It won’t be a textbook contrarian move to draft running backs with your first couple picks in 2014 fantasy football drafts, but with elite wide receivers inching up draft boards, there will be a good amount of value for a handful of top-end runners.
Last season saw running backs selected with an astounding nine of the first 10 picks in re-draft leagues, and 12 of the first 20 picks overall. The fear of missing out on workhorse runners was palpable, and as we know, it’s fear that creates markets begging to be exploited.
Those sought-after backs included the unmitigated disasters known as Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, and C.J. Spiller, along with the crumbling workhorse Arian Foster. Fantasy owners are now as afraid of wasting another high pick on a runner as they were of failing to secure one last summer.
Hence, the rise of reliably great wide receivers.
Read more about 2014 fantasy equity scores…
Tony Romo, Alex Smith, and late-round quarterback equity scores
Fantasy equity scores: Antonio Gates edition
Wide receiver equity score all-stars
A measly four of the first 10 players off the board are running backs, according to MyFantasyLeague average draft position (ADP) data. Fully 11 of the first 20 players off the draft board are wide receivers — an unthinkable percentage just one year ago.
Fear has flipped the fantasy football market on its head for 2014.
It’s when we cut against the grain of conventional thought that we’re able to best exploit market inefficiencies. Those who secured 2013 discounts on the game’s most dominant wide receivers would agree.
We still have to know which running backs provide the most fantasy equity — the gap between where they’re being valued and how they might finish among runners in 2014. Equity scores measure that gap. If a runner, for example, is drafted as the seventh back off the draft board with a projection that would put him at RB12 come season’s end, he would achieve a -5 equity score.
As per usual, I’ve created two projections for each of the top-12 runners. The median projection has turned out to be pretty conservative, as you’ll see, while the high projections aren’t unrealistically rosy by any stretch. I’ve once again used the rotoViz similarity score app as a baseline for each projection, with necessary tweaks to players with small sample sizes or changing circumstances.
| Player | Current ADP | Median equity score | High equity score |
| Jamaal Charles | RB1 | -2 (RB3) | 0 (RB1) |
| LeSean McCoy | RB2 | -2 (RB4) | 0 (RB2) |
| Adrian Peterson | RB3 | -8 (RB11) | -1 (RB4) |
| Eddie Lacy | RB4 | -9 (RB13) | -1 (RB5) |
| Matt Forte | RB5 | 0 (RB5) | 3 (RB2) |
| Doug Martin | RB6 | -8 (RB14) | -1 (RB7) |
| Le’Veon Bell | RB7 | -1 (RB8) | 3 (RB4) |
| Gio Bernard | RB8 | -4 (RB12) | 3 (RB5) |
| Marshawn Lynch | RB9 | 0 (RB9) | 2 (RB7) |
| DeMarco Murray | RB10 | 4 (RB6) | 7 (RB3) |
| Zac Stacy | RB11 | -1 (RB12) | 3 (RB8) |
| Montee Ball | RB12 | 2 (RB10) | 7 (RB5) |
- Maybe it’s the spotty injury history, maybe it’s the Cowboys’ inexplicable refusal to use him for large swaths of games, but Murray’s ADP should be a polite slap in your degenerate face. Murray, who finished sixth among backs in 2013 despite missing two games, notched .49 fantasy points per opportunity — higher than guys like Forte, McCoy, and Lacy. He’s a force in the passing game; a fact that won’t escape new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, who pledges some sort of commitment to the running game in 2014. “Things that were done last year in the running game with DeMarco, the running style that was created here is really a good fit,” Linehan said recently on 105.3 The Fan. “That’s going to be our strength, being able to lean on that running game a little bit more than they have in the past.” I’d happily pass on the first nine runners to land Murray at his current ADP.
- I’ve said that it would be an upset for Ball to finish outside of the top-6 running backs in 2014, even if his post-Peyton prospects are murky at best. Manning’s workhorse running backs have averaged 1,518 total yards and 10.4 touchdowns over the past decade and a half. There’s no reason to believe Ball can’t exceed his ADP by a good margin. Those fixated on talent will likely pass on Ball because he’s not particularly shifty and lacks breakaway speed. Don’t let that deter you. Remember that Knowshon Moreno isn’t very good, and he finished as fantasy’s No. 4 runner in Peyton’s backfield.
- I anticipate a Neo-like rejection of reality when people take a gander at Peterson’s equity scores. No, you say, he’s not human. He’s a robot, AD, he’s All Day, he’s Purple Jesus. He has the knees of a newborn baby. Peterson’s efficiency took a nosedive last year, dropping from an average of .54 fantasy points per opportunity from 2010-2012 to .43 in 2013, according to Pro Football Focus’ metrics. Perhaps a spike in passing game involvement — as new offensive head man Norval Turner has promised — will make Peterson’s equity scores look foolish in 2014. Peterson would have to drop into the RB6/7 range before he landed on my re-draft squads, and that ain’t happening. I struggle to take a bullish stance on a 29-year-old back with more than 2,200 career touches.
- Pumping the brakes on Stacy is hardly new in fantasy circles. I think his equity scores reinforce the hesitancy many have in burning an early round pick on the creature of massive volume.
- Jamaal Charles’ high projections is almost literally off the charts. His best case scenario would put him at 399 PPR points — 20 points higher than his remarkable 2013 output, and 52 points better than Peterson’s 2012 total.
CDCarter13 Shhh. Articles like this are going to make is less likely I snag Murray this year. 🙁
CDCarter13 great article. Thoughts on keeping Stacy for a 13th? Feel like he’s good value there. We can only keep players for one year.
jersmith05 Thanks Jeremy. Yeah, that’s an unbelievable value.
CDCarter13 can u please rate the top 4 RBs?
Jeff_FF1 You mean according to ADP?
CDCarter13 no. Interested how u rank the top 4.
Jeff_FF1 Has to be Jamaal, McCoy, Forte and Murray, in that order.
CDCarter13 where do u have AP? Is he so low due to injury risk or do u think he’s not top 4 based on healthy production?
Jeff_FF1 I won’t make ranks for another 2 weeks, but I’d put AD at RB6/7 right now. https://www.xnsports.com/2014/05/22/fantasy-football-demarco-murray-montee-ball-running-back-equity-scores/
CDCarter13 how are the samples for the similarity scores compiled?
CDCarter13 do these projections take into account the fact that Jamaal lost 3/5 of his OL?
Jeff_FF1 The algorithm doesn’t account for those factors, though I tried to adjust for it (along with natural regression).
BOSUNC07 Here’s a good explanation: http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/03/primer-on-using-the-similarity-score-apps/
CDCarter13 TY. Asked earlier if u liked taking Jimmy Graham in the late 1st or if u went RB/WR instead?
Jeff_FF1 I wouldn’t begrudge someone for taking Graham in the 1st of a PPR league. I tend never to land him though.
CDCarter13 this is an interesting piece, which leads me to ask another keeper question. 3 of Dez,Alf,Lacy,Alshon. – non ppr
CDCarter13 in a 250 budget auction league how high would you go? He went for 33$ last yr?
CDCarter13 I play standard. Took him in a mock. The math was positive but viscerally I didn’t like the downgrade at both WR & RB
CDCarter13 thank you
therealmattymac Dez, Alshon and Lacy for me. Shameless plug: http://draftdayconsultants.com
FFRittle Thanks Rittler.
FFRittle Only for one DM.
CDCarter13 FFRittle Gotta sign up for DraftConsultInc for more.
CDCarter13 Dexters_Library spidr2ybanana I’m not scared of Martin. My RB11 & may near 18 carries/gm. If he falls there, I won’t shy away.
KyleWachtel Dexters_Library spidr2ybanana I’m on board at RB11/12. I can’t go in at RB6 though.
CDCarter13 KyleWachtel Dexters_Library how about rb8 and a month’s worth of hair care product?
spidr2ybanana KyleWachtel Dexters_Library Done!
AsherMolk CDCarter13 Dexters_Library spidr2ybanana I was shocked by his ADP. Figured he would be a bargain post-hype sleeper.
AsherMolk CDCarter13 Dexters_Library spidr2ybanana And isn’t his situation this year at least marginally worse, even if line is healthy?
patrickkeefe Line isn’t even healthy- G Carl Nicks is ? with chronic toe injury. I don’t love the Sims drafting and Tedford hiring either
patrickkeefe AsherMolk Dexters_Library spidr2ybanana At Martin’s ADP, you’re banking on efficiency awfully close to his 2012 campaign.
AsherMolk That’s exactly what I was thinking. At his current price, I’d rather touch Carl’s MRSA toe.
CDCarter13 patrickkeefe AsherMolk spidr2ybanana I feel like his ADP isn’t indicative of where he’ll actually go. Too many ppl burned.
CDCarter13 patrickkeefe AsherMolk spidr2ybanana Agreed it’s too high, but feel like there’s bounce-back ability. I’d roll dice.
Dexters_Library patrickkeefe AsherMolk spidr2ybanana Yeah, I could see him dropping to RB 8/9 by late August.