I feel alive. That alive when you quit your day job to pursue your dream. That alive when you are feeling the wind through the door of the plane you are about to jump out of. That alive that is the the white and brown pigskin, coupled with the red, white, and blue, of the NFL shield and America’s flag coursing through my veins. I love it and I am too enthralled to be back in the full swing of football.
My picks last week worked out really well, with most of my players ending up on contest winning rosters, as advertised. Check my work here.
I want to be held accountable. I want it to be known when I fail, when I succeed. Let me know if i provided assistance to a path of a mountain of cash for you or all of your teams busted due to my crappy picks.
I want this article to be a weekly bankroll changer for it’s readers, to the point where they are salivating Tuesday night, in pursuit of the knowledge of what NFL DFS advice will appear in the AM. My picks can always be validated the following week and I will attempt to give a brief review of how it went in the following week’s DFS column. I put an insane amount of time and obsession into these picks and I play all of them in volume personally. I don’t like losing money and I know you don’t either, so let’s stuff some more greenbacks in our pockets this week! Cha-Ching!
Vanilla Flavored Chalk:
($7,100) Tony Romo vs Falcons – Team Total 25.5 Spread: 4.5
This is the one. The highest over/under of the week with the Cowboys as 4.5 dogs. Romo will be slinging the ball all over the field. He looked great last week with 24.14 Fan Duel points on 36 of 45 throws for 356 yards 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions vs the New York Giants, capping off his day with a 4th quarter 2 minute drill game winning drive.
($6,700) Carson Palmer @ CHI – Team Total: 23.8 Spread: 2.5
Palmer carved up the Saint’s, boasting a 25.68 fantasy point outing in the opening week. The Bears’ defense was less than ideal against a diminished Green Bay Packer offense last Sunday. I expect Carson Palmer to have a similar outing to the prior week and feast on a weak Bear’s secondary.
($6,900) Sam Bradford vs DAL – Team Total: 30 Spread: -4.5
He was productive vs the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night with 336 passing yards, albeit only one touchdown and 2 interceptions. Bradford threw a touchdown to Jordan Matthews which was ruled down on the 1 yard line incorrectly and the other two touchdowns were rushed in by DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. This left him with 15.44 fanduel points, but if the game had gone slightly different early on for the Eagles offense, with a few bad penalties and drops occurring, Bradford would have had an immense game. He now travels to Dallas to face a porous Cowboy’s secondary. He may be under owned due to the Giants ineptitude last week through the air vs Dallas, but I think that was due to a New York line issue, and the Eagles have a far better front. The Eagles have the highest team Vegas total of the week.
($7,100) Jordan Matthews vs DAL – Team Total: 30 Spread -4.5
Matthews’ colossal week was deterred this past Monday by a bad call, where he was determined down on 1 yard line, as mentioned before. He still finished with 15.2 points. Matthews’ team has the highest team total of the week and he is the number one option in the passing game. Did you also know the Eagles run more plays than any other team in the league? Of course you did.
($8,300/$7,000) DeMarco Murray – Team Total: 30 Spread -4.5
12 touches scares you away? The game script was negative for rushing and he still came out with 2 touchdowns! He is the red zone back in the weeks highest team total, fire him up with confidence. This Eagles drum I’m relentlessly attacking is going to explode before the seasons end.
($8,900) Julio Jones @ Giants – Team Total: 24.0 Spread: 2.5
The flying Falcon was unstoppable Monday vs the Falcons, tallying 141 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was unstoppable and the offensive focus of the Falcons. Look for this to continue into this week’s match up vs the woeful secondary of the Giants. Julio has a rare high target floor each week and that is coupled with a great match up this week in the highest over/under of the week. BOOM!
($5,900) Mark Ingram vs TB – Team Total 28.8 Spread: -10
Ingram’s involvement without C. J. Spiller in pass game last week vs Arizona was an eye opener. Now he gets to face the league worst defense of Tampa Bay that has football pundits declaring Marcus Mariota as the second coming of Joe Montana. The Bucs’ defense is THAT bad. Eat a lobster dinner my friends with the money you are sure to make with Ingram in your line up.
($4,300) Jason Witten @ PHI – Team Total 25.5 Spread: 4.5
There will be no Dez Bryant for the Cowboys this week so ole reliable becomes the number 1 target in the pass game. Jason Witten is never a sexy pick, but he gets the job done, like a fat girl at the bar. He is in for a lot of targets. Many will look towards Terrance Williams to fill the void, but I prefer Witten. This contest is the highest over/under of the week at 55. Points are on the way and coming fast. Romo-Witten stack is in play this week.
($6,000) Steve Smith @ OAK – Team Total 25.0 Spread: -6.5
Last week was a serious letdown, but that should keep his ownership under 10%. The Denver secondary is extremely talented so we’ll give him a mulligan. He will get a ton of targets and I see his floor as 80 yards and a touchdown in this dream match up, with a ceiling for much more.
($4,700) Chris Ivory @ IND – Team Total 19.8 Spread: 7
You saw it, Ivory has the role and will fill it well. Look for him to build on his 2 touchdown performance last week vs a horrid Colts run defense. If the Indianapolis defense has a strong point, it is the secondary. The Jets will lean on the run like the post that holds up the house. The only thing that could go wrong here is negative game script.
($2,900) Ravens Defense @ OAK – Over/Under: 43.5 Spread: -6.5
2 words: Matt McGloin. Aside from the fact his last name sounds like the new McDonald’s sandwich comprised of private parts, he turns the ball over a ton. McGroin came in after Derek Carr injured his throwing hand. The Raider’s staff is stating he is looking good for week 2 but I am less optimistic. Even if Carr does play the Raven’s defense, without Terrell Suggs, will still be a top shelf play.
($7,000) Brandin Cooks vs TB – Team Total: 28.8 Spread:
Look past Cooks’ slow start to the season to the off tune of 4 receptions 49 yards vs the Cardinals. This defense is far worse everywhere, especially in the secondary. Look for Brandin Cooks to bounce back with a big fantasy outing as the number one option in the passing game to a Drew Brees quarterbacked team.
($8,800)Odell Beckham Jr. vs ATL – Team Total: 26.5 Spread: 2.5
Shake off the slow start. People will be off him due to a bad first game in a good match up. This match up is even better. Beckham was under bracket coverage in the first game and I think he will break free in this one for some big plays. OBJ becomes an Indiana Jones play after a down week. These are the perfect opportunities to roster a contest winner with a high team total and a high volume role in a good match up.
($4,500) Ameer Abdullah @ MIN – Team Total: 20.5 Spread: -3
Carlos Hyde didn’t seem to have any trouble racking up a ton of yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground vs Minnesota. Ameer is getting the Lions share of the carries(see what I did there) and looks electric. He should thrash the Vikings’ defense, moreso if they look as flat as they did Monday. This is an Indiana Jones play due to workload concerns. The spread suggests they will be ahead, which would lead to more rushes.
($6,200)Justin Forsett @ OAK – Team Total: 25.0 Spread: -6.5
Here is another athlete who had a bad first week and is set to explode. I can see him catching a ton of balls out of the backfield, as the primary chain mover for the Ravens. Jeremy Hill rumbled around last week for 68 yards and 2 touchdowns vs them last week. The spread suggests positive game script for rushing work. Forsett will have a massive amount of receptions this week.
Indiana Jones Plays
($7,000/$5,100)Carlos Hyde @ PIT – Team Total 19.3 Spread: 6
A week late, but still on time. He faces the horrid, dysfunctional Steelers defense which yielded a 4.6 yard per carry rate to the miniature Dion Lewis. Hyde had 26 carries and 2 receptions for 182 all purpose yards and 2 touchdowns on Monday. It turns out he will be a true bell cow. The low team total is jarring, but last week the 49ers showed Hyde will receive passing work. With Reggie bush injured, even a negative rushing game script will be fine for Hyde with him being a 3 down back.
($4,500)Tevin Coleman @ NYG – Team Total: 24.0 Spread: 2.5
He was productive vs the Eagles with 20 attempts for 80 yards. Coleman is the number 1 back, but for some reason they still feel the need to trot out Devonta Freeman to sludge around for some plays. If he gets the work this could be big. Second highest over/under of the week at 50.5.
($3,500) Kyle Rudolph vs DET – Team Total: 23.5 Spread: -3.0
I could see him getting a ton of check downs with Teddy Bridgewater under pressure from the fierce defensive Lion’s front. We saw Keenan Allen rack up an absurd 15 catches with Philip Rivers dinking and dunking against Detroit. Rudolph is the go to safety valve for Teddy. I think that Allen performance will be Rudolph this week. He has an 8 target floor with room for much more.
($5,100) Eric Decker @ IND – Team Total: 19.8 Spread 7
Brandon Marshall will be shadow covered by Vontae Davis, leaving Decker to eat away from the shutdown corner. The spread suggests they will playing from behind leading to more passes. Eric Decker functions well the second receiving option on teams, feasting on weaker corners. Low floor, high ceiling.
Vegas Lines as of 9/15
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