LAC @ OKC – 214 | OKC -8.5
Chris Paul, J.J. Redick, and Deandre Jordan will all be resting in this game. This makes Jamal Crawford a must play to me. He is only $4.7K and will have all the usage and minutes he can handle tonight. ($3.5K)Cole Aldrich enters the consideration as a near must play value as well with Deandre’s 30 minutes per night up for grabs, only competing with Jeff Ayres who hasn’t played more than 6 minutes this season. Both Crawford and Aldrich should be blowout proof.
Ceiling:
($10.6K)Russel Westbrook
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 2 games, 55.5 Fpts in 37.1 Mins
($10.6K)Kevin Durant
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 3 games, 52.3 Fpts in 37.8 Mins
Durant makes a great GPP play, along with Westy due to the masses’ perceived guarantee of a blowout.
BOS @ POR – 213.5 | POR -3.5
Ceiling:
($8.3K)Damian Lillard
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 28.8 Fpts in 34 Mins
Today’s roster construction is leaving Damian Lillard on the outside looking in.
Value:
($5.6K)Avery Bradley
This Season vs Opp. Avg.: 1 game, 25.7 Fpts in 30 Mins
Avery Bradley continues to see a boost in usage and FGA whilst Jae Crowder(game time decision tonight) is out and draws an awesome matchup vs C.J. McCollum, who he should be able to pick up a few extra blocks and steals vs due to his high usage.
Just Give Me the Damn Plays
Top Ceiling:
Russel Westbrook
Kevin Durant
Top Value:
Jamal Crawford
Cole Aldrich
Lines as of 10 AM
Featured Image Credit: By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA (Kevin Love) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
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