There are basically two things that NHL training camps and preseason games are good for, from the perspective of fantasy hockey:
- Injuries of healthy players
- Determining line combinations
That second part is a pretty important, as it ultimately values players like Radim Vrbata in Vancouver, Beau Bennett in Pittsburgh, and Brandon Saad in Chicago. That first part, though, is a maddening reality of every NHL preseason. This year alone, Claude Giroux is expected to miss the preseason, Jonathan Drouin will miss some regular season action with a fractured thumb, and Pavel Datsyuk is having his shoulder examined after leaving a preseason game following a hit. That last part is particularly troubling for fantasy owners. I’ll get back to that in a minute.
There are three things that need to be explained when it comes to the fantasy hockey value of the man affectionately known as The Wizard.
League settings affect Datsyuk as much as almost any player
I say this to anyone that is getting their feet wet in any fantasy sport, but knowing the league settings is a critical, yet often over-looked, aspect of fantasy.
When it comes to Datsyuk, leagues that include face-off wins (FOW) are leagues that give Datsyuk a big boost. Same goes for leagues that include average time on ice (ATOI). The Wizard has been over 53-percent in the face-off circle for years now, and that can translate to a big edge in a FOW category. He’s also been over 19 minutes per game for several years now, including over 20 minutes each of the last two seasons. Leagues that include one of, or either, of those categories are a big boost to his value.
On the flip side, there are leagues that don’t play to Datsyuk’s strengths. Leagues that include blocked shots and hits are a big hit to his value. That last part is a fairly recent development, too. Forwards typically aren’t sources of blocked shots, so that’s not a big deal. But they can be sources of hits, and Datsyuk, four or five years ago, used to average a hit a game or more. Now, over his last couple of years, that number has dropped to about two hits every three games. That’s a pretty big tumble.
Finally, in points-only leagues, Datsyuk has the upside to be a top-10 player. His point/game pace over the last couple of years, even as he’s aged, is top-10 in the NHL. If he can put together a 75 game season, he has the upside of a top-10 skater in a points-only league.
Injuries are an ongoing concern
It’s just a fact of sports that injuries happen. Trying to predict most of them is a futile process. Remember, though, that the best predictor of a future injury is a previous injury. In that sense, the recent history for Datsyuk is concerning:
- Datsyuk’s 2010-2011 season was limited to 56 games due to a broken hand.
- Datsyuk missed 12 games in 2011-2012, largely due to an arthroscopic right knee surgery.
- Datsyuk missed 37 games in 2013-2014 due to a left knee injury.
Even discounting the broken hand a few years ago, Pavel Datsyuk is a 36-year-old hockey player who has had problems in both knees over the last three years. That doesn’t really inspire a lot of confidence that he’ll be able to put together a healthy campaign.
While the four injuries that Datsyuk has suffered over the last four years are all different body parts (hand, both knees, shoulder), it’s a list of injuries that is growing in a linear trajectory for a guy who was able to stay healthy for most of his career before that.
Older players don’t produce (often)
Depending who you talk to, a forward’s peak years are much, much earlier than 36 years old. In fact, there is evidence it’s over a decade earlier than that. Players slow down, break down, or just flat stop playing hockey.
Over the last five 82-game seasons, going back to 2008-2009, there have been 47 instances of a forward 36 years or older playing at least 75 games. Only 11 of those 47 instances produced a 60-point season. Last year alone, there were 24 players aged 35 or older who played 60 games, and only four of those guys cracked 60 points. Getting to 75 games is one thing for a player that age, producing at an elite level is another.
Of course, if there is one player in that age group that would be a good bet to excel, it’s certainly Pavel Datsyuk. There’s a reason he was a point-per-game guy for years: Datsyuk is simply one of the most talented hockey players of the last 15 years.
Summary
There is reason to be cautious here. He’s being consistently drafted as a top-50 pick, which would put him in the fourth round, very early fifth round of drafts. Does he have more upside than, say, Jason Spezza in a roto league? Not really. Will he be more valuable than Joe Thornton in a points-only league? Doubtful. And yet these guys can be had 1-3 rounds later than Datsyuk. I digress.
The injuries have started piling up over the years, and there are pretty good arbitrage picks (similar production, less investment) with guys like Spezza, Thornton, or Patrice Bergeron depending on the type of league. I will just have to say no to Datsyuk unless his price falls to somewhere in the sixth round of a 12-team league.
*Stats in this article taken from Hockey Reference
