1. Seattle Mariners
The Royals’ October run may have been the late-2014 storyline that stole the show, but “Kansas City” could have easily been supplanted by “Seattle.” A 17-10 August record, followed by a 6-2 start in September, entrenched the Mariners in an American League Wild Card chase that came down to a near photo-finish. The third wheel at the dinner-date, the Mariners were politely asked to leave. In reality, their poorly timed five game losing streak in the home stretch was likely the ill-advised catalyst to their early exit.
The comparisons with the Kansas City Royals go far beyond their nearly equivalent records to end the season. After extended periods of losing seasons leading to high draft picks, both franchises have quietly built their organizations back up towards the top of the pack. Kansas City cashed in last year. Now it’s Seattle’s turn.
The same Royals that turned a one-game edge in the 2014 Wild Card standings into an American League pennant gave a similar indication in 2013 that the Mariners are displaying today. Seattle’s 87 wins in 2014 – a 16-game improvement from 2013 – is nearly identical to Kansas City’s 86 wins – a 14-game improvement from 2012 – the year before their run.
Simply put, the stock is rising in Seattle, and the parallels are eye-popping.
Felix Hernandez is a top-notch ace of any pitching staff outside Los Angeles, and he enters 2015 with arguably his deepest staff since entering the league – for context, Hisashi Iwakuma‘s 2014 campaign featured his highest ERA yet, at 3.52. Highly touted prospects Taijuan Walker and James Paxton appear to be poised for possible breakout campaigns, and the addition of Nelson Cruz helps bolster a lineup that already included six-time All-Star Robinson Cano and potential star-in-the-making Kyle Seager.
The Mariners were on the doorstep of the playoffs last season, only to be locked out at the last minute. Improved across the board, Seattle will look to take the next step with its first playoff appearance since 2001. And, as ‘surprise’ teams have proven in the past, once they enter the party, they tend to stick around until the end.
Bonus – St. Louis Cardinals
At this point, it’s almost boring to evaluate the St. Louis Cardinals. Without analyzing off-season moves or mid-season call-ups, the same rough sentence can be uttered seemingly every year, “The Cardinals are good.” There will be no ‘surprises’ if this continues. For that reason, they are merely an addendum to this list.
Over-simplified as it may sound, the extended success of the Cardinals — five playoff appearances in six years, including three straight since losing Albert Pujols to free agency — is what makes them a constant story in baseball circles. The question that should always be asked regarding St. Louis and its ability to churn out winning teams is, “How?”
How can a team lose its top outfield prospect to an off-season tragedy and replace him with someone who might actually be better? How can they continue to find young arms so good that Carlos Martinez has to compete for a spot in the rotation? How can anyone touch Trevor Rosenthal‘s pitches?
How will they not win the National League Central?
For most teams, high expectations yield a higher punishment if failure ensues — see Cubs, Chicago. It has yet to be proven if the same is true for the Cardinals, but that, in itself, speaks volumes. Perhaps the upstart Cubs might tilt the earth off its axis and upset the natural order of the universe, but they will have to go through their bitter rival, first.
Until proven otherwise, St. Louis is the team to beat in its division. By merely defying the odds of regression year in and year out, the Cardinals may take it one step further and somehow find a way to push their ceiling even higher.
