In 2009, Grant Green was the 13th overall player picked in the MLB Amateur Draft. In 2011, Baseball Prospectus ranked Green the No. 49 prospect in the minors. Then, in 2012, they ranked him No. 100. Then, in 2013, they stopped caring.
It’s been a while since any hype has been attributed to Green. Last season he was even traded by the A’s in their own division to the Angels for Alberto Callaspo. This week, when Green was called up from Triple-A, it was without any of the fanfare the second baseman-turned-utility man would have received if the call came three years ago.
That doesn’t mean Green doesn’t deserve a look.
First, in 40 games for the Angels last season, Green posted a solid .280 batting average, a home run, 10 extra-base hits, 16 RBI, and 16 runs. Extrapolate that over 160 games and you have a guy eligible at second base (and will be eligible in the outfield assuming he gets some time there with J.B. Shuck struggling) with 40 extra-base hits, 64 RBI, and 64 runs, not to mention a solid batting average. That’s also assuming the 26-year-old doesn’t develop and plays at the same level as his first Major League action, which is unlikely.
His small sample size is solid but ultimately inconclusive. It’s his minor league numbers that, despite his lack of top prospect status, really inspire some hope.
First, the batting average. All Green does is hit. He batted .318 in his first season at High-A, .291 in his first season at Double-A, .296 in his first season at Triple-A, .326 in Triple-A last season, and is batting a healthy .349 through 26 games this season. With a .280 batting average in limited time last season and a career .309 average in the minors, there’s nothing to suggest that Green is anything but a .280+ hitter.
Second, the extra-base hits. While he peaked with 20 home runs in his very first year in the minors, he hasn’t really replicated that season since. He did hit 15 home runs in 125 games in 2012 and 11 homers in 93 games last season so he doesn’t project as a guy with big pop but is certainly able to contribute the occasional homer and the second base position isn’t exactly overflowing with power. He has two home runs so far this year in Triple-A.
The doubles stand out though. He has averaged 52 extra-base hits over his three full seasons in the minors, added 42 over 93 games last season, and already has 11 extra-base hits through his first 109 at-bats this year.
The extra-base hits make up for his lack of “true power”, allowing him to score and drive in runs at a significantly higher rate than singles-hitters who bat a similar .300. Over his three full seasons in the minors, he has averaged 75 RBI and 85 runs per year. He already has 28 RBI and 18 runs so far this season. A second baseman who can drive in 75, score about the same, and bat close to .300 is basically the best you’re going to hope for outside of the top two or three second basemen in the MLB.
More so, Green is expected to play some outfield with J.B. Shuck struggling, which would give him added flexibility for fantasy lineups, but his real value is as a second baseman since it’s a hard spot to fill for most teams.
With all that said, I wouldn’t rush out and grab Green on the potential that he may play regularly and produce near the rates we’ve seen in the minors. Thanks to the fact that he is no longer a “top prospect” or has much hype, you won’t have to race other owners to the waiver wire. Let’s see what Green can do first but keep a close eye on him. At the first sign of success, go ahead and pull the trigger.
