It seemed like the 2014 NFL Draft was taking forever to get here. And it was. But we’re now over a month detached from the draft’s completion, which gives us a good time to look at some updated 2-QB ADP data.
You can download a spreadsheet with the most recent post-draft 2014 2-QB data here: Post-Draft 2014 2-QB ADP. The spreadsheet is separated into two pages: Overall ADP, and Positional ADP. Eight 2-QB mock drafts make up the data, and it’s a combo of pre-draft mocks and post-draft mocks. A small sample size yes, but it’s all we got.
There are a few 2-QB mocks that are currently in the midst of being drafted, so we’ll be able to update the data again not too long from now. Thanks to the magical ADP powers of Étienne Groulx we can delve into this 2-QB ADP data for now.
With the 2-QB ADP data we have, I wanted to highlight which rounds quarterbacks are being drafted on average, and look at different strategies to take in 2-QB drafts.
Below you can see the 2-QB ADP of just the signal callers that have been drafted, and following the table I have broken them down into tiers based on a 2-QB league the size of 12 teams.
|Robert Griffin III||33.3||QB9|
Round 1 (Picks 1 -12)
*Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees
The first thing we notice is the big-three of Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees has turned into the big-four, with the addition of Andrew Luck. If you want one of the top three (four) fantasy quarterbacks, you’re going to have to most likely pay the cost of a first round draft pick, which tends to be the norm in 2-QB leagues.
Round 2 (Picks 13-24)
*Matthew Stafford, Nick Foles, Cam Newton
Next up we have Matthew Stafford, Nick Foles, and Cam Newton in the round two-ish tier (depending on league size). Just like the top-four quarterbacks, you’re still going to have to spend a high pick on any of these three signal callers.
If you’re picking at the back end of the first round, and want an elite QB1, circling this tier on your draft cheat sheet and taking one with your second pick might be the way to go. The probability of any of these three lasting into the back end of the third round when you pick again is unlikely.
Round 3 (Picks 25-36)
*Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Tony Romo, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick
This tier is more crowded than the first two, and lumps together the rest of the QB1s. You could also rename this the Tier of Warts, as each quarterback listed has some sort of concern attached to their name.
Can Ryan bounce-back with Julio and Roddy? Can RG3 revert to his rookie playing ways? Will Tony Romo’s back injury be a thing of the past when the season starts? Is Tom Brady slipping or can he get back to his elite fantasy status? Can Wilson and Kaepernick find themselves in offenses that aren’t so run-heavy? These questions and more on the next episode of As The Fantasy Football World Turns.
Round 4 (Picks 37-48)
It’s been said before, by many smarter fantasy writers than me, but if you combine the fantasy points scored of Jay Cutler and Josh McCown in 2013 you get fantasy’s QB3. Marc Trestman is still around, and McCown is gone. What can a healthy Cutler do over the span of 16 whispering games? As the 14th quarterback off the board, Cutler has the potential to outperform his current 2-QB ADP by a large margin.
Round 5 (Picks 49-60)
*Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton
Two surprise top-ten fantasy quarterbacks from a year ago are being drafted within close distance of each other. If you like to take two quarterbacks early, but don’t want to go QB-QB, drafting an elite QB1 in the first few rounds, and then waiting on Rivers or Dalton could be an option.
It’s also around this time that 2-QBers taking a sort of LRQB approach to their draft should consider selecting a QB1. Waiting until round five to grab your first quarterback should mean you have a pretty stacked team elsewhere, and adding Rivers/Dalton to the fold can be the first step towards assembling your LRQB stable.
Round 6 (Picks 61-72)
*Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Tannehill, Johnny Manziel, Alex Smith
This is where things get interesting. You have Ben Roethlisberger, who seems to find himself amongst the top fantasy scoring quarterbacks by season’s end most years. Roethlisberger finished as QB11 in standard leagues last season, and that was with a so-so first half. From Week 1 to Week 8, he averaged 13.46 fantasy points/week. From Week 9 to Week 17 he averaged 18.52 fantasy points/per week. He also put up six top-12 fantasy scoring weeks during the second half of the season.
Drafting Ryan Tannehill comes down to whether you believe he’ll continue his upward trend in completion percentage, passing yards, TDs, and rushing yards, and if new OC Bill Lazor will bring a Philadelphia cream cheese lite style of offense to Miami. If you think he’s nothing more than a middle-of-the-road QB2 then you’ll pass for cheaper options you can draft later.
Johnny Manziel has the potential to be an every week starting fantasy quarterback because of his rushing potential. We saw how RG3 wowed the NFL and fantasy owners his first season. That’s a lofty goal to set, but Money Manziel could make you money this year if you buy in early and he runs his way to fantasy glory.
The Alex Smith experiment worked out in 2013, eh? Smith became a streaming darling in 1-QB leagues, and was also an important part of many 2-QB teams. Read why Denny Carter says Smith is “clearly shaping up to be a magnificent matchup (streaming) play for those who don’t invest in high-end signal callers.” He’s almost in the QB3 tier again this year, and if he falls that fall in your 2-QB draft you have to take him.
Round 7 (Picks 73-84)
Round 8 (Picks 85-96)
If you haven’t taken your QB2 at this point, keep waiting, as there are better options later you can draft at a lower cost than Flacco.
Round 9 (Picks 97-108)
*Sam Bradford, Eli Manning, Teddy Bridgewater, Carson Palmer
Carson Palmer’s ADP is kind of ridiculous in 2-QB leagues, and I don’t envision him going so late in 2-QB drafts the closer we get to the regular season.
Round 10 (Picks 109-120)
*Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel, Josh McCown
Josh McCown doesn’t have Marc Trestman anymore, but he lands in a cushy situation with Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans catching passes. McCown doesn’t cost much at the moment, and if you’re afraid he might lose his job to Mike Glennon you can always draft both.
Round 11 (Picks 121-132)
*Brian Hoyer, Jake Locker
I’ve written before about how I thought Hoyer could be a decent QB2 option in 2-QB leagues. Then the Browns drafted Johnny Manziel. There’s no guarantee Manziel will start, and the Browns could be without Josh Gordon, but Hoyer as a QB3 option is a relatively affordable one. Brandon Weeden/Jason Campbell/Hoyer combined to score 245.14 standard fantasy points last season, which would have put them at QB17. However, that was with Josh Gordon for the majority of the season, and under the tutelage of Rob Chudzinski/Norv Turner.
We have a small sample size of Jake Locker games from last season, but at one point he had three straight top-10 fantasy scoring performances. If you think Locker was putting things together last year, and can ignore his injury history, he could flirt with low-end QB1/high-end QB2 numbers. I’m buying Locker this year, with his 2-QB ADP of QB30, and Ken Whisenhunt in town (who has coached Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner, and Philip Rivers). He’s also surrounded by a few decent pass catching options in Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, and Delanie Walker. Don’t forget the Konami Code, too.
Round 12 (Picks 133-144)
*Michael Vick, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Matt Schaub, Mike Glennon
Fitzpatrick and Schaub are the only starting quarterbacks in this tier. Well, at least Fitzpatrick is. Schaub has rookie Derek Carr to worry about. The rest are all back-ups you should keep an eye on, either during your draft as a QB3/QB4 or on the waiver wire, if they make it that far.
Round 13 (Picks 145-156)
*Brock Osweiler, Geno Smith
Geno Smith at QB38 will not be something you see in any 2-QB leagues this year, as long as the coaching staff in New York stays true to their word that he’s the starting quarterback. He should be bumped up in the 2-QB tier.
That’s the quarterback breakdown of the 2-QB ADP. Hopefully it helps you out in some way with your 2-QB draft prep.
*Stats used in this article from FantasyData.com
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