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Daily Fantasy Basketball: Cheap Advice 12/2/15

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Point Guard

Patrick Beverly ($4100, 15.2 USG) – Beverly will be a very popular value play for anyone punting the point guard position tonight.  His minutes are trending upwards (31.3 mpg over his last 3) and going up against a Pelicans team that gives up 55 DK points per game to opposing PG’s (29th overall).  The Rockets are openly admitting to the world that the Ty Lawson signing has failed.  The Rockets are statistically better off when Lawson doesn’t see the court.  Beverly has been reinserted into the starting lineup after missing much of the season with an ankle injury.

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This is the game you want most exposure to tonight.  Highest over/under at 212 and the Rockets are only favored by 4.  Both teams play terrible defense (NO 30th in DEF EFF, HOU 27th in DEF EFF) making every matchup a great one.  I wouldn’t be opposed to having up to 5 players in this game.  Beverly is a great, cheap start.

I also wouldn’t mind a couple other options like Norris Cole (back from injury) and Cory Joseph (back to back games playing more than 30 min)

Shooting Guard

Jeremy Lamb ($4800, 21.1 USG) – Whenever someone like Al Jefferson gets injured and is expected to be out for a few games, it’s important to see what a loss like that means to the whole team, rather than just the backup that will be getting the bump in minutes.  Lots of people are recommending Kemba and Batum as plays tonight because of this, but no one is mentioned Lamb.  Everyone’s USG rating goes up with Jefferson out . . . even Lamb’s.  He’s playing the most efficient basketball of his young career (19.8 PER) and having career highs in almost every major statistical category.  Also, Jeremy Lin is listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the Warriors, likely bumping up Lamb’s minutes if he were to sit.  If you have any worries about a potential blowout (GS -9), he would be getting some garbage minutes as well. Lots to like here with very little value at the SG position elsewhere.

Small Forward 

Jared Dudley ($3300, 11.9 USG) – The is a layup … especially if Drew Gooden is out tonight.  Nene has already been ruled out and Drew is questionable.  If Gooden sits and Dudley gets the start again against a Lakers team that’s 25th overall in DvP against PF’s (SF eligible on DK), he’s a must play on a night that offers very little value and lots of high priced studs (Wall, Harden, Davis, Blake, Drummond) that you’re going to want to roster.  He doesn’t offer much upside (only scoring 30 DK points once all year) but if he plays 30-33 minutes, he’s got a nice safe floor of about 17 points (he’s a lock to reach value, barring injury).  If his shot is falling, then you’ll be sitting real pretty.

PG13 sits atop the SF position tonight with a hefty price tag north of $10000, Kawhi’s Spurs will likely blow MIL out, Melo isn’t a trustworthy as he’s been in the past and Covington is just way too expensive for me still.  There’s just not a lot I like here honestly even though those are all fine plays if you choose to go there.  But feeling uneasy about the position makes it much easier for me to scroll all the way to the bottom.

Power Forward 

Cody Zeller ($3800, 15.7 USG) – I gotta be honest, I can’t even get fully behind this.  Every time I’ve played Zeller, he’s either done nothing or struggled to reach value but this is how ugly it looks below the $5000 threshold at PF tonight. Most of my favorite plays are slotted here (Davis, Blake, Milsap, Porzingis, Green and Aldridge) so it’s really hard for me to justify going so cheap when I’m dying to roster 3 of these guys.  Zeller will be starting for Al Jefferson for the foreseeable near future.  What he does with that role is anyone’s guess but hey, he’s starting and priced at only $3800.  It’s not the worst idea.

Center

Alen Len ($3300, 17.7 USG) – The most overly used joke last night, “I got Leu’red in”.  Congrats to you if you played Alen Len rather than Leure yesterday.  You likely made some money if you did. I’ll admit it, I was dead wrong.  With the small sample size that we had seen so far, all the research was spot on but the reasoning was totally off.  Leure was the one that was playing more minutes and producing more with Chandler out but as we’ve come to notice now, this is all match up based.  It was the games against New Orleans and Toronto that Leure played more in because of the smaller opposing lineups, but against a bigger offensive threat like Brook Lopez, Jeff Hornacek had to play Len more (much more physical defender).  Well, Tyson Chandler has already been ruled out for tonights game against the Pistons and there’s probably no way in hell you’re going to want to trust Leure to guard Andre Drummond so we should be expecting another Len kind of game.  Now, I wouldn’t expect him to match last nights production (43 DK points) but if he gets over 30 min again, he should easily reach value.  You just gotta hope he stays out of foul trouble trying to contain Drummond.  At only $3300, it’s worth it to see how it plays out.

Featured Image Credit: By Chris Green (Chrisg21090 at en.wikipedia) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

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