Week 6! It’s flying by folks and the viable NFL DFS season will be 37.5% over come Tuesday(unless you are insane and play week 17, I probably will). Are you ready for that? Are you ready to accept that the years end of fantasy football is nearing? Maybe that’s just me thinking like as an obsessor, but it goes so fast you have to treasure every minute and get all the action you can. Hop in and win some money with me.
Vanilla Flavored Chalk(Obvious Plays, Cash Game Eligible)
Player salaries are for DraftKings.
($6,600) Carson Palmer @ PIT– Over/Under: 44.5 Spread: -3 Team Total: 23.75
BOOM! Carson Palmer has been lighting it up, coming into week six the as the fifth highest scoring quarterback in FanDuel points. Now he faces the Pittsburgh “secondary” that has allowed a misleading 257 yards per game, thirteenth worst in the league.
($7,000) Larry Fitzgerald @ PIT – Over/Under: 44.5 Spread -3: Team Total: 23.75
The stack is in play here. Couple Fitz with Palmer for all the money. The reemergence is not done yet, in fact it’s just starting. Larry Fitzgerald had two touchdowns last year. He has six thus far and is the wide receiver___ in fantasy points this season. What would you guess?
Numero Uno. That’s right, a 32 year old is the fantasy wide out champion through five weeks. He has a high floor and ceiling in any match up, but this face off with the Steelers elevates those levels to titanic proportions. Criminally underpriced. I am from the future, come with me if you want to (live) score fantasy points.
($5,700) Andy Dalton @ BUF – Over/Under: 42.5 Spread: -3.5 Team Total: 23
The number one fantasy quarterback this season is the red rifle, Andy Dalton. Well, polish off ole reliable(things have changed) and put him in your lineups with joy. He produced well vs the legion of boom and Seattle, with 331 passing yards and three touchdowns, with one coming on the ground. Dalton has shown he is match up proof and should be in your player pool week to week. This week is an extra plus, with the Bills yielding the fourth most fantasy points on average to the quarterback position. His price doesn’t reflect his performance nor whats to come.
($7,700) DeAndre Hopkins @ JAX – Over/Under: 43 Spread: -1Team Total: 22
DeAndre Hopkins remains the target leader through 5 weeks with 74. He produced well last week with 22.4 fantasy points and has a week winning match up vs the Jacksonville secondary that has deceptive numbers in the passing game due to facing the inept offenses of the Buccaneers, the Matt Hassleback led Colts, the Miami disappointments, and Carolina, the land of no wide outs. Watch Hopkins exceed through the air whether its the Brian Hoyer experience or Ryan Mallet experiment. Many may be off him due to his price increase, pay up for some possible differentiation.
($7,000) Devonta Freeman @ NO – Over/Under: 51 Spread:-3 Team Total: 27
I wouldn’t accept it, and neither would you. One of the most inefficient backs of yesteryear posting a 3.8 yard per carry rate in 2014 is the number one scoring fantasy running back this season. Opportunity is greater than skill at the running back position. This is the new base case. Tevin Coleman has been Alex Smithed. The spread indicates plenty of rushes for Freeman. This is the third highest team total of the week.
($7,600)A.J. Green @ BUF– Over/Under: 42.5 Spread: -3.5 Team Total: 23
The Buffalo Bills have the 9th worst pass defense in yards per game at274 and the 3rd best rushing defense yielding a measly 82.2 yards per game on the ground. What would you do in this kind of match up? Throw the ball. It isn’t rocket science folks. The path of least resistance yields fantasy goodness. That path goes through A.J. Green this week. A stack with Andy Dalton is certainly in play.
($7,600) Adrian Peterson vs KC – Over/Under: 44.5 Spread: -3.5 Team Total: 24
All Day makes his first appearance in the column this season ready to win you some serious cash. Peterson has averaged 18.75 carries per game along with 2.25 receptions totaling 21 touches and should be able to produce handily vs this middling run stopping unit. I think he will go overlooked, coming off of the Vikings bye week and the misconception of the Chiefs being s tough match up, possibly leading to low ownership percentage.
Philip rivers is the QB 4 through week 5 and is finally starting to get some love. Stack him with Antonio Gates in a spot where the spread indicates a game script suggesting voluminous passing attempts for Rivers.
($4600) Antonio Gates vs GB – Over/Under: 50.5 Spread: 10 Team Total:20.25
Antonio looked amazing out of the gates(lord help me), must be his new training regimen that left him suspended for 4 games. Whatever it is, I’m for it! Gates instantly reinserted himself as the lead dog in the San Diego passing game and especially the red zone with two touchdowns in his first game back.
($7,300) Calvin Johnson vs CHI– Over/Under: 43 Spread: -3 Team Total: 23
When will the big game come? He is tied for sixth in targets this year. Isn’t he the same guy? Calvin Johnson has faced Patrick Peterson and Arizona’s skillful secondary, Seattle, Chris Harris and Aqib Talib, the young but strong Minnesota secondary, highlighted by Xavier Rhodes, and San Diego, a top 10 defensive pass unit. Calvin Johnson finally has a decent match up this week vs the Bears, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to wide receivers. This is only a GPP play because of how inept Matt Stafford has been this season. I think he will get the ball down field to Calvin who himself, is in need of a comeback.
($3,700) Broncos Defense @ CLE– Over/Under: 42 Spread: -4.5 Team Total: 23.25
Josh McCown has been playing very strong with three 300 yards passing games in a row. That ends this week. The better, yet less famous McCown will be playing backup by the end of this game. I don’t see anyway he doesn’t turn the ball over at least once this week. The Broncos allow the fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position in the league. Look for Von Miller to sack dance the night away.
Le’Veon bell was dancing all over the San Diego defense Monday night to the tune of 111 yards on the ground and a game winning score, coupled with 4 receptions for 16 yards. San Diego is allowing the fourth most yards on the ground in the league per game at a 130.2 clip. Green Bay boasts the second highest team total of the week.
($7,600)Rob Gronkowski @ Indianapolis– Over/Under: 55 Spread: Team Total: -8
I title this game ‘ A Gronking To Remember’ What..? That name is taken??!? You gotta be kidding me. The Patriots are infamous for beating up on the Colts, with the rivalry being sewn into football history with deflate gate. I’m sure Gronk will have a hankering for some targets after only producing 4 receptions on 5 targets for 67 yards. It will almost be contrarian to play Gronkowski this week due to the expectation of the Patriots leaning on the run as they have in the past vs the Colts. This makes him an Indiana Jones play. I think his ownership will be low this week due to his bad production last week and the explosion of some cheaper tight ends last slate.
($3,300) Willie Snead vs ATL– Over/Under: 51 Spread: Team Total: 3
Brandin Cooks has been supplanted by Mister Snead and is the clear 1A target to an aging Drew Brees. Let Cooks go. He had a big game, but most of his production was accumulated in garbage time. Willie Snead was the guy getting it done most of the game. Snead has earned the snaps and looks and he is getting them. Each week he has become a larger part of the offense and had 11 targets to Cooks 9 corralling 6 for 141 yards. Snead now faces a weak Falcon secondary, whose numbers don’t tell the story due to the pure ineptitude of the offenses they have faced this season(PHI, NYG, DAL, HOU, WAS). You liked last week, that was just the pregame for this weeks coming out party. He is a free space on DraftKings at that price.
($4,000) Charcandrick West @ MIN – Over/Under: 44.5 Spread: 3.5 Team Total:
Don’t waste any time and joyfully thrust Charcandrick West in your lineups for the low low. If this guy has supplanted the best handcuff backup in the universe, Kniles Davis, he’s gotta have something. Jamaal Charles is out for the season with an ACL tear and West is first up to bat. He received 7 carries to Knile’s 2 in Jamaal Charles‘ void week 5. Andy Reid likes to have on back that can do it all and ride him all the way home. Minnesota is a bottom 15 unit in fantasy points allowed and the seventh worst in terms of yards allowed per game.
($6,000)Sam Bradford vs NYG– Over/Under: 50 Spread: -3.5 Team Total: 26.75
Sam Bradford is finally getting it going, yet threw 2 redzone interceptions last game. Oh what his fantasy week could have been. He still put up 19.6 FanDuel points. This is the one. GPP only.
($4,400) LeGarrette Blount @ IND– Over/Under: 55 Spread: -8 Team Total: 31.5
Last year Jonas Grey played the LGB role totaling over 200 yards vs the Colts on the ground. The Colts have allowed the 22nd most fantasy points to running backs. That number does not portray the lack of ability on this run stopping unit. This is the week they are exposed in their regularly scheduled shellacking by the Pats. The Patriots have the highest team total in the league this week. The spread suggests New England will be playing from ahead meaning clock killing mode for the grinder.
($3100)New York Jets vs WSH– Over/Under: 40.5 Spread: -6 Team Total: 23.25
The Jets defense has been incredible, averaging a robust 10.5 fantasy points per game. If that were the line, I would take the over this week. The Redskins will not be able to run the ball as they’d prefer, so they will turn to the turnover prone arm of Kirk cousins, and I’m not talking about triangular fruit-filled crispy treats. Cousins has thrown 2 interceptions in 3 of 5 starts this season. The secondary is no slouch either, boasting the second best pass defense in yards allowed per game at a micro 185.5. I am higher on the Broncos but if you want to squeeze $200 out of another position on Fan Duel or 600 on DraftKings in your lineup this is a great pivot.
Lines from FootballLocks.com
Lines as of 10.13.15