The MLB trade deadline was one of the busier ones in memory. Typically, it’s a time of season that comes and goes without much fanfare, but the 2014 edition was much different.
The Boston Red Sox were no exception to this. With the assumption that the team was out of the playoff race, and rather than risk losing Jon Lester for nothing, their ace pitcher was traded to the Oakland Athletics. As far as fantasy baseball prospects go, even more importantly than Lester being traded to the Athletics was the John Lackey trade to St. Louis. It was important because it made room in the rotation for their most MLB-ready pitching prospect in right-hander Anthony Ranaudo.
The History
While Ranaudo may not be a particularly highly thought of prospect with regards to very respected baseball writers – Keith Law did not have him in his midseason top-50; Ranaudo wasn’t a preseason top-100 for Baseball America; FanGraphs didn’t have Ranaudo in the Red Sox top-10 – there is still a pretty good pedigree behind him.
Ranaudo was drafted out of college in 2010 by the Red Sox in the supplemental round between rounds one and two. This was after being drafted in 2007 out of high school by the Texas Rangers. While he was considered a top-of-the-draft talent, there were a couple of reasons why Ranaudo fell to the first supplemental round. The first was that Ranaudo was/is represented by Scott Boras, the man who wrings more money out of owners than any agent in baseball. The second represents a much bigger issue.
Injuries
It started while Ranaudo was still at Louisiana State University. In 2008, Ranaudo was limited to a role coming out of the bullpen, not uncommon for freshman pitchers. He was limited to just 12 innings pitched that year, though, because of elbow tendinitis. That was just the beginning.
When 2010 rolled around, his draft year, Ranaudo missed over a month with a sore elbow and that had teams nervous going into the draft. Despite the fact that he was seen as a pitcher with top-of-the-rotation upside and stuff, Ranaudo fell because of the aforementioned elbow tendinitis, and consequent elbow “soreness.” These would be precursors to the problems that have plagued Ranaudo since.
Ranaudo bounced back a bit in 2011, staying healthy and posting a 3.97 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 127 innings between A-ball and High-A Salem. The positive thoughts came to an end in 2012 as he suffered what was called “shoulder fatigue” that limited him to 37 innings that season. He went to winter ball that year, and was sent home after suffering a groin injury. The Red Sox said it was more of a precautionary move, but in a five-year span, Ranaudo had now suffered:
- Elbow tendinitis
- Elbow soreness
- Shoulder fatigue
- Groin injury
The injury history was starting to pile up, and none of it indicated a pitcher that would be able to pitch 200 innings at the Major League level.
The Stuff
The reason Ranaudo was so highly touted back in 2010 was that he had a plus fastball that sits in the low-90s and a plus curveball. While a low-90s fastball might not seem like a plus-pitch, Law talked in a scouting report back in 2010 that it was not an easy pitch to pick up out of his hand, and also had some run to it. A low-90s fastball that hitters can’t pick up out of the hand and has good movement is what gives Ranaudo the plus-fastball.
To have two plus-pitches at that age is typically a very good sign for any pitcher. To complement those two pitches, Ranaudo also features a decent changeup. SoxProspects discussed how the changeup can sometimes stay up in the zone when he doesn’t finish his pitch. However, if he can become consistent with that changeup, it can be a devastating pitch that appears to have the same plane as his fastball and then just disappears.
The curveball is his moneymaker. From that same article, it’s discussed how Ranaudo can usually manage to stay on top of his curveball. Being able to do that keeps the pitch from hanging, though he can throw it for a strike when he needs to.
Combine a fastball that has some run with a sharp-breaking curveball and a changeup that, when thrown properly, can disappear, and Ranaudo has everything necessary to be a team’s number-1 or number-2 future starter.
That’s if, if, he can control his pitches – his career minor league walk rate is 3.7 BB/9, and that’s much too high – and if, if, he can stay healthy.
Fantasy Outlook
With Ranaudo already in the rotation now, he has the potential for a lot more value than most prospects will for 2014. The question is whether it’s likely this value comes to fruition.
Not long ago, I had a post about Brewers prospect pitcher Jimmy Nelson. I argued in that piece that Nelson wouldn’t have much positive fantasy impact because he had a career walk rate in the Minors of 3.8 BB/9 (not very far off from Ranaudo’s 3.7). Despite the potential for strikeouts that both Nelson and Ranaudo have, the ratios wouldn’t be sufficient for fantasy.
Since that article, Jimmy Nelson has a 6.46 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. Considering where Ranaudo is pitching, I don’t know if he will be too far off of those numbers. As always, there’s the potential that he out-pitches the regression because he’s only around for two months, but like Nelson, I’m not willing to bet my fantasy seasons on it.
In this sense, I wouldn’t recommend Ranaudo in any sort of small-ish league. He’s obviously a must in AL-Only formats, but I wouldn’t pick him up in any redraft league that’s smaller than 16 teams.
*As always, thanks to FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and The Baseball Cube for their resources.
