The trade deadline has passed, and the waiver claims are in full swing, but the fantasy baseball trade deadline is rapidly approaching, and time is running out for you to buy or sell your players.
Buying high and selling low are two things you want to avoid, even if you are in dire need. Be sure to check the waiver wire as well.
Each week, XN Sports will have a Buys and Sells column, describing a few players to go after, or to get rid of. We all know to buy low and sell high, but what players should we trade, or who should we go after?
This week’s edition of Buys and Sells:
Sell High
Brett Gardner, New York Yankees
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, or just viciously following the National League only, you have heard about Gardner’s recent power binge. He now has 15 home runs on the season, which is by far a career high (he had 23 career home runs before this season) including five in a seven-game stretch. That is not all Gardner has done this year, however.
He is batting .283 with 72 runs scored to go along with those 15 home runs and 50 runs batted in. Gardner has also stolen 18 bases to add to his value. He is one of five outfielders this season to have double-digit home runs and stolen bases while scoring 72 runs or more. Gardner holds a lot of value, and he has been one of the better fantasy baseball assets this season, so why sell him?
The answer is in the question, “he has been one of the better fantasy baseball assets” tells the entire story. Trade him now at his peak and land other pieces in positions of need. You can find another outfielder somewhere, with players like Josh Reddick and Oscar Taveras on the waiver wire. They will not have as much value as Gardner, but you cannot add a player off the waiver wire at another position that you can get in return for Gardner. Realistically you could ask for Adrian Beltre, Hanley Ramirez, or two pitchers for Gardner, and it would be fair value.
Selling a player high means you expect that player to regress in the near future. Is Gardner a candidate for regression? Of course the power numbers will likely subside, but what about everything else?
Gardner is hitting line drives quite often this year, 24.2 percent of the time to be exact, and he is only hitting fly balls at a rate of 32.6, and with a ridiculous home run to fly ball ratio, a good amount of his fly balls have resulted in beneficial at-bats. Keep in mind, Gardner is one of the faster players in the game, so a ground ball is not the worst-case scenario for him. He has 13 infield hits this season, which is a difference of around 25 points to his batting average. Without those, Gardner is a .260 hitter and he does not score at least five of those runs. He is a fast player, but 13 infield hits in 410 at-bats is a lucky number. Do not expect that pattern to continue.
With the fantasy baseball trade deadline rapidly approaching, see what you can get for Gardner, and if you are satisfied with a potential return, do not be afraid to get rid of him. Top players at other positions are worth a lot more than in the outfield, strictly because there are more players to choose from, and more players who produce good numbers in fantasy baseball. Check out the waiver wire for options, and if you see a viable replacement, trade Gardner and reap the benefits of a late season deal.
Statistics from ESPN.com, Baseball-Reference.com, and Fangraphs.com
